LLC Developing just East of Belize?? (Is invest 94L)

[drezee]

Visible Sat of the Suspected Area

I am not one to jump to conclusions...
The low level clouds look right...
Shear is very high in the area...
Looks about 16N 87W

[cycloneye]

Belize radar.There is plenty of rain around however, so far no circulation is seen but as we know, the tropics change constantly.

Belize Radar

[drezee]

Surface Obs are showing a broad circulation

Surface Observations

[cycloneye]

Surface Obs are showing a broad circulation

Surface Observations

Hi my friend. I made a hyperlink to that link as it was very long.

[northjaxpro]

Currently, there is a small area of convection that has flared up on the tail-end of a surface trough down in the Gulf of Honduras. No indication of a surface low level circulation at this time.

[NDG]

There appears to be a broad circulation, but no LLC.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a trough is festering over the Western Caribbean.

We have seen this setup in years past this time of year and we have seen some early season development out of it.

If it continues to linger, I could see something trying to organize, but something sheared at best.

[Aric Dunn]

Very broad but convection is on the increase and definitely a weak mid level circ developing this is the area the models have been hinting at

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see any evidence of a closed circulation, a trough yes!

[Aric Dunn]

I don't see any evidence of a closed circulation, a trough yes!

Yeah nothing but mostly trade winds right now

[northjaxpro]

Edit: HPC surface analysis updated at 00Z this evening now intitalizes a 1010 mb Low east of Belize in the Gulf of Honduras.

[StarmanHDB]

I've been watching the sat images the whole day (yes, my job is THAT interesting) and have at times been seeing some convergence, some slight convection, some type of circulation, and a sketchy blob which currently seems "blah". Who knows?

[Nimbus]

This is the tail end of the front scenario the models have been hinting at.
Shear is high so if they make it an invest the description will probably state "organization if any is likely to be be slow"

[NDG]

Apparently it does look like a weak surface circulation did form east of Belize but its mid level circulaiton got ripped off of it due to the westerly shear.

Click here, speed up the loop

[drezee]

Apparently it does look like a weak surface circulation did form east of Belize but its mid level circulaiton got ripped off of it due to the westerly shear.

Click here, speed up the loop

It looks pretty clear on the NASA visible...

[northjaxpro]

Actually, if you look just above on the HPC surface analysis map which was just updated at 00Z, they now initialize a 1010 mb Low in the Gulf of Honduras just east of Belize.

Yes, the last visible images NDG posted showed the exposed low level swirl. Westerly shear at the current time is a bit strong, but we will have to see if conditions become somewhat favorable for some further development over the next couple of days.

[cycloneye]

Low pressure in the area is introduced at 00z Surface Analysis.

[drezee]

Belize radar.There is plenty of rain around however, so far no circulation is seen but as we know, the tropics change constantly.

Belize Radar

You can see the Low on radar now.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a weak circ down there. Let's of shear ATM but should relax a little.

[tolakram]

Not a lot to see this morning.



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