EPAC: ALETTA - Post Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Oh well, that was fun for a few days.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161434
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF ALETTA DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. INTERESTINGLY...THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT SUGGESTIVE
OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSED BY THE
SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE
SAME AS EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO INGEST A MUCH DRIER...STABLE AIR MASS AND BE AFFECTED
BY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. THESE NEGATIVE
FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN RAPID WEAKENING
OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW INDICATES THAT
ALETTA WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

THE CENTER OF ALETTA WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT...BUT A 1145
UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08...AND
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. ALETTA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH
OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EASTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT AFTER THAT IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
AT THOSE TIMES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 11.8N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 12.1N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 12.6N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 13.0N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 13.5N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 14.1N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z 14.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 161432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

...ALETTA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 112.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST. ALETTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Kingarabian]

Well she doesn't look like shes weakening.

Final ADT numbers are nearly 3.5

[Kingarabian]

Seems like she brought along a friend.

[senorpepr]

TS Aletta begins to weaken as Invest 92E flares up in the EPAC

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

...ALETTA SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 113.5W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. ALETTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW CONSISTS OF A SHRINKING BALL OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A DISCONNECTED BAND TO THE EAST.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
MAY FINALLY BE TAKING A TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 AT 1800 UTC...IT APPEARS AS IF A WEAKENING
TREND MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT
SINCE A 1643 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF 40-KT VECTORS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALETTA MOVES INTO A
REGION DOMINATED BY AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS.
THESE TWO SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF
THE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR ALETTA TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

CENTER FIXES FROM SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES THIS MORNING AND RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALETTA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING
A MORE WESTERLY MOTION...270/08...THAN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES. UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...
ALETTA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE STORM ERODING AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK OF THE STORM TO TURN
NORTHWARD WITHIN 36 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN TOWARD THE EAST AS IT BECOME EMBEDDED IN
ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36
HOURS AND A BIT MORE EASTWARD/FASTER AT LATER FORECAST TIMES...IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT
PASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 11.4N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 11.7N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 12.4N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 13.1N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 13.6N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z 14.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z 14.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[CrazyC83]

Based on that ASCAT pass and the fact it looked better on satellite last night into this morning, I estimate the peak intensity was 45 kt.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 162035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

...ALETTA SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 113.5W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. ALETTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

In all likelihood we will still have Tropical Storm Aletta at the next advisory.

17/0000 UTC 11.4N 114.1W T2.0/2.5 ALETTA -- East Pacific

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

00Z Best Track:


EP, 01, 2012051700, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1140W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.
A STRONG BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER A SMALL
AREA JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON DVORAK RULES AND THE ASCAT PASS
FROM EARLIER TODAY...WHICH INDICATED THAT ALETTA WAS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN IT LOOKED. DRY AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO
TAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ALETTA SHOULD WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MOST RECENT LGEM RUN AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND
SPEED FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD...280/8...FOR THE TIME BEING. A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. AFTERWARDS...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IS LIKELY TO CARRY ALETTA...OR ITS
REMNANT...EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
IDENTITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 11.5N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 12.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 12.6N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 13.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 14.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 13.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

Crazy,they heard you as atcf increased the winds by 10 kts to 45kts on the 12z and 18z Best Tracks.

EP, 01, 2012051612, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1122W, 45, 1000, TS,
EP, 01, 2012051618, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1131W, 45, 1000, TS,

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Kingarabian]

Shes a warrior.

[CrazyC83]

Interesting, at 12Z (and 06Z) I agree but it may have shown signs of weakening by 18Z.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

CORRECTED STATUS AT 96H IN TABLE

DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND ONLY A FEW SMALL CELLS REMAIN
NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IN FACT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. A
RECENT ASCT PASS MEASURED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS ONLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN...OR THE LACK
OF...ALETTA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. DRY
AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...PERHAPS FASTER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 295/03. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL SOON
DEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A NORTHWARD
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD DRIFT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 11.7N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 12.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 12.5N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 13.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 13.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z 13.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 170831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

...ALETTA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 114.6W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

Brief burst of deep convection going on now northeast of the LLC.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

...ALETTA MOVING SLOWLY AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 114.8W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...A NEW BURST OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER
OF ALETTA. THE BURST IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSIENT...AS ALETTA IS
EXPERIENCING 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR TO THE WEST BEING ENTRAINED INTO
THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THIS COMBINATION...ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO
DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 H OR LESS. ONE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS TO ADD A 96 H POINT...AS THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
MODEL RUNS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW REMAINING IDENTIFIABLE THROUGH THAT
TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/4. ALETTA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WEAK
STEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE OR ITS
REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 H...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A LARGER
DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 12.1N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 12.4N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 12.8N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 13.3N 114.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 13.5N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z 13.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z 12.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 171433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

...ALETTA MOVING SLOWLY AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 114.8W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN