ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

marathon has switched to a west wind. so the circ is now in florida bay.

[HurricaneBelle]

Folks, it's the Florida STRAITS, not "straights".

Sorry, that was just bugging me no end. We now return to discussion of 94L.

[Aric Dunn]

Another thing. the reason we are seeing the rain sheild shift NW is that the shear is turning from wsw to SSW and probably S later today. After looking at WV the trough axis is beginning to tilt

[crimi481]

I must be in Dire Straights this morning? (LOL)

[chris_fit]

Latest Visible

Love that swirl to the west of Ft Myers out in the Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

Its becoming a little more defined and moving north should be inland soon.

[Hurricaneman]

Its becoming a little more defined and moving north should be inland soon.

I wouldn't be suprised if the current circulation center dies over south Florida and relocates 50 to 75 miles farther east

[Aric Dunn]

Its becoming a little more defined and moving north should be inland soon.

[img]http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg15/scaled.php?server=15&filename=rgbr.jpg&res=landing[/mg]

I wouldn't be suprised if the current circulation center dies over south Florida and relocates 50 to 75 miles farther east

its quite possible that another one develops over the atlantic waters.

[JonathanBelles]

NOAA Hurricane Forecast: 9-15 TS, 4-8 HU, and 1-3 MH...but two tropical storms by the end of May?? My thoughts on that as well as possible impacts on Florida.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... nd-1-3-mh/

[lebron23]

NOAA Hurricane Forecast: 9-15 TS, 4-8 HU, and 1-3 MH...but two tropical storms by the end of May?? My thoughts on that as well as possible impacts on Florida.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... nd-1-3-mh/

I assume things will be somewhat calm throughout June.

[adam0983]

Invest 94L is much better organized this morning. Does anyone think it can become a Tropical Depression today? Invest 94L is now bringing South Florida heavy rain bands this morning.

[lebron23]

Invest 94L is much better organized this morning. Does anyone think it can become a Tropical Depression today? Invest 94L is now bringing South Florida heavy rain bands this morning.

Dont think its likely today. It's doing much better but still fighting shear. NHC calls for a 20 % chance the next 48 hours.

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1146 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL METRO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1141 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PINECREST TO CUTLER BAY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
PALMETTO BAY...
CUTLER RIDGE...
WEST PERRINE...
PINECREST...
ZOO MIAMI...
KENDALL...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

[Aric Dunn]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1146 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL METRO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1141 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PINECREST TO CUTLER BAY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
PALMETTO BAY...
CUTLER RIDGE...
WEST PERRINE...
PINECREST...
ZOO MIAMI...
KENDALL...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

I saw that ... but cant see anything on radar that would cause that...

[SFLcane]

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=Carribbean

[crimi481]

Mother Nature can change our minds fast - as is pattern last 2 years in Tropics
From NWS -Miami Area. Anyone agree - that we now "Watch" -then Forecast, where NWS /NHC was pretty much "spot on" just few years ago? (sorry for off to side thoughts)
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012/
HAVE A
DEEP-SEEDED FEELING THAT S FLA WILL FALL SUBSIDENCE AGAIN TODAY...
LIMITING CONVECTION. WITH SW STEERING WINDS ALOFT...SUNSHINE WITH
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SOME ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR
OF S FLA TODAY WHICH WILL MOVE NE TODAY AND FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE.

[Aric Dunn]

Mother Nature can change our minds fast - as is pattern last 2 years in Tropics
From NWS -Miami Area. Anyone agree - that we now "Watch" -then Forecast, where NWS /NHC was pretty much "spot on" just few years ago? (sorry for off to side thoughts)
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012/
HAVE A
DEEP-SEEDED FEELING THAT S FLA WILL FALL SUBSIDENCE AGAIN TODAY...
LIMITING CONVECTION. WITH SW STEERING WINDS ALOFT...SUNSHINE WITH
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SOME ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR
OF S FLA TODAY WHICH WILL MOVE NE TODAY AND FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE.

well that did not happen. they are getting a lot of rain.

[lebron23]

For Miami

THROUGH 2 PM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION,
INCLUDING THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

['CaneFreak]

VERY strong mid level center to the SE of Miami...let's see if it can make it down to the surface

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[wzrgirl1]

This is happening quite quickly considering yesterday there was a 0% chance of anything forming within those 48 hours. Wonder if it has enough time to actually develop? Hmmm....