ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[jdray]

That's because no one knows your local weather better than you r local met. This will become important as Beryl moves in.

Yeah, we have one of the best of all times here in Jax working for Channel 4. George Winterling.
Waiting on his updated blog tomorrow. He's getting way up here in age (80), and can't live weather like he used to.
He created the Heat Index scale (originally humiture) that the NWS uses. (he based on some previous met pioneers)
50 years of weather broadcasting here in Jax, holding AMS membership for almost 50 years (redesigned the seal of approval in 1973)


When he says to worry, we worry. His blog early today was simple, rain, and we've had worse nor'easters lol.

[bamajammer4eva]

NWS Melbourne Radar images between 1248 EDT and 243 AM EDT *My times in the graphic were CDT*-Convection is increasing on the SW Side in the form of bands.

[northjaxpro]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 78.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN TURN NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[northjaxpro]

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS
IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE
CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/09...AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
TURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE
WESTWARD TURN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THEN SLOW DOWN
AFTER LANDFALL AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD BERYL
WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE GFS
AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SITUATED FARTHEST EAST. AT 36
AND 48 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...BUT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY BERYL WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...LYING
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT
DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 30.5N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 30.4N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 30.5N 81.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1800Z 30.8N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0600Z 31.2N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 33.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 01/0600Z 40.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[Recurve]

Here's a link to George Winterling's blog:

http://winterlingwatch.wordpress.com/

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, great to hear from George Winterling, former chief met at WJXT TV-4 for nearly 50 years. He is still providing analysis to WJXT TV-4 both with the station and with his blog even in retirement. Folks around these parts, Winterling is absolutely legendary. I have met him a few times and he is a really great guy. I wouldn't be surprised he comes into the news station later today or tonight to give his assessment of Beryl.

[northjaxpro]

[Nimbus]

All the convection seems to be on the eastern side of the circulation. Still must be some dry shear off the land, good.

[senorpepr]

06Z GFS Precip accumulation through 00Z Friday. 4-6" still forecast for parts of NE Florida:

[ocala]

Just waking up I was hoping to see much more convection around the center. Unfortunately doesn't look like that is going to happen. This is one of the driest storms I have seen in a while.
I know everyone keeps saying that the beneficial rains will come but at this point it looks more like a breezy period with occasional rain.
I hope I'm wrong and you guys are right.

[cycloneye]

Plane is decending.

URNT15 KNHC 271034
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 11 20120527
102600 3115N 08143W 4099 07353 0341 -175 -495 035040 040 /// /// 03
102630 3117N 08141W 4098 07354 0342 -175 -498 034040 040 /// /// 03
102700 3119N 08139W 4099 07352 0341 -175 -500 037041 041 /// /// 03
102730 3120N 08137W 4101 07347 0340 -175 -496 040039 041 /// /// 03
102800 3120N 08134W 4098 07353 0341 -175 -433 035036 037 /// /// 03
102830 3120N 08132W 4099 07350 0340 -174 -424 032035 036 /// /// 03
102900 3120N 08129W 4098 07350 0339 -175 -394 036033 035 /// /// 03
102930 3120N 08126W 4099 07348 0338 -175 -306 041033 034 /// /// 03
103000 3120N 08124W 4098 07349 0337 -175 -296 040033 034 /// /// 03
103030 3120N 08121W 4098 07349 0337 -175 -291 040034 034 /// /// 03
103100 3120N 08118W 4099 07345 0336 -176 -281 039034 035 116 000 03
103130 3120N 08115W 4099 07345 0336 -177 -266 039035 035 034 000 00
103200 3120N 08113W 4099 07347 0335 -176 -260 038035 036 029 000 03
103230 3120N 08110W 4101 07339 0332 -174 -266 037037 037 /// /// 03
103300 3122N 08109W 4099 07344 0335 -175 -270 039038 038 030 000 00
103330 3124N 08108W 4099 07345 0335 -175 -267 039037 038 029 000 00
103400 3126N 08107W 4100 07344 0335 -175 -262 040039 040 029 000 00
103430 3128N 08106W 4105 07341 0340 -174 -254 040039 040 030 000 03
103500 3130N 08105W 4330 06956 0331 -153 -226 040041 042 /// /// 03
103530 3132N 08104W 4552 06584 0318 -133 -201 041043 044 /// /// 03

[cycloneye]

The early morning mission is now getting closer to Beryl.

