Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

[url]GREEN ALERT IN EL SALVADOR BECAUSE OF THE RAINS[/url]

Yesterday was the rainiest day on El Salvador since October 18 2011 when we were under the heavy rains from TD 12E. Unfortunately yesterday we had the first victim of the rainy season when a person was killed by a lightning. The heavy rains will continue today and on the weekend so the government declared green alert. This is the rainfall registered yesterday in some stations:

Suchitoto 67 mm/2.64 inches
San Salvador 73 mm/2.87 inches
Acajutla 75 mm/2.95 inches
Zacatecoluca 102 mm/4.02 inches
Santa Tecla 123.6 mm/4.87 inches Highest rainfall registered yesterday

In Santa Tecla the average rainfall for May is 160 mm/6.30 inches, that means that 77% of the average monthly amount fell in just one night. This map shows the distribution of yesterday rainfall:

http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/6730 ... lluvia.jpg

Sad news ! Be aware Macrocane, and be safe and dry.

[cycloneye]

We also got heavy rains in the afternoon and evening.But all is quiet as the night progress and Saturday afternoon will have another round of rain in interior and Northern part of PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
949 PM AST FRI MAY 18 2012

.UPDATE...HAD AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTED AREAS
FROM SAN JUAN THROUGH GUAYNABO AND BAYAMON. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
FLOODING...INCLUDING THE RIO PIEDRAS AND SEVERAL SECTIONS OF
GUAYNABO. EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A
QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH TO ALTER THE WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND
WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF
SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another round of showers is expected today for PR. But a drying trend will occur early next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD AND ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SPREAD FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LEEWARDS THROUGH LATER TODAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND THEREBY INDUCE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ON SHORE AND AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES
ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF AND SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH MID MORNING.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE CROSS VENTILATION AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS.

OVERALL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF VCSH AND MVFR EXCEPTIONS
DURING THE PERIOD. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 19/17Z AND
19/22Z. LLVL WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE GENERALLY E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A CHOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 87 77 / 50 40 30 20
STT 87 78 88 79 / 40 30 30 40

[msbee]

Good Morning
Hope everyone stays relatively dry today.
The sun is shining here now but we awoke to a heavy rainstorm this morning.
The pool is overflowing again and the ground is supersaturated. My rain gauge showed about 1.75 inches of rain in a little over an hour.

Have a good day
Barbara

[cycloneye]

Hi Barbara. The Villas cam is not working at this time because of renovations to the place. But I have the other ones that you posted at the first post.

[msbee]

hi Luis
yes, I know that one is not working. the other one of the harbor works sometimes.
this one:
http://www.st-maarten-island-guide.com/ ... arborview/
I gave you that one didn't I?

and the other one at Sunset Beach Grill with the planes is also not working. They say they will soon have it back up and running.
I hope so

[cycloneye]

hi Luis
yes, I know that one is not working. the other one of the harbor works sometimes.
this one:
http://www.st-maarten-island-guide.com/ ... arborview/
I gave you that one didn't I?

and the other one at Sunset Beach Grill with the planes is also not working. They say they will soon have it back up and running.
I hope so

Yes,I have that one.

[msbee]

and so it starts? first named storm maybe?

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6980

[cycloneye]

Yes Barbara,it looks like Alberto is on it's way.

Meanwhile,a drying trend will be with us by early next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC-TPW WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST DRYING TREND AFTER
ANOTHER MINI SURGE COMING TONIGHT/SUNDAY FROM NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES.
MODELS ALSO SHOW DRYING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS SHOWS 1.5 INCHES OF PW
OVER PR/USVI FOR MON/TUE AND LESS THEREAFTER. GFS TYPICALLY OVERPLAYS
THE DRYING SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF RATHER RESPECTABLE FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST INTERIOR DURING AFTERNOON WHEN MID-DAY HEATING HAS MORE THAN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDER.
GFS MOS INDICATES LEAST RAINY DAY TO BE TUE AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 19/22Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND POSSIBLY
TJSJ. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND MAINTAIN CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THOSE CURRENTLY SEEN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE 1035 MB AT 30N/40W TO 35N/40W TO WEAKEN TOWARDS END OF
WEEK BUT LOCATION WILL NOT CHANGE A LOT...MAINTAINING EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 40 30 20 30
STT 77 87 78 89 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The dry weather will be with us in PR from Monday and continue for most of the week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS...WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREBY INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATED AN INCREASE ON CLOUD AND
SHOWERS COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE AREAS THROUGH MID
MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY AS
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND A STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE THIS MORNING... MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GENERALLY DRY TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE EACH DAY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS TO INDUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 19/22Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJBQ. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 12 KTS OF LESS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY LATER
THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL LOCAL WATERS...THEREFORE MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AT THIS MOMENT SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUED
TO SHOW PASSING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
SHOWERS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS AND LOW VISIBILITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 89 78 / 30 20 30 30
STT 87 78 89 78 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST SUN MAY 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TYPICAL SUMMER TRADE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS
AT NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWED ABOVE-NORMAL
MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS PUERTO RICO EARLY TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR
DATA INDICATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN RATES RANGED BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SMALL ISLANDS AND EL YUNQUE...STREAMERS FORMED AND HELPED TO
GENERATE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PR AND PARTS OF CAROLINA
AND SAN JUAN. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS AND GPS MET
DATA CONFIRMED THAT DRIER AIR MASS IS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE USVI
AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE PR...JUST ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION...
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
A SUBSIDENT/DRY PATTERN THAT WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL INCREASE THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
RESULTING IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NIGHT TIME/EARLY MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHALLOW
TO MODERATE AND MAINLY LOCALIZED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT LOCAL TAF SITES DURG THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECT AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF PR AND
MAINLY WEST SECTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO EXPERIENCE BRIEF PRDS
OF MVFR IN PASSING L/LVL CLDS WITH SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TIL 20/22Z. IN
ADDITION...SMALL LINES OF SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BTW ERN PR AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL HOWEVER BE
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE AND NOT WIDESPREAD. L/LVL WINDS ARE FCST TO BE FM
ESE AT 10 TO 15 KTS BLO 20K FT...THEN BCMG NORTHERLY AND INCR W/HT
ABV.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL LOCAL WATERS...THEREFORE MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS OF UP TO 21 KNOTS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 86 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 85 79 86 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Hi Macrocane. TD TWO-E has formed well SW of El Salvador and the forecast is to make landfall on the Mexican Coast as a Hurricane. The good news for you over there is that this one wont go there,but the EPAC season is only starting and for sure many more will form and some may threat your country or get close. But we hope that nothing bad occurs if landfall occurs in the Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The first Tropical Wave that will affect the Eastern Caribbean will be by next weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MON MAY 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON
SHORE AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WERE REPORTED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN
SEBASTIAN AND JUANA DIAZ. THESE SHOWERS ALSO AFFECTED THE ISLAND
OF VIEQUES WERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL.

THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE SAME AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE. TYPICAL SUMMER TRADE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 40 W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITONS TO PREVAIL. 21/10-21/12 MVFR SHRA TJPS. 21/16Z-21/22Z
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON TSRA TJBQ...AND VCNTY TSRA TJMZ AND TJSJ
WITH BRIEF PRDS OF MVFR IN PASSING L/LVL CLDS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS...THEREFORE MARINERS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 21 KNOTS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 87 78 / 30 30 30 20
STT 85 79 86 78 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. It looks like next week will have another increased shower activity for the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST MON MAY 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER NORTHWARDS INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A BROAD
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS
MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION INDUCED
BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS AND BRING SHALLOW
PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND LATEST MIMIC/TPW SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT SUGGEST A CONTINUED DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH DOMINANT EASTERLY TRADES WILL BRING SMALL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE PREVAILING STEERING FLOW TO
QUICKLY PUSH MUCH OF THE LOCALIZED CONVECTION QUICKLY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS LEAVING NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ANY HEAVY DOWN BURST OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM THE EAST. ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE STREAMERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. ALL MODELS
SUGGEST THIS GRADUAL DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
SOME AREAS ACROSS PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.
BY THEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY ERODE WITH THE APPROACH OF A AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A LOOSENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS ALLOW FOR BETTER LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 21/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 78 86 / 30 30 10 20
STT 79 86 78 86 / 30 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends, just hearing our local radio looks like that a plane crashed in Dominica this afternoon. This news is not offcial but there's high confidence that this crash could be confirmed. I i have more i will keep your informed. Thus, fatalities have been reported ( non officially).

[Macrocane]

Yep, good news is it's not coming here, hopefully nothing bad will happen in Mexico either. The rains have continued in El Salvador but thankfully no more emergencies have been reported. In Honduras the news are not that good, the rains of the weekend damaged 106 homes in the country but no fatalities were reported.

Gusty we'll be waiting for the info :S

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America on May 20 2012.

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.1°C (50.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.4°C (56.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.0°C (44.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.5°C (76.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.6°C (61.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.6°C (85.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.9°C (66.0°F) Coolest since April 16 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.8°C (92.8°F) The day before it registered 30.4°C (86.7°F) The coolest since October 31 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F) The day before it registered 29°C (84°F) The coolest since October 19 2011
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.1°C (53.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F) Coolest since April 10 2012

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some showers will develop this afternoon,but more dry weather is expected at least thru Saturday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PERTURBATION NOW
LOCATED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AND
AFFECT THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLAND AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH MID MORNING.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK PERTURBATION NOW LOCATED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A
STREAMER WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RIO. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE COULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAILED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ AND
TISX THROUGH 22/14Z...AND BETWEEN 22/16-2221 TJBQ...WITH
TSTM POSSIBLE VCNTY.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
GENERATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...THEREFORE
MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISED CAUTION ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 89 78 / 30 10 20 0
STT 79 79 79 79 / 30 30 30 10

[msbee]

It looks like the plane crash Gusty was taking about was not a plane crash at all, thankfully.
it was just a water spout

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/home ... ane-crash/

[cycloneye]

It looks like the plane crash Gusty was taking about was not a plane crash at all, thankfully.
it was just a water spout

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/home ... ane-crash/

Oh, that is good news.