ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

is it possible that the El Nino will be slower to occour because of the +SOI

If the SOI stays between +8 and -8,then it will remain Neutral. Below is from the Australians ENSO page.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions. The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. The following figure demonstrates the typical fluctuations in SOI over a period of 11 years. Positive SOI values are shown in blue, with negative in orange. Sustained positive values are indicative of La Niña conditions, and sustained negative values indicative of El Niño conditions.

http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/about-weathe ... kmark=enso

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Kingarabian]

Up to 2300 birds found dead along Chile.

Possible correlation with the effects of El-Nino.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/12/world/ame ... ?hpt=hp_t1

[NDG]

Up to 2300 birds found dead along Chile.

Possible correlation with the effects of El-Nino.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/12/world/ame ... ?hpt=hp_t1

The weird thing to this story is that there is no stories from fishermen complaining about having a bad fishing season. Is weird that so many dolphins and pelicans have died as such high numbers fairly much all at once.
I think they are blaming the warm SSTs versus investigating if it is a virus instead.

[NDG]

I have a question for wxman57 regarding the NCEP models CFS and CFSv2. They look very different with those forecasts. Why is that?

CFS:



CFSv2:



Both uploaded with imageshack.us

Hmm, according to the CFSv2 back then, it was forecasting Nino 3.4 to be nearing +.4 deg C by May 15th if you average it out, doubt that it will go from -.1 deg C (May 7th) to +.4 deg C in a week.

[Ntxw]

Peruvian government states Pelican deaths to warmer waters. Western ENSO is not El Nino warm but eastern regions are and seems like it continues to effect marine life.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/11/world/americas/peru-pelicans/

(CNN) -- Warm waters off Peru are to blame in the deaths of more than 5,000 marine birds on the coast, government authorities say.

The Peruvian National Center for the Study of El Nino reported earlier this week that since February the Peruvian coast has had an abundance of warm water as a result of marine currents throughout the world's oceans. The warm water has altered the marine ecosystem, it said.

The warm water has led fish such as anchovy and other species that live in surface waters to migrate to deeper water toward the south. As a result, pelicans and other birds that feed from the surface of the water died of starvation.

"If these oceanographic conditions persist, it is likely that its impact will spread to other areas of the (Peruvian) coast even during the fall, which could make the numbers increase and affect other marine species" said the report.

Looks like the subsurface warm pool may be a player here. Light easterly trades are still present in the western regions as reflective the SOI continues to go positive. Will be interesting to see how the atmosphere (SOI) effects water temperatures in the ENSO regions.

[cycloneye]

And the SOI uptick continues,now up to +4.9.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't know much about El Nino/La Nina calculations, but am I right in thinking that we are much closer to La Nina now than to El Nino?

[cycloneye]

I don't know much about El Nino/La Nina calculations, but am I right in thinking that we are much closer to La Nina now than to El Nino?

Well,if this uptick continues and the index surpasses the +8 line,then yes La Nina.But I dont think this uptick will last too long,We will see.

Here is an explanation about the SOI.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. The following figure demonstrates the typical fluctuations in SOI over a period of 11 years. Positive SOI values are shown in blue, with negative in orange. Sustained positive values are indicative of La Niña conditions, and sustained negative values indicative of El Niño conditions.

http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/about-weathe ... kmark=enso

[NDG]

SOI is up to 5.31 today.

13 May 2012 1013.78 1010.00 17.25 5.31 0.23

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[NDG]

During the past week Region Nino 4 has seen a slight cool down due to the continuing easterly winds in the central and western Pacific.
While Nino 3.4 has at least remained the same.
Like I have said during during the past 2 weeks, we are not seeing a repeat of 2009, at least so far this May, IMO.
I am sure the negative PDO might have something to do with keeping warmer waters at bay.

Current


2009

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/14/12 Update

Nino 3.4 warmed slightly to 0.0C from last week when it was at -0.1C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Cant wait for the Euro!!!

[cycloneye]

The SOI continues to rise with the updated reading at +5.3.

[hurricanetrack]

Wow, just seems to me that if El Nino were coming and coming on strong, it would already be doing so. We're two weeks from the start of the ATL season and conditions are neutral, no question about it. Will that be the case come August 15? Wish I knew for sure, but it seems to me that with the SOI 90 day now at .50 and not heading down, that perhaps this Nino, if at all, will be weak at best. However, 3 to 4 months is a long time, relatively speaking, and it can still happen. For now, the current obs suggest neutral for a few more weeks at least.

[NDG]

ECMWF's May update of its Seasonal range forecast, not as warm through July as earlier months.

[NDG]

Another thing that I have noticed from the latest update is that through August there is more of its ensemble members staying in the neutral zone as compared to last month's.
This gives me confidence of my thinking that if we see an El Nino by late August/early September it will be a weak one.

[Ntxw]

My previous thinking of the MJO jumpstarting in May continues to not verify, the MJO has stayed in the ring of death (weak activity) with no model forecasting any uptick in the foreseeable future. Without a significant MJO/Kelvin wave warm waters will be kept at bay. But all it will take is one big wave, however forecasting the MJO has proven to be a challenge.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

My previous thinking of the MJO jumpstarting in May continues to not verify, the MJO has stayed in the ring of death (weak activity) with no model forecasting any uptick in the foreseeable future. Without a significant MJO/Kelvin wave warm waters will be kept at bay. But all it will take is one big wave, however forecasting the MJO has proven to be a challenge.

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/819/58590950.gif/http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/6753/58590950.gif[/url]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

In other words,a delay of El Nino dominating the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

SOI is up to 5.31 today.

13 May 2012 1013.78 1010.00 17.25 5.31 0.23

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

And the 30 day SOI continues to creep up. tonight at +5.5. At some point it will start to go down.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

SOI is up to 5.31 today.

13 May 2012 1013.78 1010.00 17.25 5.31 0.23

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

The upward swing is over. Now,let's see how far down it goes or it stairsteps up and down.