2012 WPAC season

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Typhoon Hunter
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#61 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sun May 06, 2012 9:20 am

Yeah I agree Dexter, I'm not expecting anything until the latter stages of May given the MJO forecasts and extended model outlook. However if we hit mild El Nino conditions then our season will likely extend well into December. Given the Wpac is in a prolonged period of suppressed activity a near average season sounds like a smart forecast in terms of total numbers.

In the last 18 years only 2 season have had above average numbers of storms (26 is average) 1997 with 28 and 2004 with 29. I like the sound the 2009 too Dexter, after the last two utterly bizarre seasons a return to "normality" will be quite interesting!
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#62 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 06, 2012 9:57 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Yeah I agree Dexter, I'm not expecting anything until the latter stages of May given the MJO forecasts and extended model outlook. However if we hit mild El Nino conditions then our season will likely extend well into December. Given the Wpac is in a prolonged period of suppressed activity a near average season sounds like a smart forecast in terms of total numbers.

In the last 18 years only 2 season have had above average numbers of storms (26 is average) 1997 with 28 and 2004 with 29. I like the sound the 2009 too Dexter, after the last two utterly bizarre seasons a return to "normality" will be quite interesting!


Image

Image

another invest succumbs to unfavorable conditions. oh well, let's wait for the mjo to return and kickstart the wpac.
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#63 Postby dexterlabio » Sun May 06, 2012 10:07 pm

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Yeah I agree Dexter, I'm not expecting anything until the latter stages of May given the MJO forecasts and extended model outlook. However if we hit mild El Nino conditions then our season will likely extend well into December. Given the Wpac is in a prolonged period of suppressed activity a near average season sounds like a smart forecast in terms of total numbers.

In the last 18 years only 2 season have had above average numbers of storms (26 is average) 1997 with 28 and 2004 with 29. I like the sound the 2009 too Dexter, after the last two utterly bizarre seasons a return to "normality" will be quite interesting!



Agree. 2009 is quite an interesting season for me, but at the same time a dreadful one. But for the last 5 years, I must admit 2009 for me is the most interesting one. If the ENSO prediction for 2012 pans out, this would be similar to 2009...and maybe 2006 for a neutral-El Nino year.

The past 2 years were not the WPAC season I used to know...It would be nice to have a year with more interesting storms to track...but nicer if there will be no troubles caused. :lol:
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#64 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon May 07, 2012 5:59 am

Yeah 2009 and 2006 were both brutal years for the Philippines with multiple devastating landfalls! Really hope 2012 isn't the same in that respect!
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#65 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 09, 2012 6:29 am

It has been very quiet in this basin since Typhoon PAKHAR was around on early April. And it looks like it will continue that way for now,as the models dont have anything in their runs.
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#66 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed May 09, 2012 9:33 pm

Average number of Wpac storms by 10th May is two, so we're one behind at the moment. Once MJO gets on the move I expect that could help trigger tropical storm Sanvu.
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#67 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 16, 2012 6:09 am

everything is favorable for a tropical cyclone to develop but it seems like the wpac wants to wait for the mjo lol which won't come until the last week of may probrably.
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#68 Postby dexterlabio » Wed May 16, 2012 10:15 am

if you check GFS latest runs it hints some development over next week. not sure if that will verify. but i saw some models also starting to hint TC development or activity. personally i rely mostly on euro and sadly i am not good at analyzing theforecast charts...something like this:Image

i don't know if that's 2 closed low pressure system with TC characteristics or what. :lol: i still need to learn more about these kinds of stuff.
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#69 Postby dexterlabio » Wed May 16, 2012 10:21 am

other models (including GFS).

Image

though IMO it's hard to think of any TC formation with the suppressed phase of the MJO, and no uptick is expected according to the latest forecast within the next 2 weeks. may i be corrected if im wrong but i see the prolonged suppressed phase of MJO to the current delay of the transition to El Nino. SOI values are still rising , could mean any chance of El Nino developing within the soonest time is low.
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#70 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 16, 2012 8:34 pm

Image

convection slowly coming to the west pacific
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#71 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed May 16, 2012 8:42 pm

Dexter I think those ECMWF charts you post depict a reverse oriented monsoon trough. The average number of storms in May is only about 1 and given the MJO being so weak we may have to wait another 10 days or so before things get interesting.

