ATL: INVEST 92L

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

447
WHXX01 KWBC 121826
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120512 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120512  1800   120513  0600   120513  1800   120514  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    33.5N  30.5W   34.2N  31.0W   34.8N  31.7W   34.8N  32.3W
BAMD    33.5N  30.5W   35.2N  30.7W   36.0N  31.5W   36.0N  32.1W
BAMM    33.5N  30.5W   34.8N  30.5W   35.9N  31.0W   36.1N  31.8W
LBAR    33.5N  30.5W   35.5N  29.5W   37.8N  29.2W   39.3N  29.9W
SHIP        45KTS          50KTS          54KTS          53KTS
DSHP        45KTS          50KTS          54KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120514  1800   120515  1800   120516  1800   120517  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    34.2N  32.6W   32.3N  31.2W   32.1N  26.9W   33.0N  19.9W
BAMD    35.5N  32.1W   36.4N  27.2W   41.0N  23.1W   42.7N  17.3W
BAMM    35.5N  32.3W   34.3N  29.4W   37.1N  23.0W   40.3N  15.6W
LBAR    40.8N  31.8W   41.8N  35.7W   39.9N  34.9W   38.7N  27.6W
SHIP        50KTS          42KTS          35KTS          23KTS
DSHP        50KTS          42KTS          35KTS          23KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  33.5N LONCUR =  30.5W DIRCUR =  30DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  31.9N LONM12 =  31.8W DIRM12 = 109DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  33.9N LONM24 =  32.0W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1020MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =   20NM RD34NW =  20NM


[HURAKAN]

why is the map not showing the invests?

[cycloneye]

why is the map not showing the invests?

]http://www.storm2k.org/weather/images/tropical/plotsystemforecast_nt_pz_pa_2012_active_invests_fulltropics_merc_640x280_640_480.jpg

The admins have been trying to fix it but without results.Let's see if they finnally can get to the bottom of it and fix it once and for all.

[Epsilon_Fan]

looks like an itty bitty hurricane... even has an eye feature

[cycloneye]

[senorpepr]

Air mass enhancement image of 92L:

[hurricanefloyd5]

Wow!!

12/1745 UTC 33.5N 30.5W ST3.5 92L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

this has to be a strong tropical storm now a 3.5t number wow

[cycloneye]

Not Sub or Tropical yet,but getting closer.

[Macrocane]

I really like how this systems evolve but I hate all the waiting for the upgrade, so we would have directly STS or TS Alberto if this is upgraded?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I really like how this systems evolve but I hate all the waiting for the upgrade, so we would have directly STS or TS Alberto if this is upgraded?

It needs to acquire subtropical characteristics and deeper convection if it wants a name.

[littlevince]

Hi all, nice to be back for another season.

Look great on visible, but cloud tops are warming

[KatDaddy]

Interesting little system. The 2012 Hurricane Season is not far away.

[cycloneye]

Here is the discussion of 92L by Dr Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground site.

An interesting and surprising hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 400 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands. This low, designated Invest 92L by NHC today, has developed an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, despite the fact that it is over cold ocean waters with temperatures of 66°F (19°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. However, there is quite cold air aloft, so the temperature difference between the surface the upper levels has been great enough to create sufficient instability for 92L to organize. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 63 mph at 1:45 pm EDT Saturday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 50 mph at 2 pm EDT Saturday.


NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a named storm by Monday. They will be reluctant to name it Alberto unless the storm can maintain it's current level of heavy thunderstorm activity for at least 6 - 12 hours. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have weakened some during the afternoon, making it less likely NHC will be inclined to name it; the fact that 92L is over waters of 66°F (19°C) hurts its chances. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 19°C, during Tropical Storm Grace of 2009. Grace holds the record for being the farthest northeast forming tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Like 92L, Grace also formed near the Azores Islands, but in early October. The coldest waters I've seen a hurricane form in were 22°C, for Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. Latest guidance from the computer models show 92L meandering to the south of the Azores through Monday, then beginning a slow motion towards the northeast by Tuesday.

[CrazyC83]

That sure came out of nowhere! ST3.5 would be about 50-55 kt so yes Alberto if upgraded. It looks non-frontal but convection is quite weak.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC/tc12/ATL/ ... .100pc.jpg

[Hurricane Jed]

Performed some quick research and if this does get upgraded to a tropical storm or subtropical storm it would easily be the most easterly forming system prior to the official start of the season.

[wxman57]

Looks like it's on its way out now. Convection dropping off as it begins to accelerate to the north.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Yep, it's on the decline now. It was able to spin up due to instability created by a cold upper low atop 92L and the Sea Surface Temperatures it was over. The system began to transition to a partially warm-core system however and lost that instability. 19C water temperatures aren't warm enough for it to refire more convection.

It was probably a subtropical storm between 1500-1700 UTC.

[Stephanie]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC/tc12/ATL/92L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km/20120512.1645.goes13.x.vis1km.92LINVEST.30kts-1009mb-321N-307W.100pc.jpg

This satellite is pretty impressive. Had a little outflow tail too. Makes you think of what the season really is going to bring.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 92, 2012051300, , BEST, 0, 345N, 307W, 45, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest