EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Live visible loop:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

[vbhoutex]

Sure has improved its' appearance since yesterday. Looks like the center is working on clearing out too. I bet there is some awesome surf along the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS rolling on in. looks a little more inline with current conditions.

[lebron23]

2 storms same spot..hm.

[Aric Dunn]

So far its maintaining this current low not redeveloping another.

[gotoman38]

For some reason - we have no HDOBs, only RECCOs - and those are coming up under the Atlantic feed, not EPAC

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 15:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 15:30Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 26.3N 92.8W
Location: 425 miles (684 km) to the NE (48°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 350° at 26 knots (From the N at ~ 29.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -21°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Is most likely too dry to measure. If it is instead colder than -49.4°C, it will appear in the remarks section.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,510 geopotential meters

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 18 knots (~ 20.7mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

DEW POINT NEG 55 DEGREES C

[northjaxpro]

If the current circulation moves inland over SE FL later today as it appears it will, then the re-formation of another LLC probably occurs in the NW Bahamas. Also, I am beginning to wonder just how much northward progress 94L will make after tomorrow. Looking at the recent models, a rather strong ridge is currently beginning to build eastward from the Midwest. This is forecast to build in all the way to the Mid Atlantic during the weekend. 94L is going to come to a big stop somewhere north of the Bahamas sometime in the next 36-48 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

If the current circulation moves inland over SE FL later today as it appears it will, then the re-formation of another LLC probably occurs in the NW Bahamas. Also, I am beginning to wonder just how much northward progress 94L will make after tomorrow. Looking at the recent models, a rather strong ridge is currently beginning to build eastward from the Midwest. This is forecast to build in all the way to the Mid Atlantic during the weekend. 94L is going to come to a big stop somewhere north of the Bahamas sometime in the next 36-48 hours.

well for the first time the 12z GFS maintains this circ all the way to about 36 to 48 hours then quickly merges it with one that develops to its NE. I dont think it will make that far north if this low stays together.

[lebron23]

This storm has really improved the past 24 hours. Wow.

[cycloneye]

The plane is in the air but something is wrong that no HDOBS have been released,although recco observations have been released. Hopefully,they fix it to see the whole data as it will be facinating to see how strong Bud is.

[gotoman38]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 16:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 16:01Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 24.0N 94.7W
Location: 235 miles (378 km) to the ENE (59°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 310° at 13 knots (From the NW at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -21°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Is most likely too dry to measure. If it is instead colder than -49.4°C, it will appear in the remarks section.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,530 geopotential meters

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 24 knots (~ 27.6mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

DEW POINT NEG 52 DEGREES C


**** gotoman38 note: still no HDOBS

[cycloneye]

Common plane!!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 MAY 2012 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 15:34:41 N Lon : 106:44:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.6mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -65.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ptarmigan]

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/7875/ztemp.jpg

Live visible loop:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

I think Bud is going to be a major hurricane. When I see a hurricane image like that, I know it is going to be rapidly intensifying.

[gotoman38]

Based on RECCO - looks like they're about half-way to the edge of the storm - 1/3 to the center.

Hoping for HDOBS!

[brunota2003]

Alright...I get to post my first RI forecast of this 2012 season.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The indicator is there, but it is a weaker version...however, I'm going to go with a 40 or 45 knot jump in wind speed over the next 24 hours. It looks to have first appeared in the 21Z to 22Z (5 pm EDT to 6 pm EDT) timeframe (the products finally updated), which would put RI beginning around approximately 03Z to 05Z (11 pm EDT to 1 am EDT). I believe the convection exploding in the bottom right is just the beginning, and it should continue to fire. The eye feature should become better defined and circular. Outflow is finally pushing away from Bud, and coupled with that convective burst, should finally push everything into overdrive.

Going off of the 8 pm EDT Best Track, wind speeds were 60 knots...so a 40 or 45 knot increase will put Bud at 100 or 105 knots by 8 pm EDT tomorrow.

This is my first prediction of the season, so I could be way off and Bud sputters and dies...or Bud could intensify only slightly...new season, need to refresh myself and get back into the grove of things.

Looking at the latest...my forecast may have been too low (ADT is now saying 115 knots, though personally, it looks weaker than that...most of the convection is on the western side currently). Even though there is still 7 hours until 00Z, I am keeping my intensity guess at 100 or 105 knots. Recon is currently enroute and will hopefully be able to gather more information and really help us decide on Bud's strength.

[gotoman38]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 16:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 04

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 16:30Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 22.1N 96.2W
Location: 106 miles (171 km) to the E (95°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 300° at 21 knots (From the WNW at ~ 24.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Is most likely too dry to measure. If it is instead colder than -49.4°C, it will appear in the remarks section.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,560 geopotential meters

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 23 knots (~ 26.5mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

DEW POINT NEG 51 DEGREES C

[cycloneye]

12z CMC in 84 hours.

[RL3AO]

Looking at the latest...my forecast may have been too low (ADT is now saying 115 knots, though personally, it looks weaker than that...most of the convection is on the western side currently). Even though there is still 7 hours until 00Z, I am keeping my intensity guess at 100 or 105 knots. Recon is currently enroute and will hopefully be able to gather more information and really help us decide on Bud's strength.

Its 95 to 100kt right now if I had to guestimate.



Over the years I've noticed that the main difference between a cat 2/3 and cat 4 is that the eye becomes a near perfect circle around 110 to 115kts.

[gotoman38]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 17:01Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.9N 97.6W (View map)
Location: 105 miles (169 km) to the ENE (71°) from México City, Distrito Federal, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 280° at 34 knots (From the W at ~ 39.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -18°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -29°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,580 geopotential meters

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 241709
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 19 20120524
170100 1955N 09738W 3927 07720 0407 -177 -300 280033 034 /// /// 03
170130 1953N 09740W 3923 07728 0408 -176 -322 279034 036 /// /// 03
170200 1951N 09741W 3926 07723 0409 -172 -353 275037 038 /// /// 03
170230 1948N 09742W 3929 07717 0409 -171 -337 274038 038 /// /// 03
170300 1946N 09744W 3923 07730 0411 -175 -262 275038 038 /// /// 03
170330 1944N 09745W 3925 07729 0411 -175 -306 275037 037 /// /// 03
170400 1942N 09747W 3930 07720 0411 -175 -299 280036 037 /// /// 03
170430 1940N 09748W 3919 07736 0410 -175 -297 281036 037 /// /// 03
170500 1938N 09749W 3881 07811 0414 -176 -341 280036 037 /// /// 03
170530 1936N 09751W 3837 07894 0418 -181 -349 278036 036 /// /// 03
170600 1934N 09752W 3788 07990 0424 -184 -338 276035 035 /// /// 03
170630 1932N 09753W 3749 08068 0428 -191 -367 275035 036 /// /// 03
170700 1930N 09755W 3707 08151 0433 -197 -389 276035 035 /// /// 03
170730 1928N 09756W 3662 08242 0439 -204 -395 272034 035 /// /// 03
170800 1926N 09757W 3626 08316 0444 -211 -386 271037 037 /// /// 03
170830 1924N 09758W 3585 08397 0450 -216 -389 269036 037 /// /// 03
170900 1923N 09800W 3544 08484 0455 -222 -347 271035 035 /// /// 03
170930 1921N 09801W 3512 08551 0458 -228 -347 272034 034 /// /// 03
171000 1919N 09802W 3468 08637 0459 -236 -344 270033 033 /// /// 03
171030 1917N 09803W 3426 08727 0465 -242 -331 267034 034 /// /// 03
$$

FIRST HDOBS FROM THIS MISSION