EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...BUD A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE HEADING FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 105.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BUD WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST
TODAY...BUD COULD STILL BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 12 MILES... 19 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN MANZANILLO.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIRFORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BUD THIS
AFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...AT BEST...WITH A MEASURED MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 80 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GIVEN THE AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. SUBSEQUENT
FLIGHT-LEVEL DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INDICATE DRIER AIR PENETRATING
THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM. A DRY/STABLE AIR MASS INTRUDING FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAVE CERTAINLY INDUCED
RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND BUD COULD WEAKEN BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID DECAY
IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO SEPARATES THE
MID- AND SURFACE-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. BUD IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 72-96 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BLEND THE LGEM AND THE DECAY SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/06. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
AFTER BUD MAKES LANDFALL...THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A DEPRESSION AND
ULTIMATELY A REMNANT LOW.

GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.2N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.9N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/1800Z 20.1N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 20.1N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 27/1800Z 19.9N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z 19.4N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[SeminoleWind]

seems way to far north at 36HR

[tropicwatch]

Looks a little north to me too. We will have to wait and see if the wsw track confirms tonight or tomorrow. If it doesn't, that northern location might be accurate.

Tropicwatch

[Evil Jeremy]

18z GFS kicks off in about 20 minutes. The trend over the last 3 runs has been south, south, and south (in the 72 hour range, adjusted for runs). Lets see if the 18z continues the trend.

[Yellow Evan]

Bud should be onshore within an hour or so.

[Yellow Evan]

I am not surprised on how fast Bud weakened.

[bg1]

The cloud tops have warmed.
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/8366/budsat4.gif

That picture reminds me of Don from last year...

But since this is Mexico, this may still present a significant hazard.

[SeminoleWind]

18Z GFS @ 54HRS

[Evil Jeremy]

A little more north than the 12z, bucking the trend. Question now is, is it the start of a new trend or an anomaly. Eh, I just hope the GFDL decides to run this time.

[SeminoleWind]

12Z on top and 18Z on bottom very little jog to north maybe 25 mile lol who knows,

[Dean4Storms]

Can't make out the pressure there, but this should get sub 1000mb imo with it already at 1004mb.

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS kicks off in about 20 minutes. The trend over the last 3 runs has been south, south, and south (in the 72 hour range, adjusted for runs). Lets see if the 18z continues the trend.

Its the 18z... the 18z always seems to do the opposite of what the 12z shows.

[Steve H.]

It's also the 18Z. What's cool is on the last visible imagery, the convection building up near the rotation is throwing a shadow to the east. I always find that fascinating, and some of those tops are getting pretty high. What I fear here in Central Florida is that if it does make "landfall" in northeast Florida, the west winds we will get south of the system will just spark up the wild fires we have now, and that we may get very little rain!

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Tropical Storm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...BUD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH
DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 105.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF
MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AFTER
THAT...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IS
FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

60 knts? Are you kidding me? More like 40-45 knts to me.

[ocala]

It's also the 18Z. What's cool is on the last visible imagery, the convection building up near the rotation is throwing a shadow to the east. I always find that fascinating, and some of those tops are getting pretty high. What I fear here in Central Florida is that if it does make "landfall" in northeast Florida, the west winds we will get south of the system will just spark up the wild fires we have now, and that we may get very little rain!

I never even thought of that. Good point.
A new fire just kicked up today NE of Gainesville. The northerly winds brought the smoke down this way and we had a real red sunset.

[Yellow Evan]

RBT has it at 55 knts, wow, that is high.

[cycloneye]

RBT has it at 55 knts, wow, that is high.

Here is the link to the Bud file.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[euro6208]

one of many worst looking tropical storm i've ever seen in the western hemisphere.

[Yellow Evan]

one of many worst looking tropical storm i've ever seen in the western hemisphere.

Probably the worst I've seen other than maybe Beatriz/Andres.