ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[sponger]

Looks like forecast is right at Jacksonville. Not every day you see North Florida down the middle 24 hours out. We could easily see the strongest winds since 2004 Jeane and Francis. I for one am looking forward to it.

[JonathanBelles]

The latest on Subtropical Storm Beryl and its impacts on the southeast. Also, I've included the story of a friend that everyone should read. She was tossed around inside of a tornado doing research with Josh Wurman, and then went on to help a citizen who lost her home by the tornado. A story of true heroism in my mind:

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... row-night/

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Convection is increasing on all sides of Beryl as the atmosphere surrounding the system becomes increasingly moist. Should continue to see the subtropical to tropical transition overnight with convection firing, and Beryl should be tropical tomorrow morning.

[ozonepete]

Definitely agree with you. Although I don't think this will ever get very well organized (too late now). I could see it get a really nice CDO tomorrow just before landfall as it goes over the warmest water. That could allow it to get up to a high end TS just before landfall. It all pretty much hinges on whether that ULL starts to weaken or not. If it doesn't, Beryl will be more like a stacked, dying mid-latitude cyclone. Still if it stalls out it could become a prodigious rainmaker. Let's hope so.

[cycloneye]

Looks like it has picked some speed.

[ozonepete]

And have to say symmetry is excellent. That counts for a lot since the better the symmetry the easier it is for winds to increase and thunderstorms to grow. Certainly points to increasing move towards totally tropical.

[northjaxpro]

Jax long range radar showing Beryl's outer rain bands on the western edge of the center of circulation.

[crimi481]

Question:
Is this the time of year when Satallite pics are down for few hours (after midnight)?
If so - what time are they down?

[thetruesms]

Desperately praying for rain here in Gainesville. Wildfires started again earlier this week, and the last thing we need is a windy day with no rain in sight. I'm not one to hope for tropical storms or hurricanes, but right now, I think we'll take anything.

We'd been very lucky this year to have rain come just often enough to buy a little more time without things getting really bad. The most active we've been this year has been just shy of 150 active fires. Right about now is when the time bought by the last rains are running out and things are picking up again.

So, Beryl, if you're out there listening, you're not allowed to pull a Don

Discussion from Dr. Jeff Masters earlier today doesn't sound too optimistic about this being a drought-buster. That said, even a few inches of rain would at least lower the immeidate fire threat in your area...

There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2105

I know Dr. Masters is only going back to the beginning of the Water Year (10/01 - a pretty nice date, I might add) because that's as far back as the AHPS maps go, but it's a much longer problem than that. Things have been pretty dry for most of the state since the middle of 2010. There are places that are running ~30 inches below normal since that time.

[AJC3]

Question:
Is this the time of year when Satallite pics are down for few hours (after midnight)?
If so - what time are they down?

No. The GOES-E Spring eclipse period ended on 4/22. The Fall eclipse period begins some time in late August.

You can find more info here...

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Operations/GOES/eclipse.html

[crimi481]

Thanks for the info!

[jdray]

Wow, haven't seen Accuweather forecasts with high winds for my area in a while lol. Would be interesting if this does pan out.

NE at 40 mph
Gusts: 73 mph
General forecast for tomorrow. Hourly has my area in Clay County as 50+ sustained for a few hours lol. (yeah, not so sure about that).

NWS has my area as:
39+ with 50+ gusts.

Thats not a bad wind considering I am inland in Clay County.

[ozonepete]

Go with the NWS. They have a lot better track record.

[jdray]

:uarrow: Go with the NWS. They have a lot better track record.

Yup, accuweather sometimes is there, but under 24 hours, NWS is king.
Either way, taking the dogs outside sunday night/monday morning might be a challenge lol

[ozonepete]

That's because no one knows your local weather better than you r local met. This will become important as Beryl moves in.

[bamajammer4eva]

Location of nearest rainband on radar + 10PM position

[MGC]

On the shortwave IR loop it looks as if Beryl has been tracking just south of due west the past couple of hours. It is wobbling too....MGC

[crimi481]

Any handle yet - on odds of it making it to GOM?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Any handle yet - on odds of it making it to GOM?

1000-1?

[crimi481]

OK - I will put $2.00 on that Horse...Beryl