ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[ronjon]

Beryl finally developing a CDO - the actual COC might now be tucked under the eastern deep convection - developing the beginnings of feeder bands. Recent movement now looks to be west.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

[LCfromFL]

are there any mountains in northern Florida?

No, but there are many tall bridges here in the city which can make driving in tropical storm conditions very dangerous. That is one of the major concerns here and generally the Florida Department f transportation generally closes access to the tall bridges when winds reach sustained levels of 40 mph or higher. I think it is a fairly good possibility that may happen with this situation with Beryl making landfall tonight.

Good point, NJP. Wasn't there talk of installing anemometers on the bridges after Fay? I wonder if the City did that. I wouldn't want to be up on the Dames Point Bridge with high winds.

[CronkPSU]

how far west is it suppose to get before it stalls and turns north-east?

[cycloneye]

The great thing that Beryl will bring to the SE US is plenty of rain that will if not end,at least aliviate the drought conditions in those areas of Florida,Georgia and South Carolina.

[LCfromFL]

how far west is it suppose to get before it stalls and turns north-east?

Mmmmm...looks like I-75/Valdosta? I wonder if that is far enough west to put a lot of rain over Nassau County - or if the worst would stay over water? We really need rain.

[ronjon]

how far west is it suppose to get before it stalls and turns north-east?

Mmmmm...looks like I-75/Valdosta? I wonder if that is far enough west to put a lot of rain over Nassau County - or if the worst would stay over water? We really need rain.

Models pretty divergent on that - most models except the Euro (which the NHC seems to be hugging) the last couple of days bring a weakened Beryl into the big bend area of the FL panhandle - the GFS has shown this consistently over the last several days of runs.

[ronjon]

Beryl coming into view on JAX long range RAD now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JAX&loop=yes

[NDG]

Watching the sat loop you can clearly see an anticyclonic flow in the UL trying to get going on the eastern side of the storm, deep convection is starting to do that.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271254
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 25 20120527
124600 3121N 07733W 8441 01568 0131 +139 +107 133045 046 035 000 00
124630 3123N 07733W 8438 01572 0132 +138 +109 133044 045 035 001 00
124700 3125N 07733W 8442 01567 0132 +140 +107 132043 044 035 002 00
124730 3126N 07733W 8445 01566 0133 +140 +103 133042 042 035 001 00
124800 3128N 07733W 8437 01576 0134 +140 +102 134043 043 035 001 00
124830 3130N 07734W 8440 01572 0133 +141 +101 134043 044 033 001 03
124900 3131N 07736W 8443 01568 0134 +140 +101 132040 043 /// /// 03
124930 3130N 07737W 8449 01564 0135 +140 +108 132039 040 033 001 00
125000 3128N 07738W 8438 01575 0134 +140 +108 131041 041 033 001 00
125030 3127N 07740W 8443 01567 0133 +139 +106 132040 040 033 000 00
125100 3126N 07741W 8443 01566 0132 +137 +109 133040 041 034 001 00
125130 3125N 07743W 8538 01477 0140 +139 +115 130041 041 035 000 00
125200 3124N 07744W 8809 01212 0141 +156 +129 130044 044 034 002 03
125230 3123N 07745W 9134 00904 0141 +176 +143 127044 045 036 001 00
125300 3121N 07747W 9382 00670 0135 +195 +154 130044 044 037 001 00
125330 3120N 07748W 9566 00496 0130 +196 +177 127045 045 037 001 00
125400 3119N 07750W 9734 00344 0125 +207 +190 122042 045 038 001 00
125430 3118N 07751W 9793 00285 0121 +211 +193 120043 045 038 001 00
125500 3117N 07752W 9784 00291 0119 +213 +195 120042 044 039 002 00
125530 3116N 07753W 9779 00295 0118 +213 +196 117042 044 038 001 00
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 271304
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 26 20120527
125600 3115N 07755W 9785 00291 0118 +214 +196 119043 044 037 001 03
125630 3114N 07757W 9768 00305 0119 +200 +200 122041 043 041 012 01
125700 3114N 07759W 9791 00284 0115 +210 +202 128040 042 038 005 00
125730 3113N 07800W 9782 00289 0113 +210 +194 128041 042 035 002 00
125800 3112N 07801W 9781 00288 0114 +210 +193 123039 042 036 001 00
125830 3110N 07802W 9786 00286 0113 +210 +191 121039 040 036 001 00
125900 3109N 07803W 9778 00291 0111 +209 +190 121041 044 036 000 00
125930 3108N 07804W 9789 00279 0109 +209 +192 123041 044 038 002 00
130000 3107N 07805W 9784 00281 0106 +210 +193 124040 042 035 005 00
130030 3105N 07806W 9781 00281 0104 +213 +190 125044 046 037 001 00
130100 3104N 07807W 9782 00280 0102 +211 +190 123046 048 037 001 00
130130 3103N 07809W 9784 00279 0101 +210 +193 121043 045 038 001 00
130200 3102N 07810W 9781 00279 0100 +210 +196 121042 043 037 004 00
130230 3101N 07811W 9783 00277 0099 +211 +198 122040 041 036 003 00
130300 3100N 07812W 9781 00275 0097 +214 +199 125040 041 033 004 00
130330 3059N 07814W 9770 00286 0096 +214 +197 128042 044 036 004 00
130400 3058N 07815W 9770 00286 0096 +211 +198 135041 043 037 003 00
130430 3057N 07816W 9772 00283 0094 +211 +188 133043 045 039 001 00
130500 3056N 07817W 9767 00286 0094 +208 +187 131044 045 039 001 00
130530 3054N 07819W 9774 00279 0092 +205 +192 132047 049 038 002 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Recon found tropical force winds more than 100 miles to the NE of the COC.

[tolakram]

[northjaxpro]

are there any mountains in northern Florida?

No, but there are many tall bridges here in the city which can make driving in tropical storm conditions very dangerous. That is one of the major concerns here and generally the Florida Department f transportation generally closes access to the tall bridges when winds reach sustained levels of 40 mph or higher. I think it is a fairly good possibility that may happen with this situation with Beryl making landfall tonight.

Good point, NJP. Wasn't there talk of installing anemometers on the bridges after Fay? I wonder if the City did that. I wouldn't want to be up on the Dames Point Bridge with high winds.

Boy, you aren't kidding about the Dames Point Bridge. Back in 2004, I was trying to get home from work and conditions had worsened as the city was getting tropical storm winds from Hurricane Frances, which had a huge span of tropical storm force winds even though it was over 200 miles to our south. I drove across that bridge just before DOT closed it and had the most frightening experience I can ever remember, LOL. I can look back now and laugh about it, but man I thought my car was going to flip over as I reached the top of that bridge. BTW, for those not familiar with Jax, the Dames Point Bridge is a cable suspended bridge which is tallest in the city at 179 ft above the St. Johns River.

Yes, the Florida DOT can now monitor the wind speeds on the city's tallest bridges( Dames Point, Mathews, Hart) with anenometers. I had planned on riding out to the beach to watch Beryl's landfall, but there are tall bridges heading out there crossing over the Intracoastal waterway which the DOT may close off access later today and tonight as Beryl makes landfall. I will stay on the safe side no matter what folks I can assure you LOL. 2004 taught me a valuable lesson regarding driving over our bridges in high winds in Jax no doubt!

