EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

No change.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 835 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

SHIP up to 84kts on 12z update.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, stuck at 30%

[RL3AO]

Convection looks pretty good this morning.

[cycloneye]

This is an excerpt from the 8 AM PDT TD Aletta discussion that eludes to this large disturbance.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE OR ITS
REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 H...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A LARGER
DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM.

[Hurricane Jed]

So then it would likely that 92E would likely absorb Aletta's remnants?

[cycloneye]

So then it would likely that 92E would likely absorb Aletta's remnants?

It appears that way.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Lol, 92E is stuck at 30%. It's having a hard time consolidating which is expected given its large size. Many of the models have it becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 3-5 days.

[cycloneye]

The 18z Surface Analysis now has the low stationary. That is why it will suck into it's circulation,what may be left of Aletta.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE DAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[MGC]

Looking at the visable loop....sure does look like there is a surface circulation. I can see Cu clouds moving west to east....Convection is not very consolidated near the center though.....MGC

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 92, 2012051800, , BEST, 0, 122N, 997W, 25, 1008, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Pressure down a millibar.

[Kingarabian]

Looking really good tonight.

[Extratropical94]

Nothing new as of 2:

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS
INCREASING AND GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Look how consolidated 92E became last night. Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see a 50% or perhaps 60% chance of formation issued at the next Tropical Weather Outlook.

I'm not good at guessing percentages on the TWOs though, so it could very well remain at 40%.

[cycloneye]

A hint before the 5 AM PDT TWO. This is the 10:05 UTC Special Feature discussion.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND CENTERED NEAR 12N100W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THIS LOW LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT STEMS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N93W. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SLOW
MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Look how consolidated 92E became last night. Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see a 50% or perhaps 60% chance of formation issued at the next Tropical Weather Outlook.

I'm not good at guessing percentages on the TWOs though, so it could very well remain at 40%.

Not a 50% or 60% yet IMO.