ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Almost at center.

URNT15 KNHC 271124
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 16 20120527
111600 3050N 07924W 9684 00322 0052 +190 +190 058049 054 044 006 05
111630 3049N 07923W 9692 00316 0049 +203 +198 059049 051 044 001 00
111700 3048N 07922W 9696 00305 0046 +200 +199 057048 050 043 003 00
111730 3047N 07921W 9696 00305 0042 +203 +200 056047 050 040 004 00
111800 3045N 07920W 9699 00300 0039 +204 +202 054046 047 038 002 00
111830 3044N 07919W 9706 00290 0037 +207 +203 051043 045 037 002 00
111900 3043N 07918W 9700 00291 0034 +209 +203 051038 042 037 001 00
111930 3042N 07917W 9693 00299 0032 +210 +202 055036 038 036 002 00
112000 3041N 07916W 9692 00297 0029 +210 +202 056035 036 035 002 00
112030 3039N 07915W 9692 00295 0026 +210 +202 053034 035 034 002 00
112100 3038N 07914W 9687 00297 0024 +210 +204 051035 035 033 002 00
112130 3037N 07913W 9683 00301 0022 +210 +206 050035 036 033 002 00
112200 3036N 07912W 9682 00297 0019 +211 +205 050035 036 033 002 00
112230 3034N 07911W 9679 00296 0014 +214 +202 051034 035 033 001 00
112300 3033N 07910W 9677 00295 0011 +210 +205 047029 032 031 002 00
112330 3032N 07908W 9670 00300 0007 +213 +201 047026 027 031 001 00
112400 3031N 07907W 9668 00300 0006 +211 +202 042023 026 029 002 00
112430 3030N 07906W 9664 00301 0004 +211 +201 043023 023 027 002 00
112500 3029N 07905W 9661 00302 0004 +210 +203 045021 023 027 001 00
112530 3027N 07904W 9664 00298 0002 +210 +203 048019 021 027 001 00
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

Yep cycloneye that is a solid reading.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure=998.0 mbs

URNT15 KNHC 271134
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 17 20120527
112600 3026N 07902W 9664 00296 9999 +213 +201 050018 018 026 001 00
112630 3025N 07901W 9655 00303 9997 +213 +200 046018 018 024 001 00
112700 3024N 07900W 9658 00298 9995 +214 +205 048019 019 024 002 00
112730 3023N 07859W 9661 00295 9993 +215 +209 039020 022 023 003 00
112800 3022N 07857W 9654 00300 9991 +215 +209 035017 019 024 002 00
112830 3021N 07856W 9655 00296 9989 +216 +205 038017 018 024 003 00
112900 3020N 07855W 9652 00297 9987 +215 +207 032015 017 023 002 00
112930 3019N 07853W 9649 00297 9985 +215 +206 030012 014 020 002 00
113000 3018N 07852W 9647 00296 9982 +215 +205 024010 011 021 001 00
113030 3017N 07850W 9650 00294 9980 +217 +207 004006 009 019 001 00
113100 3016N 07849W 9647 002959980 9980 +215 +208 287001 005 018 001 00
113130 3015N 07847W 9654 00290 9981 +214 +210 223006 008 018 002 00
113200 3014N 07846W 9665 00283 9984 +215 +209 209010 011 020 002 00
113230 3013N 07845W 9658 00290 9985 +214 +206 215014 016 021 001 00
113300 3012N 07843W 9646 00305 9989 +213 +206 212017 018 027 004 00
113330 3011N 07842W 9647 00307 9993 +215 +202 214019 019 023 001 00
113400 3010N 07841W 9654 00305 9996 +212 +203 207019 019 021 002 00
113430 3009N 07840W 9656 00303 9998 +214 +202 209020 021 024 003 00
113500 3008N 07839W 9654 00307 0001 +212 +204 211021 022 028 004 00
113530 3007N 07838W 9654 00308 0003 +212 +204 209023 023 025 001 00
$$
;

[Emmett_Brown]

Convection increasing east of the center, looks like Beryl slowly becoming more tropical, but as many have stated, she's running out of real estate. It will be interesting to see what recon finds as she is filling in a bit over the past few frames.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure found on first pass was 998.0mbs,the same as last night.

[cycloneye]

998.0 mbs the lowest pressure.

Who wants to continue posting the HDOBs?

[Batt2fd]

From Dr. Peter Ray (FSU)

Still 5 days until the official start of the 2012 Hurricane season and we have used up two perfectly good names. Monday, please pause to remember ALL those who we have lost, particularly the sons, fathers, brothers, husbands, who have died so that we might picnic, swim, and enjoy family and friends. Those lost leave a huge hole in the world and even more so in their families, which will never be the same. All losses, whatever the cause, are profound, personal, and lasting.

FORECAST: If you live in NE Florida or SE Georgia, you will likely get your lawn watered sometime the next 2 days.
Further up the Atlantic coast through North Carolina, there will be coastal rain with moderately high surf and potentially dangerous rip tides. Winds will be similar to that of locally strong thunderstorms. Rain - not to much west of Tallahassee and rain most likely late Monday.

DISCUSSION: Beryl, and Alberto, were hardly the definition of a Tropical Storm, but do share some of the characteristics. Beryl is off the Jacksonville coast and will slowly move inland, mainly somewhat windy and with some rain. Beryl will move west just north of I-10 until just east of Lake City where it will abruptly move to the NE and head up the coast where it will re-intensify some, but never become a classical Tropical Storm or hurricane.
Elevated surf levels, rip tides and coastal rain will accompany Beryl through Wednesday night up through North Carolina.

[tolakram]

Rapid scan on this morning, live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

[tolakram]

I can for a little while

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271144
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 18 20120527
113600 3006N 07836W 9649 00318 0007 +213 +206 208024 025 028 003 00
113630 3005N 07835W 9655 00316 0011 +212 +204 207025 025 033 002 00
113700 3004N 07834W 9662 00308 0010 +209 +204 207029 032 038 008 00
113730 3003N 07833W 9509 00446 0012 +190 +190 204032 035 040 006 01
113800 3002N 07831W 9353 00597 0021 +189 +174 206035 037 039 003 00
113830 3001N 07830W 9210 00735 0029 +174 +171 203035 036 036 007 00
113900 3000N 07829W 9024 00914 0034 +160 +160 199035 036 039 005 01
113930 2959N 07828W 8853 01079 0032 +163 +158 202035 037 039 004 00
114000 2957N 07827W 8670 01260 0038 +150 +150 205032 036 041 009 01
114030 2956N 07826W 8492 01440 0049 +130 +130 208035 038 041 009 01
114100 2955N 07825W 8440 01498 0044 +143 +135 206036 038 037 006 00
114130 2954N 07823W 8442 01495 0053 +130 +130 216040 041 038 008 01
114200 2953N 07822W 8442 01500 0062 +120 +120 221041 042 037 009 01
114230 2952N 07820W 8432 01515 0064 +120 +120 214040 042 038 010 01
114300 2952N 07820W 8432 01515 0061 +130 +130 213043 043 035 008 01
114330 2950N 07818W 8440 01509 0061 +130 +130 215039 043 036 006 01
114400 2949N 07817W 8442 01510 0070 +130 +130 214038 040 039 007 01
114430 2948N 07816W 8441 01512 0065 +138 +135 212037 038 041 006 00
114500 2947N 07814W 8440 01515 0068 +137 +128 211036 038 048 011 00
114530 2946N 07813W 8431 01524 0080 +120 +120 206033 035 064 045 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[jinftl]

Wind field is quite small...especially on the southwest side of the system. Barring any expansion of the wind field (whereas the trend has actually been for the NHC to reduce it since yesterday) areas on the southern end of the t.s. warning may just see t.s. force gusts - if that.

The NHC's forecast probability of Daytona Beach receiving sustained t.s. winds of 39mph went down to 24% on the 5am update compared to 41% on the 11pm advisory last night.
(link to Wind Speed Probability archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/re ... 3402.shtml?)

[tolakram]

[GTStorm]

Just waking up I was hoping to see much more convection around the center. Unfortunately doesn't look like that is going to happen. This is one of the driest storms I have seen in a while.
I know everyone keeps saying that the beneficial rains will come but at this point it looks more like a breezy period with occasional rain.
I hope I'm wrong and you guys are right.

