EPAC: ALETTA - Post Tropical

[HURAKAN]

first of the season!

[HURAKAN]

generally moving NW over the next few days

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[Chacor]

Season's warming up early. Four days to the official start…

[RL3AO]

Has the "look" of one of those 45kt early season EPAC storms that goes eight advisories before dying a quick death in highly sheared cold water.

/end top quality analysis

[cycloneye]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep201290_model.gif

generally moving NW over the next few days

Here is the text.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC FRI MAY 11 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902012) 20120511 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120511 1200 120512 0000 120512 1200 120513 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.7N 104.8W 9.6N 105.8W 10.0N 106.7W 10.0N 107.8W
BAMD 8.7N 104.8W 9.4N 105.9W 10.0N 106.9W 10.5N 107.9W
BAMM 8.7N 104.8W 9.4N 106.0W 9.8N 106.9W 10.0N 107.7W
LBAR 8.7N 104.8W 9.7N 105.6W 11.1N 106.5W 12.8N 107.9W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120513 1200 120514 1200 120515 1200 120516 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 108.9W 9.4N 111.1W 8.9N 112.4W 9.9N 113.2W
BAMD 10.8N 108.9W 11.4N 111.1W 11.7N 113.3W 12.3N 115.0W
BAMM 10.0N 108.6W 9.9N 110.2W 9.4N 111.6W 10.0N 112.9W
LBAR 14.2N 109.0W 17.4N 110.8W 19.6N 111.3W 21.3N 109.2W
SHIP 44KTS 53KTS 51KTS 53KTS
DSHP 44KTS 53KTS 51KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 104.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 8.5N LONM12 = 104.2W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 8.3N LONM24 = 103.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[CrazyC83]

Models give us Tropical Storm Aletta already...if we can get storms now, a long season ahead perhaps?

[cycloneye]

Compared to the first run,this 18:00 UTC run is less strong.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1809 UTC FRI MAY 11 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902012) 20120511 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120511 1800 120512 0600 120512 1800 120513 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 104.7W 9.8N 105.4W 10.1N 106.1W 10.0N 107.0W
BAMD 8.9N 104.7W 9.9N 105.5W 10.6N 106.3W 11.2N 107.2W
BAMM 8.9N 104.7W 9.8N 105.5W 10.3N 106.1W 10.5N 106.6W
LBAR 8.9N 104.7W 10.0N 105.3W 11.5N 106.3W 13.1N 107.6W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120513 1800 120514 1800 120515 1800 120516 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 108.0W 10.2N 109.7W 11.1N 111.5W 12.6N 113.9W
BAMD 11.6N 108.2W 12.5N 109.9W 13.8N 112.1W 15.9N 114.2W
BAMM 10.8N 107.2W 11.3N 108.4W 12.2N 110.4W 13.9N 112.8W
LBAR 14.5N 108.7W 17.5N 110.5W 19.6N 111.1W 21.2N 108.6W
SHIP 42KTS 46KTS 43KTS 39KTS
DSHP 42KTS 46KTS 43KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 104.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 104.5W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 103.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 110NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Invest 90E:



NOAA has a floater up for this one...will likely be declared Invest 91E soon.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90E:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... CdyfL9.jpg

NOAA has a floater up for this one...will likely be declared Invest 91E soon.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... FqnqPj.jpg

Hi 13. A step further as if the models GFS and ECMWF are right,92E may be not far away from being up for next week east of the other two.In other words,a early busy EPAC season is in the cards. See global models discussion thread at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&hilit=&p=2222402#p2222402

[Yellow Evan]

first of the season!

Not if you count the one near 180 last month

[Yellow Evan]

Invest 90E:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... CdyfL9.jpg

NOAA has a floater up for this one...will likely be declared Invest 91E soon.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... FqnqPj.jpg

Hi 13. A step further as if the models GFS and ECMWF are right,92E may be not far away from being up for next week east of the other two.In other words,a early busy EPAC season is in the cards. See global models discussion thread at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&hilit=&p=2222402#p2222402

not necessarily, see 2007 and 2010.

[Yellow Evan]

Has the "look" of one of those 45kt early season EPAC storms that goes eight advisories before dying a quick death in highly sheared cold water.

/end top quality analysis

Aletta 06 maybe?

[HURAKAN]

Not if you count the one near 180 last month

That was the central pacific

[cycloneye]

Discussion by NHC at 22:05 UTC:

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 51122.tdsc

TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION HAVE EVOLVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE NEAR 09N105.5W AND A SECOND
NEAR 09N105.5W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN IN
AGREEMENT THAT PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. RECENTLY...THE WESTERN-MOST LOW HAS
MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME SHORT BANDS...BUT
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS SLOWLY REACHING NEAR
THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...THE MORE EASTERN LOW DOES
NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A
PARTIAL 1646 UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT SUGGEST A WELL DEFINED
CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY INSISTENT DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS THIS THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY. THIS SYSTEM IS
BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT

[Yellow Evan]

Not if you count the one near 180 last month

That was the central pacific

which I consider part of the EPAC

[HURAKAN]

Not if you count the one near 180 last month

That was the central pacific

which I consider part of the EPAC

And I don't!

[JonathanBelles]

Not if you count the one near 180 last month

That was the central pacific

which I consider part of the EPAC

As defined by and quoted from the National Hurricane Operations Plan:

-- Eastern Pacific Ocean (north of the equator and east of 140°W). Advisories are
the responsibility of the Director, NHC, Miami, FL. The NHC will consult with
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Pearl Harbor, HI, prior to issuing
initial and final advisories and prior to issuing any advisory that indicates a
significant change in forecast of intensity or track from the previous advisory.
Exchange of information is encouraged on subsequent warnings when significant
changes are made or otherwise required.
-- Central Pacific Ocean (north of the equator between 140°W and 180°). Advisories
are the responsibility of the Director, Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC),
Honolulu, HI. In addition to the main Hawaiian Islands, CPHC also issues
watches and warnings for Johnston Atoll, Midway, and the northwest Hawaiian
Islands. The CPHC will consult with JTWC prior to issuing initial and final
advisories and prior to issuing any advisory that indicates a significant change in
forecast of intensity or track from the previous advisory. Exchange of
information is encouraged on subsequent warnings when significant changes are
made or otherwise required.

[Yellow Evan]

That was the central pacific

which I consider part of the EPAC

As defined by and quoted from the National Hurricane Operations Plan:

-- Eastern Pacific Ocean (north of the equator and east of 140°W). Advisories are
the responsibility of the Director, NHC, Miami, FL. The NHC will consult with
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Pearl Harbor, HI, prior to issuing
initial and final advisories and prior to issuing any advisory that indicates a
significant change in forecast of intensity or track from the previous advisory.
Exchange of information is encouraged on subsequent warnings when significant
changes are made or otherwise required.
-- Central Pacific Ocean (north of the equator between 140°W and 180°). Advisories
are the responsibility of the Director, Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC),
Honolulu, HI. In addition to the main Hawaiian Islands, CPHC also issues
watches and warnings for Johnston Atoll, Midway, and the northwest Hawaiian
Islands. The CPHC will consult with JTWC prior to issuing initial and final
advisories and prior to issuing any advisory that indicates a significant change in
forecast of intensity or track from the previous advisory. Exchange of
information is encouraged on subsequent warnings when significant changes are
made or otherwise required.

I'm not starting up that argument like I did last year. See Fernanda's archives in 2011 if you want to see it. Anyway, 91E has now formed.

[Yellow Evan]

Slowing consolidating. Looks like pre-Adrain/Beatriz 11 or Andres 09 .