2012 Hurricane Season! Is here!!

[Ntxw]

A little update on water temperatures. The high warm anomalies seen in the gulf of Mexico last month has lessened a bit this month (still warm but not quite the intensity). Waters off the African continue to cool even against natural warming temperatures about a month and half away from the summer solstice (thanks to easterly trades). Waters off the South American coast remains warm.

These elements continue the backing of the predictions by CSU and others for a lessened amount of named storms compared to previous. Got to look at the whole picture vs just enso

[cycloneye]

A little update on water temperatures. The high warm anomalies seen in the gulf of Mexico last month has lessened a bit this month (still warm but not quite the intensity). Waters off the African continue to cool even against natural warming temperatures about a month and half away from the summer solstice (thanks to easterly trades). Waters off the South American coast remains warm.

These elements continue the backing of the predictions by CSU and others for a lessened amount of named storms compared to previous. Got to look at the whole picture vs just enso

http://i45.tinypic.com/15rkunn.gif

Here is the animation from January 1rst to present. It updates on Mondays and Thursdays.

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue also has a great SST page, here's the latest higher-resolution Atlantic map:

http://policlimate.com/weather/SST/sst_ ... f_2012.png

And here's his SST website:
http://policlimate.com/weather/sst.html

[cycloneye]

Ryan Maue also has a great SST page, here's the latest higher-resolution Atlantic map:

http://policlimate.com/weather/SST/sst_ ... f_2012.png

And here's his SST website:
http://policlimate.com/weather/sst.html

Nice site with important graphics. Bookmarked.

[cycloneye]

Florida1118, I added to the list of important dates at the first post the 2012 NOAA North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook that will be released on May 24th as I asked the question of when they will be releasing at their Facebook page and got the answer.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting that EURO has less higher pressures in the Atlantic on this May update than in the March and April ones.
ROCK, what do you think about this change of less higher MSLP in Atlantic by EURO?

March Update



April Update



May Update

[NDG]

It has less higher pressures for the Atlantic because it is backing away from a moderate/strong El Nino forecast as earlier forecasted.

[wxman57]

When is NOAA/CPC issuing its 2012 hurricane season forecast?

[NDG]

Don't they usually have it out close to June 1st.
Smart choice, IMO.

[cycloneye]

When is NOAA/CPC issuing its 2012 hurricane season forecast?

I added yesterday the date to the list on first post of thread (May 24th)

[wxman57]

Last year the 2011 forecast was issued on May 19th.

[cycloneye]

Last year the 2011 forecast was issued on May 19th.

57, here is the press statement about the May 24th release by NOAA of their May outlook.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/advisories ... tlook.html

[cycloneye]

The May update of the pressures or MSLP continues to look with less and less reds and oranges on the North Atlantic basin for August,September and October than in the April one.

April Update




May Update

[CrazyC83]

The countdown seems moot now since in practical sense, hurricane season is underway.

[cycloneye]

TSR releases a preforecast as they will do another one on June 5th. It calls for 13/6/3.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... on2012.pdf

[KatDaddy]

A few reasons to be prepared along the Upper TX Coast for the 2012 Hurricane Season.

The average number of years between the direct effect of a tropical storm is about 3 years....IKE was 4 years ago and nothing since.

Even more concerning is the average number of years between major hurricanes (CAT 3 or greater). The Upper TX Coast averages about 20 years between major hurricanes. The record between major hurricanes directly effecting the Houston-Galveston areas since 1900 was Carla 1961 to Alicia 1983......22 years. Its been 29 years since Hurricane Alicia 1983.....IKE was only a CAT 2.

Forecast models indicate we will transition from ENSO-neutral to ENSO-El Nino during the Summer. This lessons the overall tropical cyclones due to shear over the Atlantic Basin however it does not affect the Gulf Of Mexico. One study has found 13 of the 17 major hurricanes which effected the Texas coast occurred during El Nino or Neutral years. The study was with a small dataset however it appears to indicate a positive correlation between both an increased frequency and intensity of land-falling tropical cyclones on the Texas coast.

Bottom line....be ready every hurricane season and prehaps more ready this year.

[Ptarmigan]

Since Beryl is the second storm. The last time we saw two storms before June 1st are 1887 and 1908. 1887 was very active, while 1908 was about average. However, those seasons could have more storms.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1887_Atlan ... ane_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1908_Atlan ... ane_season

[cycloneye]

Getting closer and closer to the official start.

http://www.timeanddate.com/counters/cus ... =00&p0=804

[cycloneye]

Officially,the North Atlantic season has arrived!

[ROCK]

here we go!!

interesting that the EURO has backed off from its earlier forecast. I know some pre-season forecasts were based on these higher pressures forecasted by the EURO. I didnt beleive it at the time thus I raised my numbers to 13/9/4...feel good about my numbers now....