EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

I would have wanted the plane to go today as it looks like Bud is going thru an RI,but tommorow will be the first mission.

[brunota2003]

Hurricane Bud O_o?

It's forecast to be a hurricane then.

[cycloneye]

Impressive. However,there is a dry slot to the east of the center,that can cause some disruption to the possible RI that may be going thru.



Here the dry slot looks better.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS 12z backs way off development.......

http://policlimate.com/weather/current/ ... 0_usa.html


Looks like the overall center of the circulation is the one near the Isle of Youth......


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro goes crazy with 94L....bombs it! And shows a TS/Hurricane heading back toward the SE Coast

72 hours



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[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

EP, 02, 2012052318, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1077W, 55, 995, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the 12z ukmet. similar to the euro on track.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... tLoop.html

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro goes crazy with 94L....bombs it! And shows a TS/Hurricane heading back toward the SE Coast

72 hours

[ig]http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/6087/12zeurotropical850mbvor.gif[/img]

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[ig]http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/7208/12zeurotropical850mbvorv.gif[/img]

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[mg]http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/529/12zeurotropical850mbvoru.gif[/img]

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interesting. it seems it develops more ridging than previous models or runs. before it had it in a baroclinic zone rather ridging .

[cycloneye]

Before the above ECMWF graphic of 72 hours,here is where Euro starts in 24 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

here is better look at the 12z Euro.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

12Z ECMWF is showing development of 94L starting in 48 hours. It peaks at 72 hours and moves southwestward while generally maintaining strength due to a blocking high pressure system. It makes a close approach to Florida on the model run and then is swept out to sea.

[cycloneye]

12Z ECMWF is showing development of 94L starting in 48 hours. It peaks at 72 hours and moves southwestward while generally maintaining strength due to a blocking high pressure system. It makes a close approach to Florida on the model run and then is swept out to sea.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... 2z/f72.gif

You posted that at the main thread for discussions of 94L so I moved it into here.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 55kts.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

...BUD MAINTAINING 65-MPH WINDS BUT GROWING IN SIZE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 107.8W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BUD.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND BUD
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BUD HAS DEVELOPED INTO AN ELONGATED
SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. TWO SEPARATE CIRA AMSU ESTIMATES OF WIND
RADII FROM THIS MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WIND FIELD
IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

BUD HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 325/6 KT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE
CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN CAUSE
BUD TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL THAT MOST CLOSELY APPROACHES
THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE LEANS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ON DAYS 4 AND 5...A
SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF IS FAVORED
OVER THE NORTHWARD MOTION TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOWN BY
THE GFDL AND HWRF.

BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 48
HOURS OR SO...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26.5C. AFTER 48 HOURS...A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR...ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR...WARM
200/250 MB TEMPERATURES...AND COOLER SSTS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
WEAKENING. IN FACT...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE
LGEM MODEL.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BUD. BUD IS GROWING IN SIZE...AND EVEN IF
THE CENTER DOES NOT REACH THE COAST...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE JALISCO...
COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN COASTS ON SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 13.9N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.5N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 16.7N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.8N 106.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 18.5N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

From 2205 UTC discussion.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED AT 13.9N 107.8W OR ABOUT 420 NM
SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AS OF 23/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 05 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP AND IS 995
MB AS OF THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
HAS INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE WITH THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL AS BANDING FEATURES
BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS THEY WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE
QUADRANT...150 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT AND 120 NM IN THE NW
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE.

A LOW SHEAR UPPER ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED BUD TO GATHER
INTENSITY SINCE TUE EVENING. THE 21 UTC NHC ADVISORY HAS BUD
INTENSIFYING INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN
INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS NE.
IT IS THEN EXPECTED THAT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMES LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF IT STRENGTHENING FURTHER THU EVENING...AND SO IT
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2
KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM BUD.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not sure whether or not Bud has an eye popping out or not. I mean, convection is firing around it and it looks like an eye. It has a fully constructed eyewall too.

[Yellow Evan]

Won't be surprised to see 60-65 kt at 3z.

[brunota2003]

It just looks like a weak spot in the convection. One thing that I personally think is keeping Bud from undergoing RI is the absence of an upper level anticyclone aloft. TCs need that to help evacuate the air from the center of the system, and I just don't see much in the way of cirrus flowing away from the tropical storm (except in the northern portion).

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Up to 60kts.

EP, 02, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1078W, 60, 992 , TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Bud is very nearly a hurricane.

EP, 02, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1078W, 60, 992, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 0, 40, 1009, 240, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BUD, M,

[cycloneye]

SHIP increases a little bit to the low 30's from the 20's that prior runs had.

WHXX01 KWBC 232352
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2352 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120524 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120524 0000 120524 1200 120525 0000 120525 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 82.6W 22.9N 82.4W 24.7N 81.3W 25.9N 80.6W
BAMD 21.0N 82.6W 24.0N 79.7W 27.8N 77.1W 31.4N 74.3W
BAMM 21.0N 82.6W 23.4N 81.5W 26.1N 80.0W 28.1N 78.2W
LBAR 21.0N 82.6W 22.9N 81.3W 25.7N 80.1W 28.6N 78.6W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 33KTS 32KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 32KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120526 0000 120527 0000 120528 0000 120529 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.9N 80.1W 24.7N 81.1W 23.8N 82.6W 24.8N 83.3W
BAMD 33.8N 71.4W 34.4N 70.0W 33.6N 74.0W 33.2N 77.3W
BAMM 28.6N 76.3W 27.4N 74.7W 28.1N 74.7W 29.4N 76.4W
LBAR 30.6N 76.2W 30.8N 71.1W 29.5N 69.6W 28.5N 69.3W
SHIP 27KTS 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 82.6W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.1N LONM12 = 83.5W DIRM12 = 46DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 84.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 130NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM