2012 EPAC season

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC looks interesting right now.

[Kingarabian]

Not necessarily. 2010 started off fast including a Category 5 and Category 3 in June and then there was pretty much nothing.

T'was a La-Nina year.

[Yellow Evan]

If you want to know the last time a neutral/El Nino year had a collapse, it was 1977, unless you count 2008 as a collapse.

[Hurricane Jed]

I wouldn't count 2008 as a collapse. Granted most of the storms were weak but there were 17 that formed. Wouldn't 1996 work better? Neutral and only 9 total storms?

[Yellow Evan]

I wouldn't count 2008 as a collapse. Granted most of the storms were weak but there were 17 that formed. Wouldn't 1996 work better? Neutral and only 9 total storms?

Forgot about 1996. It got 3 landfalling storms in 10 days. I guess it it similar to 2007 (2 storms in May) or 2010 (3 storms in June, 1 in May) or 1977 (had most of it's TC's in June, May, or July). Odd of the season having a junky finish is 10% IMO.

[cycloneye]

We may see a third invest (92E) in comming days as all the area south of Central America looks primed and the models are showing a strong system by late next week.

[Yellow Evan]

We may see a third invest (92E) in comming days as all the area south of Central America looks primed and the models are showing a strong system by late next week.

ENCWF thinks it will be a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

Here's a look at the wind velocity analysis. From right to left, you have that thingy, 90E, and then 91E.

[Kingarabian]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF

Here's a look at the wind velocity analysis. From right to left, you have that thingy, 90E, and then 91E.

Lets go then!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think Invest 90E has a better shot at development than Invest 91E. Above that however, I believe that disturbance east of both of those, that I will refer to as pre-92E, has a better shot than either 90E or 91E.

The GFS makes it a strong tropical storm and the ECMWF makes it a hurricane.

[Ntxw]

As advertised the EPAC is getting active. Will be interesting to follow! I'm betting ACE will be high out of this region. Even though the MJO is currently weak, what there is of it is making a return to the western hemisphere thus giving some validity to tropical activity here.

[Yellow Evan]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF

Here's a look at the wind velocity analysis. From right to left, you have that thingy, 90E, and then 91E.

Lets go then!

Yeah, go EPAC. Nothing wrong with the EPAC for coming alive a month early.

[euro6208]

my forecast for this year:

17/7/4

[Macrocane]

One thing is sure, in Central America we don't want another tropical cyclone close to our coast, we had enough disasters in the last 3 seasons with 2009 invest 96E, 2010 Agatha and 2011 TD 12E. We're watching this closely.

[Yellow Evan]

One thing is sure, in Central America we don't want another tropical cyclone close to our coast, we had enough disasters in the last 3 seasons with 2009 invest 96E, 2010 Agatha and 2011 TD 12E. We're watching this closely.

Don't forget Alma of 08.

[cycloneye]

We could see 92E soon if this area east of 90E continues to persist.



Upoaded with imageshack

[Yellow Evan]

And there is a wave behing 92E? Any models have anything on that?

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Good chance for powerful hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

And 90E is at 80%.

[cycloneye]

Maybe I am wrong about this, but if I remember,the last TC that formed in the EPAC before May 15 was in 1996.