EPAC: ALETTA - Post Tropical

[Cyclenall]

I'm a little surprised to see two Epac Invests 3 days before the official start to the season. Even more, some models want to take it to TS intensity. Its about time the Epac produces early May goodies since I started monitoring it back in 2006...another Adolf before June 1st?

[Yellow Evan]

I'm a little surprised to see two Epac Invests 3 days before the official start to the season. Even more, some models want to take it to TS intensity. Its about time the Epac produces early May goodies since I started monitoring it back in 2006...another Adolf before June 1st?

It's Adolph, not Adolf, BTW.

[P.K.]

ABPZ20 KNHC 121433
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

organizing

[Yellow Evan]

The question is, will 91E beat the start of the season?

[Yellow Evan]

err, it's 90E, not 91E.

[Chacor]

I'm a little surprised to see two Epac Invests 3 days before the official start to the season. Even more, some models want to take it to TS intensity. Its about time the Epac produces early May goodies since I started monitoring it back in 2006...another Adolf before June 1st?

It's Adolph, not Adolf, BTW.

Actually, the A name in 2006 and this year is Aletta, not Adolph, which was retired years ago due to political sensitivities.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm a little surprised to see two Epac Invests 3 days before the official start to the season. Even more, some models want to take it to TS intensity. Its about time the Epac produces early May goodies since I started monitoring it back in 2006...another Adolf before June 1st?

It's Adolph, not Adolf, BTW.

Actually, the A name in 2006 and this year is Aletta, not Adolph, which was retired years ago due to political sensitivities.

I think he was referring to Adolph 01/83.

[cycloneye]

18z Best track:

EP, 90, 2012051218, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1053W, 25, 1009, LO

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 121837
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902012) 20120512 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120512  1800   120513  0600   120513  1800   120514  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.9N 105.3W   10.0N 106.0W   10.3N 107.2W   10.6N 108.7W
BAMD     9.9N 105.3W   10.4N 106.0W   10.7N 107.0W   11.1N 108.3W
BAMM     9.9N 105.3W   10.2N 105.7W   10.4N 106.5W   10.7N 107.4W
LBAR     9.9N 105.3W   10.8N 106.1W   11.8N 107.4W   12.9N 108.8W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120514  1800   120515  1800   120516  1800   120517  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.9N 110.2W   11.7N 113.6W   12.7N 117.0W   13.3N 119.9W
BAMD    11.6N 109.4W   13.1N 111.4W   15.6N 112.8W   17.8N 112.4W
BAMM    11.1N 108.7W   12.3N 111.3W   14.0N 114.1W   15.0N 116.0W
LBAR    14.0N 110.0W   16.6N 112.9W   19.3N 114.5W   21.3N 113.4W
SHIP        39KTS          38KTS          28KTS          18KTS
DSHP        39KTS          38KTS          28KTS          18KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.9N LONCUR = 105.3W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =   9.4N LONM12 = 105.1W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =   8.8N LONM24 = 104.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[Macrocane]

Things are getting really interesting in the tropics, it's like someone turned the swicth on before the official start.

[Yellow Evan]

Things are getting really interesting in the tropics, it's like someone turned the swithc one before the official start.

Agreed, it feels like mid-June in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 90, 2012051300, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1054W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

90E is taking its sweet time.

[Cyclenall]

It's Adolph, not Adolf, BTW.

Actually, the A name in 2006 and this year is Aletta, not Adolph, which was retired years ago due to political sensitivities.

I think he was referring to Adolph 01/83.

Yes, I'm referring to the category 4 hurricane in May 2001 known as Hurricane Adolph which I still think is incredible. I have a feeling something like that is going to occur this May in the Epac.

Things are getting really interesting in the tropics, it's like someone turned the swicth on before the official start.

You must be getting pretty excited with all the indicators pointing to a active May in the Epac...maybe hyper. I don't know what it is about May and tropical cyclones, every year I all of a sudden get excited about it (like now) after nothing even though if the same thing was occurring in August, I could care less. A category 5 May hurricane in the Epac this year...can it happen?

Convection is pulsing and I can see some slight rotation occurring with it. I have to admit, this is unusual and I know its just days before the start of the official season BUT its been a long time since something decent has started in the Epac before May 15, add to that the basin is still in the negative PMO (Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation) phase. Specifically for 90E, it does look good but what is crazy is that the NHC is saying "conditions are favorable as it moves NW"; that direction even during the season usually dampens enthusiasm for strengthening!

On the satellite page of the NHC, the floaters are gone and now there is just a link to the other part where the floaters are...why? Despite this, I'm thrilled that they added Rainbow infrared (RBTOP) to the floaters which is one of my favorite schemes that is extremely hard to find and just last year found the only active one which was masked as a volcano monitoring tool. The only location was centered around Puerto Rico but I know there must have been others. The way it showed the features of Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma was incredible. Back to present times, there is no floater yet for 90E; I think its time for it to be added.

I'll post more when the sun rises on this and about the models on 90E.

[cycloneye]

Invest is still alive as Best Track data is released this morning..

EP, 90, 2012051312, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1048W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[RL3AO]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.85pc.jpg

Still producing the convection, but north of the low.

[Yellow Evan]

YE: It's Adolph, not Adolf, BTW.

Actually, the A name in 2006 and this year is Aletta, not Adolph, which was retired years ago due to political sensitivities.

I think he was referring to Adolph 01/83.

Yes, I'm referring to the category 4 hurricane in May 2001 known as Hurricane Adolph which I still think is incredible. I have a feeling something like that is going to occur this May in the Epac.

Things are getting really interesting in the tropics, it's like someone turned the swicth on before the official start.

You must be getting pretty excited with all the indicators pointing to a active May in the Epac...maybe hyper. I don't know what it is about May and tropical cyclones, every year I all of a sudden get excited about it (like now) after nothing even though if the same thing was occurring in August, I could care less. A category 5 May hurricane in the Epac this year...can it happen?

Convection is pulsing and I can see some slight rotation occurring with it. I have to admit, this is unusual and I know its just days before the start of the official season BUT its been a long time since something decent has started in the Epac before May 15, add to that the basin is still in the negative PMO (Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation) phase. Specifically for 90E, it does look good but what is crazy is that the NHC is saying "conditions are favorable as it moves NW"; that direction even during the season usually dampens enthusiasm for strengthening!

On the satellite page of the NHC, the floaters are gone and now there is just a link to the other part where the floaters are...why? Despite this, I'm thrilled that they added Rainbow infrared (RBTOP) to the floaters which is one of my favorite schemes that is extremely hard to find and just last year found the only active one which was masked as a volcano monitoring tool. The only location was centered around Puerto Rico but I know there must have been others. The way it showed the features of Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma was incredible. Back to present times, there is no floater yet for 90E; I think its time for it to be added.

I'll post more when the sun rises on this and about the models on 90E.[/quote]

I'm excited as well. I follow the EPAc much more than the ATL. I wont' be surprised if 92E reaches
Cat 4, idk about Cat 5, you may never know.

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 131541
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM PDT SUN MAY 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND IT HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR MONDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Too weak for Dvorak classifications right now.

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/TE5Ur.png

Shear to kick in in 36 hours.