EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

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invest_ep922012.invest
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040
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201205161137
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922012
EP, 92, 2012051606, , BEST, 0, 97N, 976W, 25, 0, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This one is in a very favorable environment for further intensification. We'll probably get a Code Orange later today depending on how fast it organizes, and Bud by the weekend. Not only does this look like it could surpass Aletta in terms of intensity, but the models take this one into the Mexican coastline as well.

[cycloneye]

First images on NRL. Looking great.

[RL3AO]

Already developing a solid core on that image.

[Yellow Evan]

Bud by the weekend? Bud tonight or tomorrow seems more likely.

[HURAKAN]

Look at the visible loops, LLC on the eastern edge of the convection. Still not as organized as some people may think

[MGC]

Looks like 92E has a bit of a mid level spin. Shear is low...looks like a near ideal environment for development. I agree....look for code orange later today......MGC

[cycloneye]

Code Orange - 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT.]..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

UKMET has an intense cyclone.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.9N 101.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 18.05.2012 10.9N 101.0W WEAK

00UTC 19.05.2012 10.9N 100.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.05.2012 10.9N 99.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.05.2012 10.6N 99.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.05.2012 10.7N 99.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.05.2012 11.1N 99.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.05.2012 11.8N 100.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.05.2012 12.7N 102.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.05.2012 13.5N 103.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... plots.html

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

EP, 92, 2012051618, , BEST, 0, 106N, 977W, 25, 1009, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

I am looking to post the Tropical Model text plots,but the site is not working. Is there another link to get the text of the Bams?

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/

At least I can post graphics of the tracks.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What qualifies as "Intense", Tropics?

[cycloneye]

What qualifies as "Intense", Tropics?

According to that model in particular,it has a hurricane.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Invest 92E has a very favorable environment ahead of it for at least the next 120 hours. I wouldn't be surprised if it underwent rapid intensification at any one time in its lifespan.


TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 2 5 9 12 12 13 12 8 5 13 9 13 13
SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8
700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 79 79 82 81 75 69 69 64 59 53
HEAT CONTENT 59 58 59 59 52 34 28 26 26 28 37 33 34

[CrazyC83]

Looks like this Bud could be a big one?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks like this Bud could be a big one?

Conditions would definitely support an intense hurricane. Whether or not it makes is there is up to the system.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

18Z GFS turns 92E into a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

This is from the 2205 UTC EPAC discussion:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 16 2012

IN THE LONG TERM...THE AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N98W IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH SUN. THIS DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG DEEPENING OF
THE LOW SUN NIGHT AND MON AS A SECOND SURGE OF N-NE WINDS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GIVES ADDED VORTICITY TO THE PRE-EXISTING
CIRCULATION.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 92, 2012051700, , BEST, 0, 110N, 985W, 25, 1009, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Cyclenall]

Remains unchanged:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170534
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

*cut*

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Look at the visible loops, LLC on the eastern edge of the convection. Still not as organized as some people may think

That morning visible was NUTS, convective shape wise. Right now it looks like a pole.

This one is in a very favorable environment for further intensification. We'll probably get a Code Orange later today depending on how fast it organizes, and Bud by the weekend. Not only does this look like it could surpass Aletta in terms of intensity, but the models take this one into the Mexican coastline as well.

I'm not sure if this 92E is the same system that the models are continuing to show major development of because this thing seems to far west already to be the same one. If it moves extremely slowly it might be the same one.

If this is what ALL the models are depicting as a TC, then future Bud will be Big Bud with itself 6 years ago being copied. I'll post more about this in the models thread, but the consistency and agreement amongst all the models is fantastic and basically a guarantee. I'd say future RI looks more likely than not.