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271314
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 27 20120527
130600 3053N 07820W 9766 00285 0092 +200 +191 132047 048 039 005 00
130630 3052N 07821W 9767 00284 0090 +201 +192 129047 049 040 005 00
130700 3051N 07822W 9767 00279 0088 +201 +191 129047 049 040 005 00
130730 3050N 07824W 9739 00302 0087 +199 +189 129047 050 040 002 00
130800 3049N 07825W 9743 00301 0086 +203 +181 129051 053 041 003 00
130830 3048N 07826W 9741 00301 0084 +198 +188 125050 051 042 008 00
130900 3047N 07828W 9740 00299 0083 +198 +190 122049 051 045 006 00
130930 3046N 07829W 9744 00296 0082 +197 +195 124050 051 042 008 00
131000 3045N 07830W 9739 00296 0079 +190 +190 121052 055 043 008 01
131030 3044N 07831W 9743 00294 0077 +190 +190 121051 053 044 008 01
131100 3042N 07833W 9739 00292 0074 +190 +190 122053 054 043 008 01
131130 3041N 07834W 9743 00286 0071 +200 +199 121054 056 045 008 00
131200 3040N 07835W 9747 00281 0068 +202 +199 124055 055 045 003 00
131230 3039N 07837W 9731 00294 0064 +200 +197 120060 065 048 004 00
131300 3038N 07838W 9729 00285 0060 +180 +180 121059 063 046 004 05
131330 3037N 07839W 9377 00604 0057 +170 +170 127056 060 048 003 05
131400 3036N 07841W 8971 00980 0047 +168 +165 125052 055 /// /// 03
131430 3034N 07842W 8662 01277 0046 +151 +143 125051 051 049 006 00
131500 3033N 07843W 8497 01438 0046 +141 +136 125050 051 049 005 00
131530 3032N 07845W 8438 01498 0043 +140 +140 124050 052 047 006 01
$$
;

[tolakram]

Center seems to have moved a tad north, will be interesting to see what recon finds, nearing another center pass.

[cycloneye]

065 048 004 00

Is good data.

[northjaxpro]

BTW, the first low level stratus cloud deck has just moved in over my house and winds are picking to pick up just a bit. They are blowing at the moment between 10-20 mph from the northwest. The first rain bands should approach the coast in the next couple of hours or so.

[cycloneye]

This is good data at flight level:

065048 004 00

From 120° at 60 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 69.0 mph)

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271324
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 28 20120527
131600 3031N 07846W 8429 01503 0039 +140 +140 121048 050 047 006 01
131630 3030N 07848W 8432 01497 0040 +130 +130 123047 047 046 008 01
131700 3029N 07849W 8429 01497 //// +119 //// 132043 048 046 021 01
131730 3027N 07850W 8423 01498 //// +119 //// 134041 042 053 025 01
131800 3026N 07852W 8433 01486 //// +122 //// 142039 042 057 029 01
131830 3025N 07853W 8431 01487 0026 +140 +140 145034 038 056 024 01
131900 3024N 07854W 8428 01488 0019 +140 +140 145028 034 039 010 01
131930 3023N 07855W 8431 01490 0018 +140 +140 149026 028 037 017 01
132000 3022N 07857W 8428 01487 0011 +152 +143 148027 028 029 002 03
132030 3021N 07858W 8429 01488 0016 +152 +130 148026 027 028 001 00
132100 3020N 07900W 8429 01488 0013 +155 +127 145027 027 025 001 00
132130 3019N 07901W 8430 01487 0010 +160 +121 143025 026 025 000 00
132200 3018N 07903W 8428 01488 0011 +159 +121 145022 024 025 001 00
132230 3017N 07904W 8429 01486 0009 +157 +126 148021 022 024 001 00
132300 3016N 07906W 8430 01483 0009 +155 +132 146019 021 022 002 00
132330 3015N 07907W 8429 01484 0007 +156 +136 150014 017 019 000 00
132400 3014N 07909W 8429 01483 0006 +160 +136 152013 014 017 001 00
132430 3013N 07911W 8433 01479 0004 +160 +136 146011 012 016 000 00
132500 3013N 07912W 8430 01482 0004 +160 +137 149009 010 015 002 00
132530 3012N 07914W 8432 01479 0003 +161 +129 145007 008 010 001 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

There is the orange one with the 60+.