ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[AmeliaIslandr]

It was bright and sunny with a slight breeze here on the island about half an hour ago, now some dark clouds are rolling in and the breeze has definitely picked up

[tolakram]

[NDG]

Center seems to have moved a tad north, will be interesting to see what recon finds, nearing another center pass.

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/4032/ztempcy.jpg

Looking at the recon reports it is still moving WSW, it already passed the latitude that Beryl was last fixed with pressures still falling.

[tolakram]

It does look like they missed the center, which to my eye tucked north of the last position.

[northjaxpro]

The latest visible imagery posted there by tolakram is about the best presentaion I have seen of beryl in terms of convection trying to coalesce around the center. It looks to me that it is or already has made the transition to tropical. Recon still out there and awaiting more data from them.

[Mouton]

At my house on Amelia, the barometer has been holding steady around 29.9in. Clouded over now. Wind freshing and a small gust to perhaps 15Kt just blew by.

Checked the St Augustine Buoy...barometer 29.75, steady wind of 31kts with slightly higher gusts.

[NDG]

It does look like the missed the center, which to my eye tucked north of the last position.

Lol, it did not missed the center.

[cycloneye]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the data of plane,I think a bump to 50kts is a good bet for 11 AM EDT advisory.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271334
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 29 20120527
132600 3011N 07915W 8434 01477 0001 +162 +130 138005 007 008 001 00
132630 3010N 07917W 8428 01483 0001 +163 +129 135004 005 007 001 00
132700 3009N 07918W 8431 01479 0001 +162 +131 063002 003 011 001 00
132730 3008N 07920W 8428 01483 0001 +164 +130 018004 004 008 001 00
132800 3007N 07921W 8432 01481 0003 +161 +134 328006 007 012 001 00
132830 3006N 07923W 8430 01481 0003 +159 +135 322008 009 010 001 00
132900 3004N 07924W 8427 01485 0005 +160 +133 328010 010 012 001 00
132930 3003N 07925W 8428 01484 0007 +157 +135 339012 013 017 000 00
133000 3002N 07927W 8432 01482 0009 +155 +141 336015 016 016 000 00
133030 3001N 07928W 8430 01484 0010 +155 +140 334017 018 016 001 00
133100 3000N 07929W 8427 01489 0010 +158 +133 335019 020 018 000 00
133130 2958N 07931W 8433 01484 0012 +156 +134 333019 020 019 002 00
133200 2957N 07932W 8429 01489 0013 +156 +134 334019 020 021 002 00
133230 2956N 07933W 8429 01490 0016 +153 +145 329020 022 025 002 00
133300 2955N 07935W 8429 01492 0016 +156 +142 327023 024 025 002 00
133330 2954N 07936W 8429 01494 0017 +160 +131 329025 026 026 001 00
133400 2952N 07937W 8429 01495 0019 +160 +127 332028 030 027 000 00
133430 2951N 07939W 8430 01495 0022 +158 +128 332030 031 027 000 00
133500 2950N 07940W 8429 01499 0024 +155 +138 333029 030 028 001 00
133530 2949N 07942W 8432 01498 0026 +158 +128 325030 031 032 001 00
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the data of plane,I think a bump to 50kts is not out of the question.

I agree with you cycloneye. I think we will see a slight bump on the 11 A.M. advisory.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

[NDG]

Based on the wind shift reported by the rocon, latest latitude of Beryl appears to be 30.2 if not 30.1 deg N.

[tolakram]

Lol, it did not missed the center.

Got that right.



I'm having a hard time discerning where the center is, fortunately the plane is in there.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[tolakram]

Latest, convection still on the increase.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271344
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 30 20120527
133600 2948N 07943W 8429 01501 0027 +159 +122 326029 030 032 002 00
133630 2946N 07944W 8425 01505 0031 +155 +128 327031 032 037 002 00
133700 2945N 07946W 8433 01501 0034 +155 +117 326033 033 038 002 00
133730 2944N 07947W 8434 01503 0037 +154 +123 322033 034 038 003 00
133800 2943N 07948W 8430 01509 0039 +154 +121 326034 034 039 001 00
133830 2942N 07950W 8429 01512 0043 +151 +131 327035 036 039 003 00
133900 2941N 07951W 8429 01513 0046 +145 +135 329038 042 041 006 00
133930 2939N 07952W 8424 01518 0057 +130 +130 326041 043 045 010 01
134000 2938N 07954W 8428 01515 0058 +130 +130 328043 045 047 009 01
134030 2937N 07955W 8431 01516 0053 +140 +140 324042 044 046 008 01
134100 2936N 07956W 8430 01518 0067 +130 +130 317043 046 045 011 01
134130 2935N 07958W 8428 01523 0068 +130 +130 319041 043 043 010 01
134200 2933N 07959W 8430 01524 0067 +130 +130 317041 044 042 004 01
134230 2932N 08000W 8427 01530 0067 +140 +140 316040 041 042 003 01
134300 2931N 08001W 8430 01526 0066 +143 +137 315040 041 042 002 00
134330 2930N 08003W 8433 01527 0070 +144 +132 314040 041 041 003 00
134400 2929N 08004W 8407 01554 0072 +140 +140 318043 045 040 004 01
134430 2928N 08005W 8440 01523 0076 +130 +130 320042 046 039 007 01
134500 2927N 08007W 8433 01534 0077 +144 +129 321041 041 036 003 00
134530 2925N 08008W 8425 01545 0081 +138 +135 321040 041 037 003 00
$$
;

[jdray]

What time will the 12Z models come in?

Interesting to see. And will they have latest recon data, or will that be the 18z?

A wobble here or there will be interesting to monitor.
Winds are already 15mph this far inland. She might be dry, but has a decent wind field.

Here are three of the official monitoring stations for the NWS JAX area.

Cecil Field (former Naval Air Base located about 30 miles inland)
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KVQQ.html

Jacksonville NAS (right on St Johns River)
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNIP.html

Jacksonville International Airport (north of downtown Jax)
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJAX.html

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KNHC 271344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/13:27:10Z
B. 30 deg 08 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1410 m
D. 50 kt
E. 054 deg 40 nm
F. 120 deg 65 kt
G. 054 deg 47 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 15 C / 1418 m
J. 17 C / 1524 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF308 0202A BERYL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 65 KT NE QUAD 13:12:30Z
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

Tolakram just posted a VDM, with max flight level winds of 65knts. That is hurricane force. It is FL, though.

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

There is that 65 kt at flight level.

URNT12 KNHC 271344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/13:27:10Z
B. 30 deg 08 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1410 m
D. 50 kt
E. 054 deg 40 nm
F. 120 deg 65 kt
G. 054 deg 47 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 15 C / 1418 m
J. 17 C / 1524 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF308 0202A BERYL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 65 KT NE QUAD 13:12:30Z