ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[northjaxpro]

Beryl is trying very hard to complete the transition to tropical. Convection is biulding to the south and east of the circulaion center. As referenced of course time and warm gulf stream water is running out for Beryl.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271214
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 21 20120527
120600 2901N 07724W 8441 01561 0122 +136 +117 200026 026 027 006 00
120630 2900N 07723W 8441 01561 0124 +133 +122 201027 027 030 006 00
120700 2859N 07721W 8441 01561 0124 +134 +121 201028 028 028 002 00
120730 2858N 07720W 8441 01560 0124 +136 +116 201027 028 027 002 03
120800 2857N 07719W 8435 01566 0124 +134 +113 199026 028 024 002 03
120830 2859N 07717W 8444 01557 0124 +136 +111 187027 029 /// /// 03
120900 2900N 07718W 8450 01552 0125 +139 +104 192025 027 026 003 00
120930 2902N 07719W 8436 01567 0125 +135 +113 193027 027 027 003 00
121000 2904N 07719W 8442 01561 0127 +135 +105 193025 026 030 005 00
121030 2906N 07719W 8441 01561 0125 +136 +108 196026 027 031 006 00
121100 2908N 07719W 8440 01562 0125 +135 +110 194027 028 033 005 00
121130 2910N 07719W 8442 01558 0122 +138 +104 196026 027 032 005 00
121200 2911N 07720W 8441 01560 0122 +137 +111 180027 028 032 006 00
121230 2913N 07720W 8442 01558 0122 +137 +115 179029 030 035 006 00
121300 2915N 07720W 8441 01560 0123 +135 +112 183029 029 032 008 00
121330 2917N 07720W 8441 01560 0120 +138 +112 184029 029 034 006 00
121400 2919N 07720W 8440 01558 0119 +138 +114 178029 029 032 003 00
121430 2921N 07720W 8445 01554 0118 +140 +110 180027 029 033 002 00
121500 2923N 07721W 8441 01557 0120 +135 +107 183026 027 033 001 00
121530 2924N 07721W 8441 01557 0119 +136 +108 187026 026 033 001 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Beryl is over 82-83 deg F SSTs, lets see if it can transition to tropical before making landfall later today.

Buoy 41012 now reporting wind gust to 40 mph.

Conditions at 41012 as of
(7:50 am EDT)
1150 GMT on 05/27/2012:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 59 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.6 °F
Salinity (SAL): 36.17 psu
Dew Point (DEWP): 71.1 °F

[AHS2011]

I say Beryl intensifies up to 65 MPH before landfall.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram, added disclaimer

[tolakram]

live VIS loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Visible URL:
wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=96&numframes=8

IR URL:
wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-80&info=ir&palette=spect.pal&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=96&numframes=8

For both URL's above you can go up to 30 frames.

[tolakram]

Please remember your disclaimers when posting forecasts / thoughts on what Beryl is going to do. Thanks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271224
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 22 20120527
121600 2926N 07721W 8440 01557 0119 +135 +112 185026 027 029 003 00
121630 2928N 07721W 8440 01557 0118 +137 +110 185027 028 030 002 00
121700 2930N 07721W 8442 01555 0117 +136 +111 185027 028 033 004 00
121730 2932N 07722W 8440 01556 0116 +138 +116 184026 027 036 005 00
121800 2934N 07722W 8440 01557 0117 +138 +108 182027 027 036 005 00
121830 2935N 07722W 8442 01555 0116 +140 +107 180027 028 035 004 00
121900 2937N 07722W 8441 01555 0116 +137 +113 179028 029 033 005 00
121930 2939N 07722W 8442 01554 0117 +136 +113 177028 029 035 006 00
122000 2941N 07723W 8441 01555 0115 +137 +121 176029 030 033 007 00
122030 2943N 07723W 8441 01555 0115 +140 +118 174031 032 033 001 00
122100 2945N 07723W 8442 01555 0115 +139 +117 174033 033 033 001 00
122130 2947N 07723W 8441 01556 0116 +139 +117 172034 035 032 002 00
122200 2949N 07723W 8440 01556 0115 +140 +116 169035 035 032 001 00
122230 2951N 07723W 8447 01549 0115 +138 +116 167033 034 037 002 00
122300 2952N 07724W 8446 01549 0115 +139 +117 165032 033 037 002 00
122330 2954N 07724W 8437 01559 0117 +136 +117 165033 033 032 001 00
122400 2956N 07724W 8443 01552 0115 +139 +113 166033 034 032 001 00
122430 2958N 07724W 8441 01555 0115 +138 +111 167033 034 032 001 00
122500 3000N 07724W 8441 01555 0117 +135 +112 165033 034 033 001 00
122530 3002N 07725W 8442 01554 0115 +138 +109 166034 035 033 001 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KNHC 271218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/11:31:00Z
B. 30 deg 16 min N
078 deg 49 min W
C. NA
D. 44 kt
E. 314 deg 44 nm
F. 058 deg 54 kt
G. 314 deg 45 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 22 C / 323 m
J. 22 C / 409 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0202A BERYL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NW QUAD 11:16:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

Pretty strong flight level maximun wind (54kts) She is trying to make the final push to transition.

