ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

And now the 30 day SOI being around -8 a week ago has made a big uptick,and it has gone positive. The big question is if this trend will continue or it will crash again.

[Kingarabian]

I don't understand the uptick tho. SST's are getting warmer and trade winds are not too strong?

[Kingarabian]

Daily SOI is sharply up as well.

[cycloneye]

The Australian model POAMA that was in Neutral conditions thru the Northern Hemisphere Summer and Fall,now is up to Weak El Nino from July thru October and Moderate El Nino after that time. I know the folks in Texas and in the Deep South states will be delighted to have El Nino for next Winter and already yes, already there is a Texas Winter 2012-2013 thread at the Winter Forum.

[Ntxw]

^ Thanks for the update, us folks certainly are excited for that outcome

I did not see the latest rise in SOI coming, unless something changes my thoughts of a mid May MJO wave looks bleak atm...

[ROCK]

The Australian model POAMA that was in Neutral conditions thru the Northern Hemisphere Summer and Fall,now is up to Weak El Nino from July thru October and Moderate El Nino after that time. I know the folks in Texas and in the Deep South states will be delighted to have El Nino for next Winter and already yes, already there is a Texas Winter 2012-2013 thread at the Winter Forum.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/ ... nino34.png

they are hedging their bets.... its going to be very close call as we approach the peak.

[NDG]

^ Thanks for the update, us folks certainly are excited for that outcome

I did not see the latest rise in SOI coming, unless something changes my thoughts of a mid May MJO wave looks bleak atm...at least subsurface temp anomalies continue to rise and now pretty much covers the entire basin just need an upwell mechanism.

Side note: I read something on Accuweather that off the coasts of Peru and Chile fish and marine life have been dying off in the masses which in the past have signaled El Nino since stagnant warm waters lack nutrients.

http://www.accuweather.com/en...64883

It sounds like more like a virus.

http://dawn.com/2012/05/09/alarm-as-per ... aths-rise/

[NDG]

Up to 3.03 today, the SOI.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[Ntxw]

It sounds like more like a virus.

http://dawn.com/2012/05/09/alarm-as-per ... aths-rise/

I wouldn't buy the virus theory If it was one species maybe but spread out over a large mass/area and different marine life I think it's a chain. The state thinks it could be virus but I would give more credit to the biologists (stated in your link) that starvation is what they believe. No anchovies (warmer waters) it trickles down the line. But that's off topic and for another discussion.

SOI indeed is still rising yet. The next ENSO update will be fascinating to see what outcome. MJO is still dead with no concentrated activity shown picking up by the models. I had that idea completely wrong last month for this month.

[wxman57]

CPC models are now MUCH more bullish on a stronger El Nino this summer:

[vbhoutex]

Neutral through the summer months?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[cycloneye]

Neutral through the summer months?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Is still uncertain what will occur after the Summer as the ENSO models forecast on long range are less reliable.

http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2

[Ptarmigan]

Seasonal Climate Forecast May – July 2012
http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/ ... e.pdf?ga=t

Analog years are 1968, 1972, and 2009. Years that went from La Nina to El Nino.

[NDG]

2012 is certainly not looking like 2009 in the last few days, currently the Atlantic MDR looks to have warmed up while the Pacific in 2009 was continuing to warm up faster than currently it is.
Unless things change over the next few weeks.

2009


2012

[Kingarabian]

2012 is certainly not looking like 2009 in the last few days, currently the Atlantic MDR looks to have warmed up while the Pacific in 2009 was continuing to warm up faster than currently it is.
Unless things change over the next few weeks.

Hence why the models predict El-Nino to come by during the ASO period.

[Kingarabian]

Guys what was the PDO averages for April and May? Only recent information I can find was around March.

[ROCK]

CPC models are now MUCH more bullish on a stronger El Nino this summer:

I never heard of the CMC predicting ENSO before thus I am less inclined to go along with it. I think it will be close though com JAS.....not too much worried about Oct for Texas as you can understand. The SSts are there for some early big ones IMO....

[NDG]

2012 is certainly not looking like 2009 in the last few days, currently the Atlantic MDR looks to have warmed up while the Pacific in 2009 was continuing to warm up faster than currently it is.
Unless things change over the next few weeks.

Hence why the models predict El-Nino to come by during the ASO period.

The Euro has been predicting for a weak El Nino as early as late June.

[cycloneye]

And the 30 day SOI continues to rise,tonight up to +4.7.



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[Hurricaneman]

is it possible that the El Nino will be slower to occour because of the +SOI