[cycloneye]

Now at operational altitud.

URNT15 KNHC 271044
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 12 20120527
103600 3134N 08103W 4805 06178 0305 -107 -173 048043 044 /// /// 03
103630 3136N 08102W 5119 05679 0281 -073 -170 051043 045 /// /// 03
103700 3138N 08101W 5477 05153 0258 -041 -283 049036 040 /// /// 03
103730 3140N 08100W 5908 04553 0169 -010 -235 057037 039 /// /// 03
103800 3142N 08059W 6298 04043 0176 +021 -277 058038 039 /// /// 03
103830 3144N 08058W 6686 03572 0179 +046 -147 053034 036 /// /// 03
103900 3146N 08057W 7080 03101 0181 +073 -158 055032 033 /// /// 03
103930 3148N 08056W 7494 02629 0182 +098 -026 058030 032 /// /// 03
104000 3150N 08055W 7910 02147 0175 +125 -004 061029 030 /// /// 03
104030 3152N 08054W 8294 01746 0166 +142 +101 066031 032 /// /// 03
104100 3154N 08053W 8645 01394 0172 +149 +120 070034 035 /// /// 03
104130 3156N 08052W 8959 01089 0172 +161 +141 065035 035 /// /// 03
104200 3158N 08051W 9271 00796 0170 +177 +162 060034 035 /// /// 03
104230 3159N 08050W 9578 00514 0168 +187 +176 046032 035 /// /// 03
104300 3201N 08049W 9808 00300 0157 +197 +184 029026 029 031 000 03
104330 3202N 08048W 9816 00284 0145 +200 +188 024027 030 031 000 03
104400 3201N 08047W 9813 00285 0144 +201 +188 024031 032 028 001 00
104430 3200N 08045W 9799 00300 0143 +200 +187 021030 031 029 001 00
104500 3159N 08044W 9788 00307 0143 +199 +187 021032 032 028 000 00
104530 3158N 08042W 9787 00308 0142 +199 +187 020031 033 027 002 00
$$

[northjaxpro]

Just waking up I was hoping to see much more convection around the center. Unfortunately doesn't look like that is going to happen. This is one of the driest storms I have seen in a while.
I know everyone keeps saying that the beneficial rains will come but at this point it looks more like a breezy period with occasional rain.
I hope I'm wrong and you guys are right.

Lots of continental dry air was entrained into the cyclone. It is a lopsided cyclone with most of the convection being east and northeast and dry air eroding the western quadrant of the cyclone. It does not appear Beryl will fully transition to tropical status unless she pulls a quick surprise with one last convective burst around the center of circulation during today before landfall.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271054
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 13 20120527
104600 3157N 08041W 9804 00292 0142 +201 +187 020031 032 026 002 00
104630 3156N 08039W 9797 00299 0140 +201 +188 019031 032 028 001 00
104700 3155N 08038W 9801 00294 0139 +203 +188 020032 033 028 000 00
104730 3154N 08037W 9797 00294 0138 +203 +188 019033 034 028 001 00
104800 3153N 08035W 9803 00292 0138 +203 +190 020033 034 027 000 00
104830 3151N 08034W 9791 00300 0137 +203 +191 021032 033 027 001 00
104900 3150N 08032W 9794 00299 0137 +203 +191 019035 036 028 000 00
104930 3149N 08031W 9793 00299 0135 +202 +192 019035 036 027 001 00
105000 3148N 08030W 9794 00296 0134 +204 +192 022036 037 028 000 00
105030 3147N 08028W 9791 00296 0133 +202 +193 021035 036 026 002 00
105100 3146N 08027W 9793 00295 0131 +204 +195 024037 037 026 001 00
105130 3145N 08026W 9792 00295 0130 +203 +197 025036 037 027 001 00
105200 3144N 08024W 9793 00294 0130 +205 +198 026037 038 026 001 00
105230 3143N 08023W 9791 00295 0130 +205 +199 025039 039 029 001 00
105300 3141N 08021W 9796 00290 0129 +207 +199 025039 040 030 003 00
105330 3140N 08020W 9792 00292 0128 +205 +200 021039 040 031 002 00
105400 3139N 08019W 9779 00302 0127 +205 +199 025040 040 030 000 00
105430 3138N 08017W 9787 00294 0126 +205 +199 025040 041 030 001 00
105500 3137N 08016W 9789 00292 0124 +206 +199 028039 040 031 000 00
105530 3136N 08015W 9782 00296 0123 +205 +200 026038 039 031 001 00
$$

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271104
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 14 20120527
105600 3135N 08013W 9785 00295 0123 +208 +199 027038 039 030 003 00
105630 3134N 08012W 9783 00295 0122 +208 +200 027038 039 030 002 00
105700 3133N 08010W 9781 00297 0121 +210 +199 029038 039 031 001 00
105730 3131N 08009W 9784 00292 0119 +210 +199 032038 040 031 000 00
105800 3130N 08008W 9782 00292 0119 +210 +200 031036 037 028 000 00
105830 3129N 08006W 9782 00294 0117 +212 +200 031035 036 028 003 00
105900 3128N 08005W 9782 00294 0117 +213 +199 030033 034 028 000 00
105930 3127N 08004W 9776 00300 0117 +214 +196 032036 039 028 000 00
110000 3126N 08002W 9784 00291 0116 +215 +191 036038 039 030 003 00
110030 3125N 08001W 9757 00311 0112 +214 +187 037037 038 032 000 00
110100 3124N 08000W 9744 00320 0109 +215 +178 041037 037 032 001 00
110130 3123N 07959W 9748 00313 0105 +215 +182 043036 036 031 001 00
110200 3122N 07957W 9750 00309 0102 +214 +185 041035 036 031 001 00
110230 3121N 07956W 9747 00312 0102 +214 +186 039036 037 030 001 00
110300 3120N 07955W 9749 00308 0100 +214 +189 040036 037 032 000 00
110330 3118N 07953W 9747 00309 0099 +215 +189 039036 037 030 002 00
110400 3117N 07952W 9746 00307 0097 +214 +191 037036 038 032 001 00
110430 3116N 07951W 9752 00301 0096 +215 +191 037038 040 033 002 00
110500 3115N 07949W 9750 00302 0094 +214 +192 039038 039 033 001 00
110530 3114N 07948W 9746 00305 0094 +215 +192 038038 039 034 001 00
$$

[cycloneye]

They are flying around the altitud of 1000 feet.

[cycloneye]

Next set will reach the center.

URNT15 KNHC 271114
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 15 20120527
110600 3113N 07947W 9750 00300 0091 +215 +191 039040 041 036 002 00
110630 3112N 07946W 9746 00302 0090 +215 +190 039040 040 038 001 00
110700 3111N 07944W 9746 00300 0087 +216 +191 039042 043 038 001 00
110730 3110N 07943W 9748 00300 0087 +216 +195 038039 041 039 002 00
110800 3109N 07942W 9748 00295 0085 +220 +193 039040 042 041 000 00
110830 3108N 07940W 9746 00297 0084 +220 +189 041041 042 040 002 00
110900 3107N 07939W 9742 00297 0081 +219 +189 041042 044 040 003 00
110930 3106N 07938W 9745 00295 0079 +220 +189 045042 044 039 004 00
111000 3105N 07937W 9746 00292 0077 +220 +190 044043 044 044 001 00
111030 3104N 07935W 9747 00289 0074 +220 +191 045043 046 043 002 00
111100 3102N 07934W 9759 00280 0076 +207 +198 042045 049 041 003 03
111130 3101N 07933W 9733 00294 0072 +200 +200 042046 047 042 003 01
111200 3059N 07933W 9724 00305 0070 +211 +200 046045 047 043 003 00
111230 3058N 07932W 9722 00302 0067 +209 +201 046044 047 040 005 00
111300 3057N 07931W 9715 00308 0065 +213 +198 046046 047 042 002 00
111330 3056N 07930W 9719 00301 0062 +215 +197 051047 049 041 003 00
111400 3055N 07928W 9722 00299 0059 +217 +197 052047 049 047 003 00
111430 3054N 07927W 9716 00302 0058 +216 +195 056048 051 043 003 00
111500 3053N 07926W 9722 00291 0055 +216 +194 055047 050 042 001 00
111530 3051N 07925W 9717 00295 0053 +208 +199 054047 049 042 004 00
$$

[cycloneye]

This is a good reading at flight level not rain contaminated:

From 56° at 48 knots
(From between the NE and ENE at ~ 55.2 mph)

[northjaxpro]

Here is the first visible satellite image of the day of Beryl.