ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[thetruesms]

Well, dang. I kind of figured we'd have it today based on how quickly it was shedding its old frontal structure, but I thought I'd be able to get back from lunch and running errands first

[txwatcher91]

on a side note. the Euro takes it south of thirty north pretty darn close the NE florida in 36 to 48 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Probably wouldn't use the Euro at this time range for forecasting the track, would stick with the NAM, RAP, and GFS/WRF blend for it. Most likely scenario seems to be drifting west and then turning north similar to NHC track. Who knows thought with all of the complex features.

[Dean4Storms]

Think we had a TD since this morning. Anyway, sitting where it is over 26C + SST's where upwelling isn't as much a concern if the shear lets up a bit I think Alberto could go through a rapid but short deepening.


Not an official forecast! Get all your forecasts from official means!

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm... new ship report.... I hope thats a bad report.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This forecast is just merely my best interpretation of the 20% line on the wind speed probability images provided by the NHC...I'm trying it out this year compared to the current "cone" the NHC provides. How often it'll be posted this season will be hit or miss, obviously I sleep at night and being in the armed forces, have a busy work schedule. The map used is one of the Skeetobite Storm2K mark up maps! Again, this was done using the 20% chance lines found on the wind speed probability maps.

[RL3AO]

hmmm... new ship report.... I hope thats a bad report.

SHIP S 2000 32.20 -78.00 52 284 350 65.1 - 9.8 3.0 - - 29.53 -0.37 73.4 78.8 - 0 8 - 19.7 8.0 350 - - VRB

Yeah. Look at the pressure tendency. -0.37

Nice quality control.

[thetruesms]

Think we had a TD since this morning. Anyway, sitting where it is over 26C + SST's where upwelling isn't as much a concern if the shear lets up a bit I think Alberto could go through a rapid but short deepening.


Not an official forecast! Get all your forecasts from official means!

I don't know if I'd buy a TD argument this morning. Call me overconservative, but it seemed to be clinging to enough extratropical characteristics to want to hold off this morning. Although I suppose some things did point to what could create compelling argument as an STS. Regardless, it didn't take very long at all to become an obvious tropical cyclone to everyone. I snagged a peek at a satellite shot on my phone while I was out and knew we'd have a TS at 21Z

[thetruesms]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This forecast is just merely my best interpretation of the 20% line on the wind speed probability images provided by the NHC...I'm trying it out this year compared to the current "cone" the NHC provides. How often it'll be posted this season will be hit or miss, obviously I sleep at night and being in the armed forces, have a busy work schedule. The map used is one of the Skeetobite Storm2K mark up maps! Again, this was done using the 20% chance lines found on the wind speed probability maps.

[img]http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/9568/tropicalstormalberto1.jpg[img]

I think I really like this way of handling it

edit - I suppose it may not work as well when the wind field and rain swaths become dislocated, but I don't think there'll ever be a way to truly convey the issues involved in a tropical cyclone in a single image. I do know that I like this more than focusing simply on the center.

[CrazyC83]

That would support a pressure of 1000mb if that is the center.

[Dean4Storms]

Several GFS Ensemble Members are also bringing Alberto into Northeast Florida.........
I wouldn't totally rule this out with the current set up!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This forecast is just merely my best interpretation of the 20% line on the wind speed probability images provided by the NHC...I'm trying it out this year compared to the current "cone" the NHC provides. How often it'll be posted this season will be hit or miss, obviously I sleep at night and being in the armed forces, have a busy work schedule. The map used is one of the Skeetobite Storm2K mark up maps! Again, this was done using the 20% chance lines found on the wind speed probability maps.

[img]http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/9568/tropicalstormalberto1.jpg[img]

I think I really like this way of handling it

edit - I suppose it may not work as well when the wind field and rain swaths become dislocated, but I don't think there'll ever be a way to truly convey the issues involved in a tropical cyclone in a single image. I do know that I like this more than focusing simply on the center.

I designed it to focus more on wind speeds. Rainfall can be better handled through the NWS and local statements, as flooding really does vary from area to area. It seems most people are fond of the "cone" and don't want to see it go, so it was a good way to convey the probabilities of wind speeds, while maintaining the cone everyone seems to so dearly loves (or loathes when it is over them!). The only issues would be when the system is a tropical depression, if there are no chances for intensification and such. It's a work in progress!

[NDG]

I wouldn't doubt if Alberto meanders around for days if it does not dissipates, there is not much of a steering pattern getting going over the next few days.

[capepoint]

Yawn.......Ok I'm awake. Sheesh, another one already??

Greetings from Coastal North Carolina, Cape Lookout to be exact. Yes, weather is nice here today but a bit blustery (20-25mph). Will be online watching and giving you some near-the-scene reports over the next few days if anyone wants one.
One point to make, we have had a couple of lows pass through over the past week, already had a few inches of rain in the east, so hope this is fairly dry and only minimal TS winds.
Thanks, S2K folks, for giving your insight on these things.

[Aric Dunn]

The center appears to well south of the mid level center on radar.

[HurricaneBelle]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
650 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...SHIP INDICATES ALBERTO IS STRONGER...

REPORTS FROM A SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE PRESSURE DATA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
60 MPH...95 KM/H. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

[Jevo]

I was hoping not to see you folks for a few more weeks.. Welcome to HS2012..

Albie is looking a sad right now, but all in all it warrants a



Mannn I dont even have my Publix hurricane tracking map yet

[Aric Dunn]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
650 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...SHIP INDICATES ALBERTO IS STRONGER...

REPORTS FROM A SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE PRESSURE DATA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
60 MPH...95 KM/H. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

hmmm well I guess that ship report that I posted earlier was accurate enough for them. also shows that center is well removed from the center based on where that ship report was and the deepest convection.

[FutureEM]

Wow, I feel bad for the ship out in this situation.

[yzerfan]

Glad we're seeing Alberto this weekend rather than next weekend when the Outer Banks are going to be slammed with people for the holiday and the 'I paid good money to swim in the ocean' mentality is kicking in.

[brunota2003]

Hm...it doesn't look like a 60 mph TS...they usually look a lot more organized, especially on radar IMO...and buoys in the area don't show that there is a 60 mph TS lurking just nearby. I thought maybe the ship ran into a downburst or something...to each his own, though, I suppose.