EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Looked much better last night.

[MGC]

Did look better yesterday....shear looks like it kicked up.....MGC

[tolakram]

Not sure where LLC is, the visible loop might show a week LLC drifting below the main ball of convection.

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Zoomed in: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS IT DRIFTS ERRATICALLY...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Despite the downgrade to 20%, GFS is still developing this into a Hurricane. Let's see if this disturbance starts to organize or maybe the one behind dominates.



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[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

ATCF relocates the low more to the south in latitude as it was around 12.5n on the last update,but they fixed the whole set of Best Track data for this invest. SHIP makes it a 74kt Hurricane in 120 hours.

92, 2012051818, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1006W, 25, 1008, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest




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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This recent weakening is just a minor obstacle in 92E's path to hurricane status in a few days.

[Kingarabian]

So is it shear affecting it or whatever outflow aletta has is bothering it.

[cycloneye]

It looks like is trying to organize after being affected by strong shear.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I expect Code Orange at 8PM. They will probably go 30%.

[brunota2003]

There is very much a surface circulation there...and the center of it is being pulled toward the convection (it is to the SW of the convection), and looks like it is starting to become better defined.

[cycloneye]

Interesting evening discussion.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND CENTERED NEAR 13N101W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE SYSTEM
CENTER BUT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LEVEL
CLOUD LINES AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MAY EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THERE IS A LOW 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
EAST OF 100W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ANALYZED NW OF T.D. ALETTA.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 29N E OF 123W...WITH
SEAS ABOUT 8 FT IN N-NW SWELL GENERATED N OF THE AREA ALONG THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1420 UTC SHOWED 20-30 KT S
TO SW WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...BUT SHIP OBS DID NOT INDICATE
WINDS MORE THAN 15 KT. IT APPEARS THE SCAT PASS WAS CONTAMINATED
BY WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA AT THE TIME. THEREFORE
DO NOT EXPECT SIMILAR STRONG WINDS TO SHOW UP ON NEXT SCAT PASS.

EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 115W TO CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 100W GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED SUN AND MON AS ENHANCED N-NE FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO
THE SYSTEM. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL W OF
120W WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA BY SUN.

$$
MUNDELL

[Yellow Evan]

Should be back to 30% soon.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 635 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
AS IT DRIFTS ERRATICALLY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Why does the NHC love to do this?

[cycloneye]

Why does the NHC love to do this?

Is not NHC but the enviromental conditions that are not as favorable at this time.

[Yellow Evan]

Why does the NHC love to do this?

Is not NHC but the enviromental conditions that are not as favorable at this time.

Then, why couldn't the NHC say so in the TWO?

[cycloneye]

Why does the NHC love to do this?

Is not NHC but the enviromental conditions that are not as favorable at this time.

Then, why couldn't the NHC say so in the TWO?

When they say "Development is expected to be slow" it means the conditions are not ideal and it will be a slow proccess for it to organize.

[brunota2003]

Convection is increasing right next to or over the center of the circulation. There was none there throughout the day, and now there are several storms in that area that just developed within the last couple hours.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

The only change from prior updates is the pressure drop of two millibars.

EP, 92, 2012051900, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1003W, 25, 1006 DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest