EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

I agree with the 95 or 100 knots right now...I'm just not confident that it is going to strengthen much more than what it is currently between now and 00Z. When I posted my forecast last night, NHC was forecasting a 75 knot hurricane by 00Z tonight, so obviously I was a little nervous forecasting 25 or 30 knots over what they were thinking in the same time period.

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 241719
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 20 20120524
171100 1915N 09804W 3387 08815 0472 -249 -331 266034 035 /// /// 03
171130 1914N 09806W 3352 08889 0477 -254 -315 263037 038 /// /// 03
171200 1912N 09807W 3318 08965 0482 -258 -314 261037 038 /// /// 03
171230 1910N 09808W 3281 09044 0487 -260 -309 259039 039 /// /// 03
171300 1908N 09809W 3251 09113 0493 -265 -326 259038 038 /// /// 03
171330 1907N 09810W 3222 09178 0498 -270 -333 258037 037 /// /// 03
171400 1905N 09811W 3196 09238 0503 -270 -334 260036 037 /// /// 03
171430 1903N 09812W 3184 09265 0505 -275 -339 261037 037 /// /// 03
171500 1902N 09814W 3180 09276 0505 -275 -344 261036 037 /// /// 03
171530 1900N 09815W 3175 09286 0506 -275 -349 261036 036 /// /// 03
171600 1858N 09816W 3175 09286 0506 -275 -354 262036 036 /// /// 03
171630 1857N 09817W 3168 09302 0507 -279 -353 262035 036 /// /// 03
171700 1855N 09818W 3156 09328 0509 -280 -356 264035 035 /// /// 03
171730 1853N 09819W 3147 09350 0510 -280 -365 265034 034 /// /// 03
171800 1851N 09821W 3147 09351 0511 -280 -368 265033 034 /// /// 03
171830 1850N 09822W 3148 09349 0511 -280 -370 268032 032 /// /// 03
171900 1849N 09824W 3148 09350 0511 -280 -367 268030 030 /// /// 03
171930 1849N 09827W 3147 09352 0512 -277 -374 266029 029 /// /// 03
172000 1849N 09829W 3148 09350 0511 -278 -382 267029 029 /// /// 03
172030 1848N 09831W 3148 09350 0510 -279 -377 267028 028 /// /// 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

local WRF model


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wrf/arw9_cz.php

[RL3AO]

Recon passing south of Mexico City right now.

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 241729
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 21 20120524
172100 1848N 09834W 3148 09349 0510 -279 -387 269028 028 /// /// 03
172130 1847N 09836W 3147 09350 0510 -280 -378 270028 028 /// /// 03
172200 1847N 09838W 3148 09351 0511 -279 -385 269029 029 /// /// 03
172230 1847N 09841W 3148 09350 0512 -275 -397 270029 030 /// /// 03
172300 1846N 09843W 3148 09350 0511 -275 -406 271029 030 /// /// 03
172330 1846N 09845W 3148 09349 0511 -276 -411 268030 031 /// /// 03
172400 1845N 09848W 3148 09349 0510 -280 -396 267029 030 /// /// 03
172430 1845N 09850W 3148 09349 0511 -279 -396 270028 028 /// /// 03
172500 1844N 09853W 3148 09350 0512 -275 -417 275028 029 /// /// 03
172530 1844N 09855W 3148 09352 0513 -274 -422 275028 029 /// /// 03
172600 1844N 09857W 3148 09350 0513 -271 -426 276028 028 /// /// 03
172630 1843N 09900W 3147 09352 0513 -275 -431 274029 029 /// /// 03
172700 1843N 09902W 3150 09346 0512 -274 -431 274028 028 /// /// 03
172730 1842N 09905W 3150 09347 0511 -271 -431 273027 027 /// /// 03
172800 1842N 09907W 3148 09348 0511 -270 -433 273027 027 /// /// 03
172830 1842N 09909W 3150 09347 0511 -270 -438 274026 026 /// /// 03
172900 1841N 09912W 3147 09352 0510 -270 -428 271026 026 /// /// 03
172930 1841N 09914W 3150 09344 0510 -270 -425 270026 026 /// /// 03
173000 1841N 09917W 3147 09350 0510 -270 -431 273024 024 /// /// 03
173030 1842N 09919W 3148 09348 0510 -270 -430 274024 024 /// /// 03
$$

Mission made a climb from ~7300m to 9350m S of Mexico City

[tolakram]

Continuing to look better, in my opinion.



Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

Create Your Own instructions: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/getsatellite.html

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT Advisory=110 mph

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...BUD STILL INTENSIFYING...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE
TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 106.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE BUD IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

[Aric Dunn]

12z UKMET similar to the EURO again.
except it maintains the current circ in florida bay

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... tLoop.html

[cycloneye]

I am posting the data while gotoman38 comes back.

000
URPN15 KNHC 241809
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 25 20120524
180100 1745N 10120W 3151 09338 0505 -275 -363 264014 015 /// /// 03
180130 1743N 10121W 3146 09348 0505 -275 -364 262014 015 /// /// 03
180200 1741N 10123W 3150 09339 0505 -275 -365 264013 014 /// /// 03
180230 1739N 10125W 3150 09339 0504 -275 -364 266012 013 /// /// 03
180300 1738N 10127W 3147 09346 0503 -275 -358 270011 011 /// /// 03
180330 1736N 10129W 3149 09337 0501 -278 -349 283009 010 /// /// 03
180400 1736N 10132W 3150 09337 0500 -280 -349 279007 008 /// /// 03
180430 1736N 10134W 3148 09337 0500 -280 -347 272007 007 /// /// 03
180500 1736N 10137W 3148 09338 0500 -276 -354 262008 008 /// /// 03
180530 1736N 10139W 3148 09337 0500 -275 -356 256008 008 /// /// 03
180600 1735N 10142W 3148 09337 0499 -276 -355 246007 008 /// /// 03
180630 1735N 10145W 3147 09339 0500 -276 -355 239009 009 /// /// 03
180700 1735N 10147W 3148 09338 0500 -275 -353 233009 009 /// /// 03
180730 1735N 10150W 3149 09336 0499 -275 -351 230009 009 /// /// 03
180800 1735N 10152W 3148 09337 0498 -278 -349 227008 009 /// /// 03
180830 1734N 10155W 3146 09343 0498 -275 -333 222011 012 /// /// 03
180900 1734N 10158W 3148 09338 0498 -276 -337 217012 013 /// /// 03
180930 1734N 10200W 3150 09332 0497 -278 -344 213010 011 /// /// 03
181000 1734N 10203W 3148 09336 0497 -280 -345 206008 008 /// /// 03
181030 1734N 10206W 3148 09335 0496 -280 -345 193008 008 /// /// 03
$$

[gotoman38]

Missing 4 data sets from recon now.

Last HDOBS from Teal75 were received at 173030
Missing sets for 174030, 175030, 160030, and 161030.

Also missing the 30 minute RECCO they had been transmitting.

(Hoping to break the problem, whatever it is.

[GCANE]

May end up as a warm core prior to landfall

[Aric Dunn]

May end up as a warm core prior to landfall

prior? its started out warm core on that. just shallow.

[ROCK]

models have come to a consensus it looks like....so much so IMO we will get a name out of this. With all the weekenders on the beaches they will want to know sooner rather than later if their is a storm coming in.....

[CrazyC83]

How strong will this get? Could it become Cat 4? (5 is unlikely)

A wild guess right now is 105 kt, but Recon will tell the truth soon.

[hurricaneCW]

All this early season activity could give us at least a near normal season rather than below, especially if we get another name soon.

