2012 WPAC season

[Typhoon Hunter]

Not so sure about the recurve from those runs Dexter, looks like a WNW track. I should wait till it actually forms though before discussing finer points of the potential track

[dexterlabio]

LOL ur right TH. and i was talking long range about something that doesn't exist.

[euro6208]

indeed. poor luzon which is the area in the world with the most tropical cyclone/category 5 landfalls is about to get hit by another system after that it might possibly target china/taiwan...stay tuned.

[euro6208]

as we head towards june and the 2nd half of this year, my forecast for this year decreases with a weaker elnino than previously forecast. my numbers are 25/13/9...

[cycloneye]

TH,I think you would like a landfall close to your location,here it is by GFS The problem about it is very long range (336 hours) and of course, with each run there will be changes.Let's see if ECMWF has it.



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[Typhoon Hunter]

Always a bit of fun to watch the long range models. I'll be back in Europe between 29th May to 5th June so hoping I don't miss anything locally!

[dexterlabio]

euro 18z run does not show the system off the coast of NE Luzon but it shows a system farther in the Western Pacific, which I think is 94W right now. By the way it is looking really healthy and a convection wrapping up is evident.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Off topic: Okinawa just got rattled by M5.0 quake, I'm sure our friends here living there felt it!

Yeah Dexter looks like ECM trying to develop 94W in latest run instead of the Luzon system, 00z run out in 3 hours, looking forward to seeing that.

[StormingB81]

Off topic: Okinawa just got rattled by M5.0 quake, I'm sure our friends here living there felt it!

Yeah Dexter looks like ECM trying to develop 94W in latest run instead of the Luzon system, 00z run out in 3 hours, looking forward to seeing that.

I did not feel it and I was home eating lunch....Still here not flying out till next weekend....but nope didnt feel it on the south part of the island....

[Typhoon Hunter]

Off topic: Okinawa just got rattled by M5.0 quake, I'm sure our friends here living there felt it!

Yeah Dexter looks like ECM trying to develop 94W in latest run instead of the Luzon system, 00z run out in 3 hours, looking forward to seeing that.

I did not feel it and I was home eating lunch....Still here not flying out till next weekend....but nope didnt feel it on the south part of the island....

How's it feel to be leaving Okinawa? Hope you'll still contribute to the Wpac threads once you're back in US!

[StormingB81]

Oh I will...I wont be able to stay away...lol

[euro6208]

blues getting deeper. plus elnino...looks like a very busy season ahead with lots of monsters..

[euro6208]

euro showing a tropical cyclone south of okinawa first week of june...

[dexterlabio]

yes i think euro again becomes consistent in showing a TC off NE Luzon and tracking towards Okinawa. let's see if it pans out. euro got it right in the ATL with Alberto and Beryl...and also the first one to hint Bud making landfall in EPAC. interesting to see the next run.

[dexterlabio]

latest ECM runs

[Typhoon Hunter]

Latest ECMWF run even more bullish with NE Luzon development and eventually spins up a typhoon south of Okinawa, interesting times ahead!!

[euro6208]

possible 3rd typhoon? we'll see...

[dexterlabio]

the latest euro run was a bit different compared to the previous runs, a closed low pressure system shown is tad weaker and doesn't come too near in Luzon...but still depicts a recurve towards Japan..


on the other hand...i don't know if it is just me but there is a persistent cluster of clouds east of Luzon, I have a feeling this might be the system predicted to develop by euro. what do you guys think?

[cycloneye]

The Euro develops near NE Luzon starting on June 3rd,but recurves to the NE later.

[euro6208]

this area already has a strong signature...