EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

Well, it took a little longer for the eye to become better defined than I thought, but so far my predictions are close. It might even strengthen beyond what I predicted.

[Aric Dunn]

well besides the FSU site not updated often. they did run the hwrf last night. 1000 mb 40kt system into GA

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[GCANE]

Looks like eye-wall has opened up on the SE Quad

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html


I am a bit surprised that rain-rain is relatively light

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[Yellow Evan]

http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/161/buddyh.jpg

Pinhole eye!

Raw T#'s are now @ 5.8.

Could become a major hurricane tomorrow. Recon will have an awesome time tomorrow I'm sure, I hope they stay safe. Night everyone!

I really think it's a Cat. 2 right now:
http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/5334 ... 4epmwt.jpg

Wow, Bud looks beautiful.

[Hurricanehink]

If Bud becomes a major, it'd join Alma in 2002 and Adolph in 2001 as the only May major hurricanes. Bud would be earlier than both of those, which would be interesting since we'd go from the latest major hurricane on record last year with Kenneth to the earliest major hurricane on record with Bud. That's only if it would strengthen more.

['CaneFreak]

Hey there Aric

It looks like the ukie, gfs, and euro are all in good company on this potential development as the CMC, and NOGAPS are all showing the same scenario.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... cloop.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPT ... sloop.html

00z ukmet is right there with the Euro on track and intensity.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

[Yellow Evan]

If Bud becomes a major, it'd join Alma in 2002 and Adolph in 2001 as the only May major hurricanes. Bud would be earlier than both of those, which would be interesting since we'd go from the latest major hurricane on record last year with Kenneth to the earliest major hurricane on record with Bud. That's only if it would strengthen more.

Yea, that would be very odd. Any shot for this to become Cat 4? If it does, it would be even more amazing.

[Yellow Evan]

Quick guess would be 90kts are so. Recon might actually fly into an EPAC storm at its peak for once.

It has happened before (i.e. Beatriz 11, and Jimena 09). But yea, they usually come in after peak.

[brunota2003]

ADT raw T#s now up to 6.5 or about 125 knots. Center temp is now in the positives.

[GCANE]

Textbook core: Centered at 12KM altitude. 4C

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1205241011

[gotoman38]

Still waiting.....

[Yellow Evan]

The eye is still a little ragged and cloud-filled though .

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 106.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST. BUD IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST TODAY. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE BUD THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN


HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

ALTHOUGH ITS INFRARED SIGNATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED...BUD HAS A
WARMING EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -60C. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER AT T5.2. THE INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 90 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO BUD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

BUD HAS ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DRIER MID/UPPER-LEVEL
AIR. IN FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WEST OF THE HURRICANE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST.
ALSO...BUD WILL BE SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...
AND SINCE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE RATHER LOW OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
MIX COLDER WATER TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS...A BIT
MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING TO TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS CLOSELY
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN ROUGHLY MIMICS THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOWN BY THE LGEM MODEL. THIS FORECAST ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND BY SHOWING BUD
DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.

BUD HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
030 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BUT BUD IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT AFTER 48 HOURS...
WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL ACCELERATING BUD TO THE NORTH...THE GFS
BRINGING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY INLAND...AND THE ECMWF TURNING IT
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. IN FAVOR OF CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
STILL SHOWS BUD GETTING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON
DAY 3.

DUE TO FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST ON
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 15.7N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.7N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.0N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

A delay but is going! From 8 AM PDT discussion.

ALTHOUGH ITS INFRARED SIGNATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED...BUD HAS A
WARMING EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -60C. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER AT T5.2. THE INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 90 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO BUD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, no MH is forecast.

[gotoman38]

Still no URPN15 from Teal75 at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URPN15-USAF.shtml?text

[cycloneye]

Note=To have this thread clean of comments and only to post the data that the plane will release,let's make comments about this mission at the Bud main thread,thanks for your cooperation.

[cycloneye]

Note=Let's make comments about the recon mission here and not on the Recon thread to let the flow of data go smoothly there.

[cycloneye]

Here is the TCPOD for the 25th.

NOUS42 KNHC 241430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 24 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-006

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM BUD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0202E BUD
C. 25/1215Z
D. 18.2N 105.6W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[cycloneye]

They are on the air.

Observation Time: Thursday, 15:00Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.4N 90.8W
Location: 614 miles (987 km) to the NE (46°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 350° at 21 knots (From the N at ~ 24.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -22°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -45°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,500 geopotential meters