Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Maybe Beryl?? 12z GFS in 105 hours shows interesting development east of Florida.



And look where it goes in 129 hours.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the 12Z GFS is very interesting indeed. The next several model runs will be really intriguing to see how they will trend that's for sure.

[cycloneye]

GFS has been upgraded

Let's see how it performs starting with the 12z run.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... hybrid.htm

[cycloneye]

This is not 94L but another Western Caribbean system trying to get going on this 12 GFS run by May 31rst.



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[Aric Dunn]

This is not 94L but another Western Caribbean system trying to get going on this 12 GFS run by May 31rst.



Uploaded with [img=http://imageshack.us/]imageshack.us[/ig]

how did I know someone would mention it ! nice catch.

I was wondering what the GFS was seeing. but looking at the satellite this morning and the models it appears the energy thats still in the carrib will be left behind and being that its still a inverted trough there ( per satellite) it also will have a shot. The difference with this is that the upper environment is more conducive with a weak anti cyclone in place.

[northjaxpro]

There is a slim chance that we can squeeze out a possible third tropical entity before the official start of the 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane season on June 1st. That would be simply amazing.

If this happens that would be unprecedented.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a slim chance that we can squeeze out a possible third tropical entity before the official start of the 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane season on June 1st. That would be simply amazing.

If this happens that would be unprecedented.

yeah be rather strange.

[lebron23]

Is this a East Coast year?

[ROCK]

I don't know about 3 named but the season is starting out faster than I expected...glad I bumped my numbers up....

[HouTXmetro]

My favorite time of the year, looks like this season may be more active than predicted.

[Kingarabian]

My favorite time of the year, looks like this season may be more active than predicted.

I don't know if it will really be more active as Alberto and Beryl formed in an un-orthodox fashion... E.g not from waves etc.

[Riptide]

My favorite time of the year, looks like this season may be more active than predicted.

I don't know if it will really be more active as Alberto and Beryl formed in an un-orthodox fashion... E.g not from waves etc.

It's quite likely that such waves would not exist during may; and why may tropical cyclones are not very common. That's how I see it, for now.

[ROCK]

nothing foreseen by the 12Z GFS today....just some sprinkles in the carib and lowering pressures....wont be long we will get the famous GFS phantom storms in the long range...that is of course if the upgrades didnt wipe those out...

[cycloneye]

it seems we will be for a lull in tropical activity in the North Atlantic and EPAC for a while (2-3 weeks?) unless GFS or ECMWF start to hint on something in that period of time.

[FutureEM]

The 12z Euro and 12z CMC both show some sort of broad low pressure developing in the Bay of Campeche at around 96 hours. Is this something that could be tropical?

CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Euro:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

[ROCK]

The 12z Euro and 12z CMC both show some sort of broad low pressure developing in the Bay of Campeche at around 96 hours. Is this something that could be tropical?

CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Euro:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

I looked at both of these with better resolution than this site.....I dont see nada in the short, medium and or long range.....back to watching the ENSO and future model runs for a few weeks I am afraid.....

[FutureEM]

The 12z Euro and 12z CMC both show some sort of broad low pressure developing in the Bay of Campeche at around 96 hours. Is this something that could be tropical?

CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Euro:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

I looked at both of these with better resolution than this site.....I dont see nada in the short, medium and or long range.....back to watching the ENSO and future model runs for a few weeks I am afraid.....

Thanks for looking into that, I am still pretty noobish when it comes to these things.

The only other thing I was wondering is if somebody knows what this 1008mb low is in the 12z WRF, hugging the coast Belize:

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/cartas/wrf/p01d11225.gif

[ROCK]

could be whats festering down their currently however the WRF is not a reliable model IMO....if the big boys EURO, GFS, CMC starting sniffing this then I would take notice...that area down there in the carib has good upper divergence but nothing at the surface. It is what remains for the trof that spawned Beryl enhanced by that ULL to its west.

[ROCK]

finally the 0z GFS spins something up in the very long range 360hr....about time...woohoo....always good entertainment...

[ROCK]

todays GFS runs show nada in all ranges once again. Waiting on the 0Z to come in.....all seems quiet....