I'm with ya. Looks like the first rain bands are already lining up....to just miss savannah. Maybe an inch forecast here, seems we usually get about half of what is forecasted. Have to hope that there's enough left in the depression supposed to move back over, but not holding my breath. Would love for a breezy 3-4 inches. We'll see.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271154
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 19 20120527
114600 2944N 07812W 8444 01511 //// +119 //// 204042 044 064 052 01
114630 2943N 07811W 8446 01516 //// +113 //// 204042 047 048 021 01
114700 2942N 07810W 8441 01520 //// +113 //// 198041 042 048 019 01
114730 2941N 07808W 8440 01524 0091 +120 +120 204040 040 043 013 01
114800 2940N 07807W 8443 01522 0084 +130 +130 199042 042 042 020 01
114830 2939N 07806W 8440 01529 0089 +130 +130 198038 042 038 010 01
114900 2938N 07805W 8442 01528 0089 +130 +130 199038 038 035 009 01
114930 2937N 07804W 8442 01530 0088 +138 +130 197038 038 034 007 00
115000 2936N 07803W 8443 01532 0091 +137 +125 196037 037 034 007 00
115030 2935N 07801W 8442 01535 0092 +139 +123 197035 036 034 006 00
115100 2934N 07800W 8440 01539 0097 +135 +121 199036 037 033 007 00
115130 2933N 07759W 8443 01537 0096 +139 +120 197036 038 033 006 00
115200 2932N 07758W 8442 01539 0096 +142 +113 198034 034 032 005 00
115230 2931N 07757W 8442 01540 0099 +140 +115 198033 034 031 003 00
115300 2930N 07755W 8440 01544 0102 +136 +120 199033 034 029 004 00
115330 2929N 07754W 8442 01543 0102 +138 +109 200033 034 027 004 00
115400 2928N 07753W 8440 01545 0104 +137 +109 201032 033 031 001 00
115430 2927N 07752W 8441 01544 0105 +137 +112 203032 033 028 003 00
115500 2926N 07751W 8443 01543 0103 +142 +099 202031 032 028 003 00
115530 2924N 07749W 8441 01549 0108 +137 +107 203031 032 029 002 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

Rapid scan on this morning, live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Can see three hot-towers fire south of the COC.

Thanks for link!

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop:

[LCfromFL]

This morning's Web Briefing from JAX NWS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/vBriefing/Beryl_Web_Briefing_052710_12h/index.htm

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271204
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 20 20120527
115600 2923N 07748W 8442 01546 0107 +138 +110 205031 032 030 001 00
115630 2922N 07747W 8438 01551 0110 +136 +108 206030 031 030 000 00
115700 2921N 07746W 8442 01548 0110 +139 +108 205029 030 030 001 00
115730 2920N 07745W 8443 01549 0110 +139 +107 203029 029 030 001 00
115800 2919N 07743W 8441 01551 0111 +141 +099 203029 030 029 000 00
115830 2918N 07742W 8440 01554 0111 +142 +088 203029 029 028 001 00
115900 2917N 07741W 8441 01554 0114 +141 +091 204028 029 028 001 00
115930 2916N 07740W 8441 01554 0115 +139 +100 205028 029 026 001 00
120000 2915N 07738W 8441 01554 0117 +137 +107 206027 028 027 001 00
120030 2914N 07737W 8438 01557 0117 +135 +113 206026 027 028 001 00
120100 2912N 07736W 8443 01552 0118 +135 +107 210025 026 029 001 00
120130 2911N 07735W 8443 01554 0118 +139 +099 207025 025 028 001 00
120200 2910N 07734W 8440 01560 0120 +136 +112 205026 026 029 000 00
120230 2909N 07732W 8442 01557 0122 +134 +119 202027 027 029 001 00
120300 2908N 07731W 8440 01560 0122 +134 +121 199028 028 029 002 00
120330 2907N 07730W 8440 01561 0124 +132 +122 201027 028 028 001 00
120400 2906N 07729W 8442 01561 0126 +131 +121 203026 027 027 001 00
120430 2905N 07727W 8442 01560 0124 +135 +117 201024 026 028 001 00
120500 2904N 07726W 8442 01558 0120 +140 +112 201025 026 027 001 00
120530 2903N 07725W 8440 01562 0120 +140 +110 201025 026 027 001 00
$$
;

[tolakram]