EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[ronjon]

Pretty good model consensus forming on track of 94L. Generally heads NE skirting SE FL and heads into the Atlantic - stalls - then retrogrades back to the W or W-SW. All the models, CMC, EC, UKMET, HWRF, & GFS show this general scenario. Of course, they all vary on how far north 94L gets before retrograding west. Most models keep the system pretty weak too.

[cycloneye]

I think plenty of analysis has to be made to see what factors contributed to the not more stronger Bud than forecast with the enviromental conditions favorable.



TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

THE CENTER OF BUD HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT. A FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T2.5 AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SURPRISING THAT BUD HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR
APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
OVERALL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
CERTAINLY LESS AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING BUD AND NOW THE ONLY
MODEL THAT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE GFDL. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN 2-3 DAYS...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS...AND DRIER AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. IT APPEARS THAT BUD IS
BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE LATER TODAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS
BUD MOVES NORTHEASTWARD IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A
SHALLOW SYSTEM. AFTER THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OFFSHORE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF BUD THAT INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.3N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.9N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 18.5N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 18.5N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[NDG]

Might have to wait until it gets out of the Caribbean, out of the shear streak, north of the Bahamas before it can do anything. Last night's Euro might have the right idea.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Good morning all.

I believe Bud is now about to undergo a period of rapid intensification. Its satellite presentation has become much more defined over the past few hours with more banding features and very deep convection in a ring around the center. It appears an eye is popping out. A microwave pass from earlier reveals a fully-constructed eyewall.

[RL3AO]

^^^

Impressive.

[RL3AO]

NHC must have got that image too.

EP, 02, 2012052312, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1074W, 55, 997, TS

[Yellow Evan]

Woah, Bug looks great now, Won't be surprised to see a hurricane soon (not at next adv though). Now that this storm is less likely to hit Mexico, Go Bud!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am anticipating Bud to become a hurricane by 21z, and peak at around 80 kt before weakening.

[brunota2003]

I don't think it was 35 knots earlier...Probaly closer to 45 knots.

[GCANE]

Nice development on microwave

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think it was 35 knots earlier...Probaly closer to 45 knots.

I'd go with 40 knts at 9z if I was the BT guy.

[Extratropical94]

EP, 02, 2012052306, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1065W, 45, 1001, TS
Well, they increased the 06Z intensity to 45 knots.

[Yellow Evan]

Good, NHC doing some decent RBT surgery. This is likely due to a center fix IMO. It is probably closer to the convection than originally thought.

[Chacor]

Best track 06z: 12.9N 106.5W
09z fcst/adv: AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.4W

So they've readjusted the centre to the south-southeast.

[Yellow Evan]

Best track 06z: 12.9N 106.5W
09z fcst/adv: AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.4W

So they've readjusted the centre to the south-southeast.

Looks like I was right. Either way, the NHC is having major issues finding a center.

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 231445
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

RECENT 0843 UTC AMSU-B AND 1055 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW
THAT BUD HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ENCIRCLED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION...SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY
STRENGTHENING. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE ASSUMING A CENTER TOO FAR TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF AMSU ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 55 KT AS A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.

BUD IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...OR 310/8 KT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
DUE TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THAT FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BUD TO STALL OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST BY 72 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL ENDS UP A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR BUD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT.
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS NOW STRENGTHENING...THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST REQUIRES AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AND AGAIN BRINGS BUD TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH. AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE CYCLONE PEAKING NEAR
70-75 KT IN 24-36 HOURS...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY 2 DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE INGESTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
WEST INTO THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE NHC FORECAST ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE
LGEM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT LOCATIONS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS NOT DECREASED...AND INTERESTS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.4N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.0N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.7N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.8N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231445
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

...BUD FINALLY STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 107.6W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND BUD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 231445
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
1500 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.0N 108.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 108.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 107.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[gotoman38]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 23 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-005

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM BUD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 24/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0102E BUD
C. 24/1415Z
D. 15.4N 107.7W
E. 24/1930Z TO 24/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO HURRICANE
BUD NEAR 17.0N 106.7W FOR 25/1800Z.
JWP

[Aric Dunn]

Something seems to be wrong with the gfs data. checked a few sites and it did not start running till a little after 12 and its stuck at 3 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps is very similar to 00z euro

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Bud O_o?