ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

Two small hot towers fired nearly 2 hrs ago pretty close to the LLC

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... Caribbean&

[adam0983]

Invest 94L is getting better organizied this morning. This is very rare to see this much activity in the Atlantic so early in the season.

[northjaxpro]

Does anyone think that Invest 94L can develop into a tropical depression?

This is going to take quite a bit of time for 94L to begin the consolidate. Shear of 30-40 knots is expected to continue in the short term. I can not imagine 94L organizing down in the Caribbean. Looking at the water vapor imagery, the rather strong upper shortwave moving across SC this morning should pull the disturbance northeast over Cuba and into the Bahamas during the next 48 hours. Lots of dry air all over the GOM and is even penetrating down into the extreme NW Caribbean as well, another factor hindering development of 94L at least for the next 48 hours or so.

The time frame to watch is this weekend as the computer models are hinting that the strong shear axis should move farther north which will significantly improve conditions for possible development of this system somewhere off the Southeast U.S. coast. The big question is will there be much of anything left of 94L after fighting through all this shear by Saturday? Well, the models are still hinting at sufficient energy and moisture just off the coast of Florida and through the Bahamas looking out through 72 hours. A strong upper level High Pressure ridge is forecast to build in across the Western Atlantic to the Eastern U.S seaboard. Should this scenario unfold, whatever attempts to develop from this invest 94L would be forced to turn back to the west or even west-southwest depending on the strength and positioning of the ridge.

The later GFS and Euro model runs will be very interesting to say the least. Definitely we need to keep paying close watch to 94L from now right on through the Memorial Day Weekend and possibly beyond for everyone from the Greater Antilles, Florida and possibly later for those living along the U.S. Gulf coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't think we see much in the way of development until this gets out east of Florida late this week and into the weekend and even then it might struggle to deepen with borderline SST's.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah it had its little chance to get more organized. it will have to wait till it gets east of florida.

[GCANE]

Looks like the hot tower fired for about 1.5 hrs.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... ARROW=prev

Let's see how it effects UL winds in the next 6 hrs or so.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like another vort is developing right near key west. that makes 4 vorts in this thing.

[SouthFLTropics]

So we have multiple vorts in this thing...Seems like last season all over again where it took a while for anything to get going...

Wake me up when we have a consolidated center and a burst of convection. It's still early!!!

SFT

[cycloneye]

From 2:05 PM EDT discussion:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND A
1009 MB LOW NEAR 20N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE
LOW CENTER FROM E OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W ACROSS CUBA AT 23N81W TO
THE LOW CENTER AT 20N84W AND CONTINUING TOWARDS THE S AND INTO
HONDURAS AT 15N87W. THIS AREA ALSO LIES UNDERNEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND INTO THE W ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 78W-82W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N
OR NE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

[vbhoutex]

Not sure I see the 4th vort Aric. Seems to be a little more consolidated near the Isle of Youth. Wondering if we will see a shift East to the convection. Shear is definitely is in control for now though.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure I see the 4th vort Aric. Seems to be a little more consolidated near the Isle of Youth. Wondering if we will see a shift East to the convection. Shear is definitely is in control for now though.

The old one from yesterday is still spinning down near honduras the other one north of there is weakening and then there is the stronger one that developed over night ( now over the isle of youth ) then a weak one maybe starting near the keys. does not really matter though. not much will happen till it all moves east of Florida

[Brent]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Aric Dunn]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

yep. none of the models really do anything till after 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

Brent,here is the complete STWO.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Aric Dunn]

well as that vort near the isle of youth seems to be taking over. it has now killed the other vort to its south and is less elongated. maybe the euro is onto something. it has a more well defined surface feature in 24hrs.

[Ivanhater]

well as that vort near the isle of youth seems to be taking over. it has now killed the other vort to its south and is less elongated. maybe the euro is onto something. it has a more well defined surface feature in 24hrs.

Yeah, looks like the newest model runs are spinning this up around the Keys and off SE Florida...that is the area to look. Also, we are only talking 48 hours out as well, should see this happening pretty soon.

[Aric Dunn]

well as that vort near the isle of youth seems to be taking over. it has now killed the other vort to its south and is less elongated. maybe the euro is onto something. it has a more well defined surface feature in 24hrs.

Yeah, looks like the newest model runs are spinning this up around the Keys and off SE Florida...that is the area to look. Also, we are only talking 48 hours out as well, should see this happening pretty soon.

yeah if this present circ does take over and maintains than it will likely have a better chance as it begins to move NE and assuming the shear does relax after 48 hours.

[northjaxpro]

Jax NWS office mets just issued their area forecast discussion and provided a very good analysis of the situation regarding the possible development off the Florida East Coast late this weekend. Here are some excerpts as the full discussion itself is just too long to post:


WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE FROM SOUTH FL INTO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND WILL BACK STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL TRIGGER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THAT WILL SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...

SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOW LEVEL NE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS WITH SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY PROBABLY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...(5/27-5/30)

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTUAL LOW TRACK FROM NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CURRENT HPC SURFACE PROGS
WHICH TAKE THE LOW BACK TOWARD THE COAST IN NORTH FLORIDA WHICH IN
EFFECT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WITH
POSSIBLE WINDY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES. HAVE UPDATED HAZ WX OUTLOOK AND ADDED WEB BRIEFING TO NWS
JAX WEBSITE HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AND THE ACCOMPANYING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR LATE SUN/MON THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE/WED
AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has Alberto part II. I sure hope it's wrong, as I have a 4-day holiday weekend (PRE HURRICANE SEASON) planned. You hear that 94L? Something to keep an eye on, certainly.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro has Alberto part II. I sure hope it's wrong, as I have a 4-day holiday weekend (PRE HURRICANE SEASON) planned. You hear that 94L? Something to keep an eye on, certainly.

If the Euro and some other models are right, that would be 2 named storms before Hurricane season even officially starts...now that would be pretty amazing.