ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

VERY strong mid level center to the SE of Miami...let's see if it can make it down to the surface

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

thats not very midlevel being the radar is really close. somewhere is the 950mb range.

looks like 1500 ft or so.

['CaneFreak]

Never mind...yeah...you're right...this could become the dominant LLC to track.

VERY strong mid level center to the SE of Miami...let's see if it can make it down to the surface

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

thats not very midlevel being the radar is really close. somewhere is the 950mb range.

looks like 1500 ft or so.

[Aric Dunn]

Never mind...yeah...you're right...this could become the dominant LLC to track.

VERY strong mid level center to the SE of Miami...let's see if it can make it down to the surface

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

thats not very midlevel being the radar is really close. somewhere is the 950mb range.

looks like 1500 ft or so.

at this rate. we will probably see a continuation of the last couple days of new vort develop then another as it follows each burst of convection .

[hurricanefloyd5]

remember tropical storm fay it strengthened over south florida because it swampy areas down there so what if this happens again with 94L

[lebron23]

I'm shocked at how it looks today, it was so elongated yesterday

[Aric Dunn]

doppler estimates of that convection nearly ontop of miami beach are showing winds of nearly 70mph new severe t'storm warning for it.

[Evil Jeremy]

remember tropical storm fay it strengthened over south florida because it swampy areas down there so what if this happens again with 94L

Fay was a strong and well organized tropical storm. This is a weak invest with barely an LLC. No comparison.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think this will form quickly once the circulation is over water. Very Quickly.

[lebron23]

I think this will form quickly once the circulation is over water. Very Quickly.

It needs to form a strong LLC first. There isnt much of one

[Evil Jeremy]

Code orange

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241654
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN

[lebron23]

40 percent hmm

[Aric Dunn]

yeah not surprised. been trying to get better organized. but with shear of nearly 70 mph pretty much not going to happen.

[ozonepete]

doppler estimates of that convection nearly ontop of miami beach are showing winds of nearly 70mph new severe t'storm warning for it.

Here's a storm relative velocity radar image from just before 1PM. You can see at least 50 knot winds just offshore from Miami. It also shows the curvature of the LLC feature pretty well.

[tailgater]

yeah looks like it's (llc) has shifted right, to just the east of Miami, NOW REPORTING NNE winds at 18mph.

[northjaxpro]

yeah looks like it's (llc) has shifted right, to just the east of Miami, NOW REPORTING NNE winds at 18mph.

Looking at radar and visible satellite imagery, indeed it looks as if the LLC is due south-southeast of Miami right now.

[lebron23]

With all the shear I really have to doubt chances for development.

[Riptide]

The structure of Invest 94L is changing at lightspeed, i'm surprised by the rate of organization. It was a hot mess only 12 hours ago.

[Fyzn94]

In the event that it does develop.....when did we last have 2 pre-season tropical cyclones in the ATL?

[seahawkjd]

It was in the 1800's so its been a while.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah looks like it's (llc) has shifted right, to just the east of Miami, NOW REPORTING NNE winds at 18mph.

Looking at radar and visible satellite imagery, indeed it looks as if the LLC is due south-southeast of Miami right now.

unfortunately there are no west wind reports associated with that feature. All still east to ene. albeit at over 40mph right now.