ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

How long is Recon supposed to stay up there?

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure on second pass=997.9 mbs round it to 998 mbs.

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 262219
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 26 20120526
221100 3122N 07653W 9698 00271 0004 +215 //// 044040 041 033 002 05
221130 3121N 07652W 9699 00264 9999 +215 //// 046040 040 030 001 01
221200 3119N 07650W 9703 00257 9994 +219 +218 048039 041 032 000 00
221230 3118N 07649W 9696 00260 9990 +220 //// 045034 035 031 001 01
221300 3117N 07648W 9703 00252 9987 +219 //// 044028 030 025 003 01
221330 3116N 07647W 9699 00251 9984 +219 //// 046023 024 019 002 01
221400 3115N 07645W 9698 00251 9980 +220 //// 056014 017 015 003 05
221430 3114N 07644W 9702 00247 9979 +220 //// 127005 007 006 004 05
221500 3113N 07643W 9712 00237 9981 +220 //// 214006 008 004 003 05
221530 3111N 07642W 9701 00253 9985 +219 //// 229010 012 003 002 01
221600 3110N 07641W 9699 00259 9990 +215 //// 236014 017 018 005 01
221630 3109N 07640W 9703 00259 9997 +200 //// 233021 022 030 010 05
221700 3108N 07639W 9703 00263 0000 +212 //// 233019 020 016 002 01
221730 3107N 07637W 9701 00267 0004 +211 //// 233019 020 016 003 01
221800 3106N 07636W 9701 00271 0009 +205 //// 233023 025 019 003 01
221830 3105N 07635W 9702 00272 0012 +205 //// 233025 028 020 004 01
221900 3103N 07634W 9702 00276 0017 +200 //// 233028 028 023 005 01
221930 3102N 07632W 9703 00278 0020 +199 //// 227029 029 026 003 01
222000 3101N 07631W 9691 00292 0024 +205 +205 228030 031 021 005 00
222030 3100N 07630W 9709 00278 0026 +210 +204 228028 029 022 007 00
$$
;

[ocala]

I wonder how far south of Jacksonville Beryl will cross the coast... I wouldnt be shocked to see a landfall close to Daytona Beach

Two days out the NHC is pretty good. With Daytona being about 80 miles south what makes you think it could be that far south?
I actually hope you are right because I am due west of Daytona.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure so far=997.9 and it rounds to 998 mbs. First pass had as lowest 999.8 mbs rounding to 1000 mbs.

[MGC]

Beryl's organization has improved quite a bit since this morning with convection now firing near its center. I would expect this trend to continue as Beryl moves towards the gulf stream. I expect the cyclone should transition to fully tropical prior to landfall. It is quite possible Beryl could become a 60-65mph TS.....MGC


Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ocala]

For those of you that use the NASA site for sat data try this program.
http://www.nexrad3.com/GhccSat.html
It takes the data from that site and lets you customize it to your liking.
The program has been around for a while and sometimes it does lock up but it is free so you don't have anything to lose.
Currently watching a vis of Beryl from from first light till now.
OK, back to Beryl.

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 262229
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 27 20120526
222100 3059N 07628W 9701 00287 0029 +205 //// 225027 027 025 006 01
222130 3058N 07627W 9701 00290 0032 +205 //// 230029 030 027 007 01
222200 3057N 07626W 9698 00295 0035 +198 //// 229031 033 030 006 01
222230 3056N 07625W 9703 00293 0038 +197 //// 223032 034 029 006 01
222300 3055N 07623W 9700 00297 0040 +199 //// 228030 031 030 006 01
222330 3054N 07622W 9701 00300 0043 +197 //// 232028 029 027 009 01
222400 3052N 07621W 9703 00299 0046 +194 //// 235026 027 027 008 01
222430 3051N 07619W 9691 00318 0054 +200 //// 234030 031 022 004 01
222500 3050N 07618W 9705 00310 0058 +191 //// 234032 034 030 011 05
222530 3049N 07616W 9711 00306 0059 +199 //// 232032 033 027 007 01
222600 3047N 07615W 9700 00319 0062 +210 +208 233032 032 023 003 00
222630 3046N 07613W 9704 00316 0064 +210 +207 233032 033 024 001 00
222700 3045N 07612W 9703 00319 0066 +210 +207 230032 032 024 001 00
222730 3044N 07610W 9704 00320 0068 +209 +206 228033 033 021 004 00
222800 3042N 07609W 9703 00323 0071 +205 //// 226033 034 024 004 01
222830 3041N 07608W 9701 00327 0074 +205 //// 227033 033 025 004 01
222900 3040N 07606W 9704 00328 0077 +202 //// 227033 033 025 003 01
222930 3039N 07605W 9705 00327 0079 +204 //// 228033 033 022 004 01
223000 3037N 07603W 9703 00333 0083 +198 //// 224032 033 025 004 01
223030 3036N 07602W 9703 00334 0085 +199 //// 220031 032 023 005 01

[Bocadude85]

I wonder how far south of Jacksonville Beryl will cross the coast... I wouldnt be shocked to see a landfall close to Daytona Beach

Two days out the NHC is pretty good. With Daytona being about 80 miles south what makes you think it could be that far south?
I actually hope you are right because I am due west of Daytona.

Southwest moving storms can be a little harder to predict. The NHC track error at 48hours in 2011 was 70 miles.

[brunota2003]

Looking at the recon data, it does have a warm core. Temps in the center were 23C and outside the center temps were 21C...so it is definitely close to fully transitioning.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is the evolution of Beryl today:

At 15:15Z:


And at 22:15Z:


Looking more tropical now.

[wxman57]

Savannah should get a good bit of rain out of Beryl. It'll stall south of there and wait to be picked up by an approaching trof. Plenty of time for well-needed rainfall across the southeast. As for what this means for the season - not much. Neither Alberto nor Beryl was formed from tropical waves. Mostly leftover frontal boundaries. Once these are out of the picture in a few weeks such development will cease and we'll see how the tropics look after then. I still think a sub-10 season is possible.

Due to what?

Because I have 9/4/2 in the office hurricane pool!

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 262239
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 28 20120526
223100 3035N 07600W 9703 00336 0087 +200 +199 216029 030 022 003 00
223130 3034N 07559W 9706 00337 0088 +201 //// 222031 032 028 003 01
223200 3032N 07557W 9703 00339 0090 +205 +197 218031 032 026 003 00
223230 3031N 07556W 9703 00340 0091 +205 +195 218030 030 029 001 00
223300 3030N 07554W 9701 00341 0092 +205 +196 221026 028 027 004 00
223330 3029N 07553W 9703 00343 0094 +197 +188 220026 027 025 009 00
223400 3027N 07552W 9705 00342 //// +180 //// 215029 031 030 009 01
223430 3026N 07550W 9701 00346 //// +180 //// 214029 030 031 011 01
223500 3025N 07549W 9701 00345 //// +190 //// 213025 026 027 011 01
223530 3024N 07547W 9701 00350 0099 +203 //// 206030 034 024 007 01
223600 3022N 07546W 9694 00361 0104 +206 //// 210034 036 029 004 01
223630 3021N 07544W 9707 00355 0112 +207 +201 214035 035 028 003 00
223700 3020N 07543W 9705 00360 0115 +210 +197 216034 035 028 003 00
223730 3018N 07541W 9705 00360 0117 +212 +190 218034 034 028 002 00
223800 3017N 07539W 9712 00356 0117 +217 +186 215032 033 028 002 00
223830 3015N 07538W 9710 00360 0120 +217 +182 215033 034 028 002 00
223900 3014N 07536W 9708 00365 0121 +211 +190 215034 035 028 003 00
223930 3012N 07534W 9707 00365 0124 +210 +187 217035 035 027 004 00
224000 3011N 07533W 9707 00365 0124 +212 +188 214036 036 025 004 00
224030 3009N 07531W 9708 00365 0124 +215 +190 213035 035 021 004 00

[weatherSnoop]

URNT12 KNHC 262239
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 26/22:14:40Z
B. 31 deg 14 min N
076 deg 44 min W
C. NA
D. 44 kt
E. 311 deg 21 nm
F. 037 deg 52 kt
G. 311 deg 34 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 20 C / 367 m
J. 22 C / 365 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0102A BERYL OB 09
MAX FL WIND 55 KT NE QUAD 20:55:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 35 KT SE QUAD 22:36:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
SPIRAL BANDING

[ozonepete]

off topic but LOL!

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,lets return to the topic on hand,thank you.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rb.html


will this come close to being a hurricane?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rb.html


will this come close to being a hurricane?

It may come close, yes.

Will it actually attain hurricane status? Probably not.

[FutureEM]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rb.html


will this come close to being a hurricane?

Isn't it still a bit too shallow?