ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion by Rob of Crown Weather.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Subtropical Storm Beryl:
Invest 94-L was upgraded to Subtropical Storm Beryl at about 11 pm last night. As of this morning, Beryl is tracking west-southwestward and is gradually becoming more tropical. I fully expect that Beryl will become a purely tropical storm by later today.

Now, where will Beryl track? This question is pretty easy to answer as the storm will be pushed west-southwestward by a strong high pressure that will be positioned across the eastern United States throughout this weekend. Right now it appears that Beryl will come ashore in northern Florida very near Jacksonville on Sunday night. Once Beryl is inland over northern Florida that ridge of high pressure is expected to weaken as a trough of low pressure develops over the western United States. The combination of the weakening high pressure system and the western United States trough of low pressure will cause Beryl to turn back to the east-northeast just off of the coast of Georgia and South Carolina by later Tuesday and into Wednesday. From there, Beryl is likely to be pulled northeastward into the open Atlantic by Thursday.

You may be asking how strong Beryl may get before making landfall tomorrow night in northern Florida. This question is harder to answer as most of the intensity guidance keeps Beryl as a weak to moderate tropical storm with winds no higher than 50 mph. The intensity model guidance, however, may be underestimating how strong Beryl may get. It is expected that the upper level winds over Beryl will be fairly weak and the amount of intensification this storm may undergo will depend on its ability to take advantage of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream from later this afternoon through tonight and into a good part of Sunday. The water temperatures in the Gulf Stream are around 81 Degrees Fahrenheit.

So, I do think that Beryl will transform into a full tropical storm at some point today. I do not think that Beryl will be able to make it to hurricane strength, however, I do think it will strengthen and peak at around 60 mph tonight into Sunday.

The most significant threat from Beryl will be heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches; although this will be extremely welcome relief from the extreme drought that is occurring across northern Florida and southern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast of southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida during Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Wind gusts of up to 50 to 60 mph are possible on Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night. This may bring down some trees and power lines leading to power outages.

Rip currents are likely along Florida’s east coast and along the Georgia coastline. We advise you to stay out of the water this weekend. Additionally, boating is not recommended throughout the Memorial Day weekend from Florida’s east coast northward to the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. 6 to 10 foot seas are likely.

Some steps you may want to take today if you live in southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida: Check for loose objects outside and either secure them or bring them indoors. These objects such as trash cans, bicycles and patio furniture could be tossed around by the expected gusty winds Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

I am closely monitoring the progress of Beryl and I will update all of you as conditions warrant.

Once we are done with Beryl next week, the Atlantic is expected to be quiet for at least the next two to three weeks with little or no tropical activity until about the end of June or the very beginning of July.

[Aric Dunn]

Althought Circulation pattern is much better defined it will need a more convection than what it has if it is to hold together.

[cycloneye]

Althought Circulation pattern is much better defined it will need a more convection than what it has if it is to hold together.

Let's see what happens when it reach the warm gulfstream waters.

[Aric Dunn]

Althought Circulation pattern is much better defined it will need a more convection than what it has if it is to hold together.

Let's see what happens when it reach the warm gulfstream waters.

yep. its crossing the 26 line now. has up to the coast for the most part of at least 26. but later today tonight and tomorrow. will be the time.

[Aric Dunn]

hmm. well according to the nhc forecast. it should not be where its at ( and its actually south of the forecast point for 18z) till 18z so its 4 hours fast and south of the forecast so far and in 4 more hours if this motion continues will be quite a bit farther south than the 18z position.

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

218
NOUS42 KNHC 261400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 26 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-008

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 27/2200Z
       B. AFXXX 0302A BERYL
       C. 27/1945Z
       D. 30.4N 80.5W
       E. 27/2130Z TO 28/0030Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
                      JWP


[Hurricane Andrew]

If it is faster and furthur south, could it perhaps go into the gulf a little bit, then go back east?

[Hurricane Andrew]

That is tommorow's.

[thundercam96]

hmm. well according to the nhc forecast. it should not be where its at ( and its actually south of the forecast point for 18z) till 18z so its 4 hours fast and south of the forecast so far and in 4 more hours if this motion continues will be quite a bit farther south than the 18z position.

Keeps This Up It Could Be Coming Closer To Central Florida ( Daytona, Palm Coast, St. Augustine)?

[GTStorm]

hmm. well according to the nhc forecast. it should not be where its at ( and its actually south of the forecast point for 18z) till 18z so its 4 hours fast and south of the forecast so far and in 4 more hours if this motion continues will be quite a bit farther south than the 18z position.

Was hoping for some much needed rain from this system in savannah. Sigh. Looks like the trend is for beryl track to keep adjusting southward. Im going to predict titusville.
Oh well, time to run the sprinklers. Again.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Beryl's structure has continued to improve overnight, yet it remains void of convection. This should change as we head throughout today and it begins to cross over 26 °C, 27 °C, and eventually 28 °C Sea Surface Temperatures.

[Aric Dunn]

To be honest the last few frames look even more due south than anything. maybe just a wobble or maybe the ridging is stronger positioned differently than the models have been seeing.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


although the atmosphere is not static. steering somewhat suggest at least in the short term a more southerly component.

[cycloneye]

There are any remarks about cancellation of this afternoon's flight,so it will go.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Guys, look at the shear. (Or lack thereof)
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

kind of hard to deny its not moving much in the way of westerly atm.... every new frame looks more and more almost due south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

turn on the lat and lon.

[ronjon]

hmm. well according to the nhc forecast. it should not be where its at ( and its actually south of the forecast point for 18z) till 18z so its 4 hours fast and south of the forecast so far and in 4 more hours if this motion continues will be quite a bit farther south than the 18z position.

Was hoping for some much needed rain from this system in savannah. Sigh. Looks like the trend is for beryl track to keep adjusting southward. Im going to predict titusville.
Oh well, time to run the sprinklers. Again.

GT I wouldn't give up hope. There will be a rather large rain shield extending far from the center - you should see some rain where you are.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...BERYL TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 76.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF BERYL WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN


SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

BERYL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF BERYL.

BERYL HAS TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS MOVING AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE
THAN EARLIER...NOW AT ABOUT 8 KT. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BERYL MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND BRINGS THE
CENTER OF BERYL TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA COASTLINE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL THE MODELS BECOME QUITE
DIVERGENT...HOWEVER...AND DIFFER ON HOW FAR INLAND THE CYCLONE GETS
BEFORE IT RECURVES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND
HWRF BRING BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES INLAND BEFORE IT REVERSES
ITS COURSE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS RECURVATURE VERY
NEAR THE COAST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF BERYL IN THE MODELS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH BLENDS THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL AND THEN VERY NEAR THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS ENTANGLED WITH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND BERYL
EVOLVING INTO A FULLY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS BERYL WILL BE OVER THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS BY THEN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 31.6N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 31.1N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 30.5N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 30.4N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 30.5N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 31.2N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 32.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 31/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 76.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[Hurricane Andrew]

Dave!!

[Aric Dunn]

if it does go farther south than Jax. near st aug then it wont have to worry about too much of the cooler shelf water. it all 26 up to the coast. from st aug south.