[gotoman38]

Got it for now - they switched from ATL to EPAC feeds

URPN15 KNHC 241819
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 26 20120524
181100 1733N 10208W 3150 09333 0497 -280 -345 187008 009 /// /// 03
181130 1733N 10211W 3148 09339 0500 -280 -343 187009 009 /// /// 03
181200 1733N 10213W 3148 09339 0501 -280 -337 184010 010 /// /// 03
181230 1733N 10216W 3148 09338 0501 -280 -336 178010 010 /// /// 03
181300 1733N 10219W 3148 09339 0501 -280 -331 177011 011 /// /// 03
181330 1732N 10221W 3147 09341 0500 -283 -313 181011 011 /// /// 03
181400 1732N 10224W 3150 09335 0500 -284 -301 180011 012 /// /// 03
181430 1732N 10227W 3146 09343 0500 -278 -282 200016 020 /// /// 03
181500 1732N 10229W 3147 09338 0499 -275 -280 208024 025 /// /// 03
181530 1732N 10232W 3148 09336 0498 -277 -280 203026 027 /// /// 03
181600 1731N 10235W 3148 09337 0498 -279 -279 204026 027 /// /// 03
181630 1731N 10237W 3149 09335 0498 -278 -280 201024 027 /// /// 03
181700 1731N 10240W 3146 09343 0499 -280 //// 202025 026 /// /// 05
181730 1731N 10242W 3150 09333 0498 -280 //// 200024 025 /// /// 05
181800 1731N 10245W 3148 09337 0499 -280 //// 201028 030 /// /// 05
181830 1730N 10248W 3151 09330 0498 -275 //// 198030 031 034 004 05
181900 1730N 10250W 3147 09338 0498 -278 //// 193029 030 034 003 01
181930 1730N 10253W 3148 09338 0499 -277 //// 193030 034 032 001 01
182000 1730N 10256W 3150 09332 0499 -275 //// 189035 035 030 000 01
182030 1730N 10258W 3150 09331 0498 -274 //// 184035 036 029 000 01
$$

Still Cruising at altitude (9300+ m)

[GCANE]

prior? its started out warm core on that. just shallow.

More like a true TC core, not a hybrid.

[gotoman38]

Now descending

URPN15 KNHC 241829
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 27 20120524
182100 1729N 10301W 3144 09345 0498 -275 //// 186038 040 029 000 01
182130 1729N 10303W 3150 09333 0498 -273 //// 183037 038 031 001 01
182200 1729N 10306W 3148 09336 0498 -279 //// 184032 036 032 000 01
182230 1729N 10309W 3150 09333 0498 -276 //// 177030 031 033 003 01
182300 1728N 10311W 3146 09343 0500 -275 //// 178030 031 032 004 01
182330 1728N 10314W 3147 09341 0499 -275 //// 179029 031 034 001 01
182400 1728N 10317W 3148 09336 0498 -273 //// 180027 030 032 001 01
182430 1728N 10319W 3146 09342 0499 -275 //// 200022 024 033 000 01
182500 1728N 10322W 3150 09332 0498 -271 //// 209022 023 033 000 01
182530 1727N 10325W 3236 09143 0492 -262 //// 215024 026 033 000 01
182600 1727N 10328W 3364 08873 0484 -245 -273 208029 031 032 000 03
182630 1727N 10331W 3438 08707 0471 -226 -284 196034 034 031 000 00
182700 1727N 10333W 3471 08639 0466 -225 -276 192035 035 032 000 00
182730 1726N 10336W 3574 08428 0458 -210 -246 188032 034 031 000 00
182800 1726N 10339W 3695 08186 0446 -194 -221 197026 027 032 000 00
182830 1726N 10342W 3821 07937 0433 -178 -204 198027 029 032 000 00
182900 1726N 10345W 3952 07686 0417 -164 -175 191027 028 033 001 00
182930 1725N 10348W 4095 07417 0400 -154 -166 179030 031 033 000 00
183000 1725N 10351W 4245 07146 0385 -144 -162 175031 031 /// /// 03
183030 1725N 10354W 4407 06861 0367 -125 -153 171032 034 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

Here we go folks. Plane is decending so let's prepare to see how strong Bud really is.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro a little early today...