ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Raising my chances once again.

I am giving 94L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. A ~100% chance in its lifetime.

cycloneye adds S2K Disclaimer

[HurrMark]

Crazy...let's see how far we can get into the alphabet before we get a hurricane this year.

This (pre) season is reminding me a bit of '97 so far.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like straight east of Palm beach is possibly a new surface vort/ circ (on visible surface obs do not reflect this yet) . . which will likely develop then stall as convection build then as before the shear will blow everything away and it starts all over till the shear stops.

[Hurricane Andrew]

When is the sher supposed to weaken?

[Aric Dunn]

Starting saturday.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

When is the sher supposed to weaken?

It's already slowly lowering. It won't be favorable for tropical development until Saturday though.

[Hurricane Andrew]

CIMSS
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[hurricanefloyd5]

94L beryl yet

[SunnyThoughts]

I'd say about a 90-100% chance of Beryl by Sunday. Should be subtropical to start with. Great deal of shear until late Saturday. Maybe a strong TS Sunday as it heads SW toward NE Florida. Some weakening likely before it reaches the coast. Third TS of the season (Azores system will likely be classified as such after the season ends.)

One thing is for sure, if Wxman57 is 90-100% sure of a storm forming. Folks need to pretty much take it to the bank. The mets on this site are phenomenal, and it isn't often you see Wxman57 this bullish with anything in the formative stages.

Welcome back to all the familiar folks, and welcome aboard to all the new people. Storm2k is the BEST place to be during hurricane season.

[Aric Dunn]

as anticipated. seems just east of Ft lauderdale clearly seen on satellite and radar. we have a much tigther vort/circ. This should either be stationary for a little while or even migrate to the west as whats left of the circ to its south dies and moves east. so west palm may get a little something like miami did this morning.

[Bocadude85]

as anticipated. seems just east of Ft lauderdale clearly seen on satellite and radar. we have a much tigther vort/circ. This should either be stationary for a little while or even migrate to the west as whats left of the circ to its south dies and moves east. so west palm may get a little something like miami did this morning.

Seems to be a little to far east to have much effect on West Palm

[Evil Jeremy]

94L beryl yet

No. You will know when the thread title changes, among other ways of finding out.

[Aric Dunn]

as anticipated. seems just east of Ft lauderdale clearly seen on satellite and radar. we have a much tigther vort/circ. This should either be stationary for a little while or even migrate to the west as whats left of the circ to its south dies and moves east. so west palm may get a little something like miami did this morning.

Seems to be a little to far east to have much effect on West Palm

The moisture envelope is still covering most of central and south florida. so I would not be surprised to see another burst of convection with the present on as it slowly retrogrades to west or stays stationary over the next few hours. probably not has intense as what happened but some heavier stuff could rotate in. Also expect the winds on the Ft.L area to switch offshore soon.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Aric, do you think they will issue a 8pm STWO?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, do you think they will issue a 8pm STWO?

not unless something changes. or they think its relevant.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[NDG]

I don't expect much out of 94L during the next 24 hrs, Friday night into Saturday when the UL trough axis positions itself closer to surface low and shear starts slacking is when it will start gathering organization and strength, it will have that hybrid loook with an ULL closing off pretty much on top of it, then start aquiring more tropical charecteristics as it retrogrades westward into warmer waters of the gulf stream.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BreinLa]

I'd say about a 90-100% chance of Beryl by Sunday. Should be subtropical to start with. Great deal of shear until late Saturday. Maybe a strong TS Sunday as it heads SW toward NE Florida. Some weakening likely before it reaches the coast. Third TS of the season (Azores system will likely be classified as such after the season ends.)

One thing is for sure, if Wxman57 is 90-100% sure of a storm forming. Folks need to pretty much take it to the bank. The mets on this site are phenomenal, and it isn't often you see Wxman57 this bullish with anything in the formative stages.

Welcome back to all the familiar folks, and welcome aboard to all the new people. Storm2k is the BEST place to be during hurricane season.

Totally Agree with that statement sunny!!!!!

[AdamFirst]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES21152012145TAAEyU.jpg

That is a huge, huge mass of clouds. Is all that precip?

[tailgater]

Back to looking like hot mess as someone put it earlier. looooong way to go before we get BERYL