URNT12 KNHC 271218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/11:31:00Z
B. 30 deg 16 min N
078 deg 49 min W
C. NA
D. 44 kt
E. 314 deg 44 nm
F. 058 deg 54 kt
G. 314 deg 45 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 22 C / 323 m
J. 22 C / 409 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0202A BERYL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NW QUAD 11:16:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[tolakram]

Latest

[AHS2011]

Sorry, I forgot. That would have a forecast disclaimer for my previous post, my apologies.

[northjaxpro]

You beat me to posting that vortex message cycloneye, but yes Beryl is slightly strengthening over thw Gulf Stream. She just may reach 60-65 mph before landfall.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271234
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 23 20120527
122600 3004N 07725W 8440 01556 0116 +138 +112 165035 035 033 001 00
122630 3006N 07725W 8444 01552 0118 +135 +117 165035 035 034 001 00
122700 3008N 07725W 8437 01559 0118 +135 +115 164035 035 034 000 00
122730 3010N 07725W 8442 01555 0118 +135 +116 164035 035 034 002 00
122800 3012N 07726W 8440 01556 0120 +132 +112 163035 035 034 001 00
122830 3013N 07726W 8441 01555 0121 +130 +116 162035 035 033 000 00
122900 3015N 07726W 8442 01554 0120 +131 +115 162035 035 033 002 00
122930 3017N 07726W 8440 01555 0117 +136 +115 159038 040 033 002 00
123000 3019N 07726W 8442 01555 0116 +137 +111 157040 041 034 002 00
123030 3021N 07727W 8440 01557 0118 +135 +118 157040 041 031 002 00
123100 3023N 07727W 8440 01557 0119 +135 +117 155039 040 030 002 00
123130 3025N 07727W 8442 01555 0119 +133 +120 153039 040 029 003 00
123200 3027N 07727W 8442 01554 0118 +136 +112 158042 044 034 010 00
123230 3029N 07727W 8435 01562 0129 +120 +120 156044 045 036 012 01
123300 3031N 07728W 8449 01554 0122 +120 +120 153039 044 041 017 01
123330 3033N 07728W 8439 01559 0117 +139 +117 154041 041 026 003 00
123400 3035N 07728W 8440 01560 0118 +138 +120 151041 042 031 003 00
123430 3037N 07728W 8445 01556 0126 +130 +130 147041 044 032 003 01
123500 3039N 07728W 8440 01557 0122 +130 +130 154041 043 033 002 01
123530 3040N 07728W 8441 01560 0120 +137 +117 152042 043 031 002 00
$$
;

[AHS2011]

are there any mountains in northern Florida?

[CronkPSU]

hoping for lower winds, more rain....not the other way around!

[northjaxpro]

are there any mountains in northern Florida?

No, but there are many tall bridges here in the city which can make driving in tropical storm conditions very dangerous. That is one of the major concerns here and generally the Florida Department of Transportation generally closes access to the tall bridges when winds reach sustained levels of 40 mph or higher. I think it is a fairly good possibility that may happen with this situation with Beryl making landfall tonight.

[LCfromFL]

are there any mountains in northern Florida?

No mountains, AHS2011. The land here is flat, flat, flat, flat (and did I mention flat?).

[CronkPSU]

Jax has some of the largest/tallest (and prettiest I must admit) bridges in the states

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271244
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 24 20120527
123600 3042N 07729W 8440 01560 0122 +136 +115 149043 043 032 002 00
123630 3044N 07729W 8441 01561 0122 +136 +113 148043 043 031 001 00
123700 3046N 07729W 8438 01564 0123 +136 +115 149044 045 031 000 00
123730 3048N 07729W 8441 01561 0122 +140 +112 149046 046 032 001 00
123800 3050N 07729W 8444 01557 0122 +140 +111 147045 046 032 002 00
123830 3052N 07730W 8439 01564 0120 +141 +110 145044 045 033 000 00
123900 3054N 07730W 8440 01562 0123 +137 +115 146044 045 033 000 00
123930 3056N 07730W 8446 01555 0124 +136 +116 145044 044 033 001 00
124000 3058N 07730W 8440 01564 0124 +138 +109 142045 045 035 001 00
124030 3100N 07730W 8438 01565 0123 +139 +110 141045 046 035 000 00
124100 3102N 07731W 8446 01556 0123 +138 +109 144044 045 035 001 00
124130 3104N 07731W 8441 01564 0124 +140 +109 144043 044 034 000 00
124200 3106N 07731W 8437 01567 0125 +140 +110 142043 043 034 001 00
124230 3108N 07731W 8442 01562 0127 +135 +112 139042 042 035 000 00
124300 3109N 07731W 8438 01567 0128 +136 +108 137043 043 036 001 00
124330 3111N 07732W 8441 01566 0130 +135 +109 137044 045 036 001 00
124400 3113N 07732W 8441 01566 0128 +138 +102 140045 046 036 001 00
124430 3115N 07732W 8437 01570 0130 +136 +102 140045 046 035 000 00
124500 3117N 07732W 8446 01561 0132 +135 +106 138046 046 033 000 00
124530 3119N 07732W 8444 01564 0129 +139 +106 134046 046 035 000 00
$$
;