ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

Rock: We'll see. 4 people voted Friday in the poll.

[Dean4Storms]

Seems to be organizing given the pressure falls and winds seen at that buoy, throw in a better satellite presentation and I think we have a Tropical Storm overnight. Recon gets there in the morning to find a 60mph storm on the NE Quad with the gradient tightening.

[NDG]

pressure falling even faster.... pressure at the buoy ( not the center.) is now 1006mb. winds sustained at near TS force gusting to 50 mph

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres ... _label=EDT

With such strong winds, I have to come to the conclussion that the pressures of the low pressure center has to be at least 1004 mb if not lower.
By the way, the lowest pressure that the buoy has measured is 1005.7mb

Supplemental Measurements Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (EDT) Pressure
3:44 pm 29.70 in
Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (EDT) WSPD WDIR
3:44 pm 36.9 kts SE ( 130 deg true )

[Nimbus]

Looks like it will have some time over the warm gulf stream after the shear lets up and it drifts SW. Hope the models can start to nail down a LLC track.

Given the current proximity the best scenario would be to have it move inland quickly before it has much of a chance to strengthen. Any of the pros using the H word yet?

[SeminoleWind]

Question here, if it were to strengthen faster would that not mean a track further north, say Georgia/SC as opposed to weaker say north Florida?

[MGC]

94L looks like it is coming together quickly this afternoon. Should form SE of NC late Saturday. NHC will wait for recon to verify things. Season is off to a fast start.....MGC

[ROCK]

Question here, if it were to strengthen faster would that not mean a track further north, say Georgia/SC as opposed to weaker say north Florida?

models has trended south and west in the next 72hrs....I think they are getting a handle on the strength of the ridge...

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks like it will have some time over the warm gulf stream after the shear lets up and it drifts SW. Hope the models can start to nail down a LLC track.

Given the current proximity the best scenario would be to have it move inland quickly before it has much of a chance to strengthen. Any of the pros using the H word yet?

Haven't heard anyone use the "H" word yet. Although, if the storm strengthens sooner than expected, which everyone seems to think it might be doing, There isn't that much difference between a moderate to strong tropical storm..and that "H" word. Enjoying reading everyone's analysis.

[Evil Jeremy]

Question here, if it were to strengthen faster would that not mean a track further north, say Georgia/SC as opposed to weaker say north Florida?

models has trended south and west in the next 72hrs....I think they are getting a handle on the strength of the ridge...

And a strong storm and a strong ridge would only reinforce each other. A reciprocal interaction that results in 94L being pushed more south.

[SunnyThoughts]

[northjaxpro]

94L is slowly beginning to put some clothes on now. Satellite visible imagery presentation shows that the organization is gradually improving . I agree that later tonight as the shear relaxes even more we will begin to see convection fire around the circulation center and begin wrapping into it as well. I would not be surprised if NHC names it a TS by tomorrow morning. Recon is scheduled for 18Z tomorrow afternoon, but I have a feeling it will be designated by that time.

[NDG]

IMO, along with satellite presentation, buoy reports will be enough to upgrade 94L later tonight or tomorrow morning before recon gets there tomorrow afternoon.

[Aric Dunn]

IMO, along with satellite presentation, buoy reports will be enough to upgrade 94L later tonight or tomorrow morning before recon gets there tomorrow afternoon.

well its probably close to being sub tropical atm but still a little to frontal.

[NDG]

IMO, along with satellite presentation, buoy reports will be enough to upgrade 94L later tonight or tomorrow morning before recon gets there tomorrow afternoon.

well its probably close to being sub tropical atm but still a little to frontal.

True, it has that frontal look.

[NDG]

Close up look:

[thundercam96]

The models keep moving south through florida

[lebron23]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hR0hXGti ... e=youtu.be

[northjaxpro]

The apparent circulation based on visible satellite is at 31.5 N 74.9 W.

Rough estimate of course.

[NDG]

Buoy's pressure now down to 1004 mb!!

Conditions at 41002 as of
(4:50 pm EDT)
2050 GMT on 05/25/2012:
Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 15.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 7.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 158 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.66 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.24 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[Aric Dunn]

pressure at buoy now down to 1004Mb

center should be very near bye. winds direction switched to SE.