However once the storms do get going they're going to be able to tap into an obscene amount of energy. Check out ocean heat content in mid May 2011 compared to what we have today!

Image

Image

I think we are going to have some monsters this season! :eek:
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#72 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 16, 2012 8:57 pm

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Dexter I think those ECMWF charts you post depict a reverse oriented monsoon trough. The average number of storms in May is only about 1 and given the MJO being so weak we may have to wait another 10 days or so before things get interesting.

However once the storms do get going they're going to be able to tap into an obscene amount of energy. Check out ocean heat content in mid May 2011 compared to what we have today!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 1135np.jpg

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2135np.jpg

I think we are going to have some monsters this season! :eek:


TH,to think those waters will warm much more as the Summer kicks in with that hot sun angle. And also,I can see you on chase mode a few times.
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#73 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed May 16, 2012 9:24 pm

Yeah Cycloneye, from July onward I'm always on chase standby since that's when most strong landfalling systems form. It's rare to chase storms before July, Songda in May last year was a fun exception to the norm!
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#74 Postby dexterlabio » Thu May 17, 2012 12:53 am

i think so TH, those could be a monsoon trough...or maybe a monsoon gyre (?)

that could also mean the moist southwest monsoon beginning to kick in during the last week of May, which may also help to jumpstart the typhoon season..and yes, that high OHC is very conducive for any storms coming in.... i just don't know about MJO, i know models can only show predictions within a "foreseeable" time frame and it's hard to expect anything...but if MJO strengthens in June, along with the said factors, we could see pretty interesting and intense TC's to chase.


all in all the wet and stormy season for PI is approaching.
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#75 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu May 17, 2012 4:04 am

This excellent map from Dr. Ryan Maue puts the current ocean heat content levels into perspective!

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#76 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 18, 2012 9:18 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Dexter I think those ECMWF charts you post depict a reverse oriented monsoon trough. The average number of storms in May is only about 1 and given the MJO being so weak we may have to wait another 10 days or so before things get interesting.

However once the storms do get going they're going to be able to tap into an obscene amount of energy. Check out ocean heat content in mid May 2011 compared to what we have today!



I think we are going to have some monsters this season! :eek:




Image

it's amazing that both (26.C and Heat Potential) are really concentrated in such a large area of the western pacific. the most abundant in the world.
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#77 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 18, 2012 6:25 pm

For those who may not made a visit to our forum for invests,there are two new invests 93W and 94W. Maybe the WPAC begins to wake up?

viewforum.php?f=59
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#78 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sun May 20, 2012 5:16 am

ECMWF spawning first tropical storm since Pakhar in the extended time frame of the run, been there for last two runs now. Worth watching to see if a trend emerges! Formation occurs off the NE coast of Luzon.
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#79 Postby dexterlabio » Sun May 20, 2012 5:45 am

so euro (which i admit is the only one i rely among other models) has been showing a possible TC developing by the end of May, and their latest run confirms to me at least that they are hinting a real TC on the 30th. Let's see if this pans out...but we all know how euro works, and hey, euro did a nice job in the Atlantic when it forecast Alberto to form this week.

Image

Image

That seems to be a harmless recurving system.
Last edited by dexterlabio on Sun May 20, 2012 5:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2012 WPAC season

#80 Postby dexterlabio » Sun May 20, 2012 5:48 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:ECMWF spawning first tropical storm since Pakhar in the extended time frame of the run, been there for last two runs now. Worth watching to see if a trend emerges! Formation occurs off the NE coast of Luzon.


haha i was just about to post about it. :lol: I was seeing just some low pressure system in the previous runs but the recent 2 runs hints it to be a tropical system.
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