ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Twitter from Joe Bastardi.

@BigJoeBastardi loss of visible imagery may preclude NHC naming until tomorrow morning -- from IR, I'd go for Subtropical Depression

I thought this would happen. NHC loves having satellite images when upgrading a storm. We probably won't get an upgrade until 11am. I'm still pulling for a classification tonight though.

[Dean4Storms]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Tweet from Joe Bastardi.

@BigJoeBastardi loss of visible imagery may preclude NHC naming until tomorrow morning -- from IR, I'd go for Subtropical Depression

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 33/photo/1

Actually that is @Joe from RyanMaue...... Joe is saying it is a Tropical Storm already!

BigJoeBastardi

THIS IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM http://pic.twitter.com/0ssZRPTL

[Dean4Storms]

It's the most organized disturbance I've seen in a long time without being classified something!

[ozonepete]

Is this still a probable GA landfall, or is Florida still in the runs for a potential landfall?

It's probably going to be close enough to the border that northern Florida and southern Georgia will both get some pretty good effects. The northern side of the storm will get the heaviest rain at first so one would think southern Georgia should get a real soaking even if the center moves in over northern Florida. But remember that it is forecast to slow down, and if it does, the rain shield will expand in all directions so all of those areas could get flooding.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

BTW the models have been trending further south so I personally think this is going into northern Florida. Especially because it's turning southward earlier than forecast. Just IMHO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[thundercam96]

@bigjoebastardi Was saying its a tropical storm..... Thats An Opinion....Right?

[NDG]

Current postion of 94L, warmer waters of the gulf stream is just to its north & west, should be tracking over it later tonight, and if it does the WSW to SW track it will track lengthwise it until a possible landfall in NE FL.
70 miles or so to the east of Jacksonville is where the warmest SSTs are located, 82-83 deg F range.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I will be extremely surprised if this isn't designated as a subtropical storm over the next few hours. This is one of the more impressive pre-season disturbances I've tracked over the past two years. 700 mbar and 500 mbar vorticity are that of a fully-developed tropical storm, and winds 850 mbar up are nearly 60 mph! Convection is firing atop the center despite 40-50 knots of wind shear, and the structure of this thing has improved dramatically today.

cycloneye adds S2K Disclaimer

[WeatherGuesser]

@bigjoebastardi Was saying its a tropical storm..... Thats An Opinion....Right?

Don't know, don't care. Or any of the others that people have been quoting over the last dozen pages. The only one that matters is the NHC. Until they say so, it ain't so.

[wxman57]

No doubt Beryl soon. If not 10pm, then definitely in the morning.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Could I have a link to the renumber page?

[cycloneye]

Could I have a link to the renumber page?

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[thundercam96]

Current Model Tracks For Invest 94L By Hurricanecity.com
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/259/plotsystemmodelsnt20129.jpg/

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm curious as to why models don't strengthen 94L at all. Conditions will be favorable for strengthening tomorrow and then again in a few days when the system reemerges off the NC coast after making landfall in Florida/Georgia.

[NDG]

We have a west wind, lol.

Conditions at 41002 as of
(6:50 pm EDT)
2250 GMT on 05/25/2012:
Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 13.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 154 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 72.9 °

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002

[thundercam96]

I'm curious as to why models don't strengthen 94L at all. Conditions will be favorable for strengthening tomorrow and then again in a few days when the system reemerges off the NC coast after making landfall in Florida/Georgia.

Your Right, Alot Of The Models Keep It At 30mph, 22mph Ect... Not Showing It Strengthing

[ozonepete]

I'm curious as to why models don't strengthen 94L at all. Conditions will be favorable for strengthening tomorrow and then again in a few days when the system reemerges off the NC coast after making landfall in Florida/Georgia.

Your Right, Alot Of The Models Keep It At 30mph, 22mph Ect... Not Showing It Strengthing

They don't have enough new data yet. The 00Z run output will be available between 10:30 and 11:30PM tonight. You should see a very different and much more solid forecast at that point.

[cycloneye]

Microwave image (Between 6:30 PM EDT and 7:00 PM EDT) shows convection trying to wrap around.

[wxman57]

I'm curious as to why models don't strengthen 94L at all. Conditions will be favorable for strengthening tomorrow and then again in a few days when the system reemerges off the NC coast after making landfall in Florida/Georgia.

The models consider a HUGE area for potential wind shear which would inhibit strengthening. In this case, the storm will be forming below an upper low in a lower-shear environment. However, just outside the storm will be at least moderate shear. The models are seeing this high shear and assuming it will impact the storm when it probably won't (much). The storm will form within the lesser wind shear area. It'll be a smallish storm.

[ozonepete]

That's the pro talking!

BTW, wxman, how big compared to Alberto do you think?