ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Welcome to hurricane season folks!!! Is this the quickest we have gone from invest to named storm?

Zeta's genesis was well before it was even declared an Invest, but at that time of year I think they were too stunned to do anything.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Was at Savannah NWR today... winds were N with occasional higher gusts but nice and sunny!

[stormhunter7]

sure does look like a little storm http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=Carolinas&numimages=48

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This will be an interesting advisory package.

[stormhunter7]

TWC hasn't pulled the trigger as of just a min. ago. The subtropical jet should impact this storm more tmrw.. i say the actual forecast cone is going to be interesting to see!

[cycloneye]

TWC hasn't pulled the trigger as of just a min. ago. The subtropical jet should impact this storm more tmrw.. i say the actual forecast cone is going to be interesting to see!

They have to wait for NHC as they are a private firm.

[RL3AO]

Model forecast sounding for over the storm.



Even if the middle atmosphere warms a bit, it still looks like the surface (water) is plenty warm enough to keep an unstable atmosphere.

[stormhunter7]

Yeah. they just teased the Dr. Knabb will do a special tmrw morning at 7am on TWC about the system off SC. He's only got a few more days with them! lol

[cycloneye]

FYI= Anyone who may have the first advisory on hand,post it as a new thread for advisories and not post them here.Thanks for your cooperation.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I wouldn't be surprised if the system becomes better organized over the next several hours, and even possibly strengthens. The feeder band on the NE side of the system is getting longer and precip echoes are starting to appear in the otherwise empty SE side (radar beam is looking at 15,000 feet, roughly, there).

[OuterBanker]

Boy have I been busy today and haven't had a chance to look at this till now. This am this looked very interesting. It is in the one spot that has a chance as a warm core. It appears the 18z GFS has this consolidating with the low of the Va. capes to one low center off Hatteras. Then it meanders for awhile, goes inland in NC, reappears near coast again in around 90 hrs. Of course that was before the init of Alberto. If anything it looks like we will have something to talk about for a few days, because it is going nowhere fast. Personally, as a warm core I don't think it has much of a chance. It will self destruct once it hits the cooler waters that surround it. But, it could turn into a nasty hybrid causing beach erosion and minor tidal flooding here on the OBX. A little irony here though. Couple days ago the prediction was for a low the slowly crawl up the coast with a little wind and rain. Because this system spun up a little like a warm core it caused our weather to clear up. It has been sunny and beautiful since this am with only a few high cirrus.

BTW, glad this isn't late July instead of May. It would be a real concern then.

[senorpepr]

MSI imagery of 93L off the coast of SC:

[stormhunter7]

Its Official

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
2100 UTC SAT MAY 19 2012

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[FutureEM]

Its Official

This just made my day super interesting.

[cycloneye]

Who wants to make the advisory thread?

[stormhunter7]

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
2100 UTC SAT MAY 19 2012

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 77.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.9N 78.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.9N 78.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 77.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[tomboudreau]

Tropical Storm Watches for the NYC area? Is that what I am seeing on the map from NHC?

[RL3AO]

Tropical Storm Watches for the NYC area? Is that what I am seeing on the map from NHC?

Its an error.

[stormhunter7]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.