Global model runs discussion

[Kingarabian]

Ill gladly post it if someone shows me where .

[cycloneye]

ROCK,it was better to not stay up as the EURO still does not have anything in the SW or Western Caribbean on day ten,but it has a weak low in the EPAC.

[Dean4Storms]

I'll say one thing...GFS has been consistent with this but still being 10 days out it could change tomorrow. We get to 5-6 days out and I'll be more concerned.

[tolakram]

Looks like the first EPAC storm may be on the horizon. Will we get one named before the 15th?



This may be the blob in the lower right of this image.

[cycloneye]

The operational ECMWF doesn't have anything so far,but the Ensembles have a hint in the SW Caribbean.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

Also,the Canadian ensembles hint on some type of development or at least plenty of needed moisture for Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

It could be that the GFS is way over doing development and all we see is a trough work its way northward.

[SFLcane]

i'd say theres a better shot for development in the epac.

[cycloneye]

i'd say theres a better shot for development in the epac.

There is a good chance that it may occur as GFS has it and is not long range,but in less than 100 hours.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[wxman57]

GFS is backing off on Caribbean development now. For some reason it was developing a deep upper low over the Caribbean over the past few days and trying to develop a surface feature. It does this a lot in that region this time of year and it's wrong most of the time.

[Kingarabian]

Epac system looks like it's getting deeper.

[boca]

I should of known not to trust ther GFS even in the mid range,shame on me. The EPAC is where the actions going to be in my opinion.

[ROCK]

I should of known not to trust ther GFS even in the mid range,shame on me. The EPAC is where the actions going to be in my opinion.

while I dislike the GFS on some fronts I think the sign of lowering pressures should be taken in to account. Be it EPAC or SWcarib. If we had more model support then I would be all over it but when the CMC doesnt see it then I pretty much know that the GFS is seeing a phantom development. JMO...

[NDG]

The Euro in its 8-10 day range is now starting to show much lower pressures in the western Caribbean with some vorticity, lets see if it gets as aggressive as the GFS over the next few runs.

[cycloneye]

This is from the 10:05 UTC discussion by NHC of the EPAC:

A
COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE NOTED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH...ONE IN THE VICINITY OF 08N112W AND A SECOND IN
THE VICINITY OF 08N104W. MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED
SW TO W WINDS NEAR 20 KT BLOWING INTO THESE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TRYING
TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS A WEAK LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING NW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE UKMET SOLUTION. THE GFS MODEL IS PERHAPS SHOWING
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER...IT IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR TO SEE
THE FIRST SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. MAY 15
MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE TROPICAL SEASON IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC. LONG-TERM AVERAGES OF TROPICAL STORMS...HURRICANES AND
MAJOR HURRICANES IN THIS BASIN ARE 15...9...AND 4 RESPECTIVELY.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 51109.tdsc

[Dean4Storms]

GFS 00z still with the TS in the Carib and bringing it northward into the eastern Gulf this morning. ECMWF showing hints at lowering pressures in the western Carib. in its latest run. It just might get interesting down there. Stay Tuned!

[cycloneye]

This is not invest 90E as what this Euro run shows is more east in longitude. The 12z ECMWF has Hurricane Bud close to the CA coast.

[cycloneye]

Another example of how the models change constantly has occured with the ECMWF as yesterday it had a hurricane just SW of El Salvador and today it has a weak storm.Also,GFS goes back and forth with the Caribbean system,in terms of track and intensity.

[ronjon]

From Dr Jeff Masters Blog today:

In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.

[SFLcane]

cmc now also shows moisture heading for florida just in time for the tip of rainy season.