ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

Mark if you want a break I can take it anytime.

[crimi481]

Looking at WV Loop - kinda think W.S.W. (or S.W.) motion to continue -with slowing in speed.
Few options: Stall over N. Fl - makes it into N.E. Gulf (near Brooksville)

Guessing here -based on visual loop on WV

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[northjaxpro]

What time will the 12Z models come in?

Interesting to see. And will they have latest recon data, or will that me the 18z?

A wobble here or there will be interesting to monitor.
Winds are already 15mph this far inland. She might be dry, but has a decent wind field.

Here are three of the official monitoring stations for the NWS JAX area.

Cecil Field (former Naval Air Base located about 30 miles inland)
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KVQQ.html

Jacksonville NAS (right on St Johns River)
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNIP.html

Jacksonville International Airport (north of downtown Jax)
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJAX.html

Actually I just had a gust to 22 mph at my locale. Clouds are really rolling in now as well.

[tolakram]

Please do. I can continue graphics, or you can do both.

[wxman57]

What time will the 12Z models come in?

Interesting to see. And will they have latest recon data, or will that be the 18z?

The 12z tropical models came in an hour and a half ago. 12Z global models come in 3-5 hours from now. I'm not sure if the new data will make those runs late this morning.

[tolakram]

Latest saved radar loop.



edit: removed snow and frozen precip legend. :o

[CronkPSU]

not a cloud in the sky here in NW Orlando...beautiful day right now, light winds

[jdray]

I created a quick Google Map of the NWS JAX weather stations.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF&m ... 303b4d69e5

[GCANE]

200mb vorticity has decreased a lot in the last 24 hrs.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

If convection persists could transition.

It'll be close

[NDG]

So the latitude is 30.1 based on the latest fix, if it continues to move it that heading which I am estimating to be 260 deg, it will be making landfall near Palm Coast to the south of Jacksonville & St Augustine, if it heads due west as expected from this point on it will be making landfall near Ponte Vedra Beach.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

go ahead and take the graphics, I'm waiting on a very serious phone call but can keep the hdobs running. Very close friend of the families had a stroke and just waiting to see if he'll survive the surgery..nothing I can do but keep busy for awhile.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271354
AF308 0202A BERYL HDOB 31 20120527
134600 2924N 08009W 8436 01534 0089 +130 +130 322043 045 035 008 01
134630 2923N 08011W 8433 01538 0088 +130 +130 322042 043 033 004 01
134700 2922N 08012W 8431 01540 0087 +136 +134 330040 043 037 005 00
134730 2921N 08013W 8433 01541 0093 +133 +128 324042 042 037 004 00
134800 2919N 08015W 8425 01549 0094 +132 +128 327043 046 043 005 00
134830 2918N 08016W 8425 01552 0097 +129 +128 322048 049 044 005 00
134900 2917N 08017W 8441 01537 0100 +120 +120 324046 047 040 005 01
134930 2916N 08019W 8424 01556 0099 +132 +132 323048 049 039 005 00
135000 2915N 08020W 8435 01549 0107 +130 +130 320045 049 039 005 01
135030 2914N 08021W 8431 01551 0102 +130 +130 321046 048 035 006 01
135100 2912N 08022W 8430 01555 0106 +130 +130 320045 047 037 004 01
135130 2911N 08024W 8427 01561 0110 +130 +130 319044 047 035 004 01
135200 2910N 08025W 8429 01558 0113 +130 +130 317041 043 036 003 01
135230 2909N 08026W 8429 01561 0108 +135 +134 320041 041 034 003 00
135300 2908N 08028W 8428 01563 0109 +136 +130 322041 041 032 002 00
135330 2907N 08029W 8429 01563 0112 +134 +131 322041 041 029 002 00
135400 2905N 08030W 8428 01566 0113 +136 +128 323039 041 029 000 00
135430 2904N 08031W 8429 01566 0116 +135 +128 320038 039 029 000 00
135500 2903N 08033W 8432 01563 0115 +139 +115 318037 037 028 001 00
135530 2902N 08034W 8428 01568 0115 +141 +105 319039 039 027 000 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

CIMSS currently estimating shear at 8.6 m/s

[jdray]

Latest saved radar loop.

Is it just me, or am I seeing the Center of Circulation south of JAX closer to straight east of St Augustine?
This puts it south of the NHC track it looks like.

[GCANE]

Latest core temp profile doesn't look like a ST

http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/archive/2012/ ... _xsect.gif

[tolakram]

[wxman57]

Satellite indicates a center near 30.5N/79.6W. It's sort of broad. The recon fix may have been on the south side. Or there may be a couple of vortices rotating around. Here's a zoomed in satellite with 1 deg lat/lon lines. the "x" is the vortex fix, the bigger crosshairs near 30.5N/79.6W is where the clouds indicate the center is. it does appear as though there might be a small vortex at 30.1N/79.3W.

[Dean4Storms]

Latest saved radar loop.

Is it just me, or am I seeing the Center of Circulation south of JAX closer to straight east of St Augustine?
This puts it south of the NHC track it looks like.

Just you, center is due east of Jax. Bch.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks better this morning and close to being pure Tropical, signs that an upper level anti-cyclone is forming above the storm with the cirrus blowing clockwise and the upper level Low weakening.

[northjaxpro]

Latest saved radar loop.

Is it just me, or am I seeing the Center of Circulation south of JAX closer to straight east of St Augustine?
This puts it south of the NHC track it looks like.

Just you, center is due east of Jax. Bch.

The actual center of cirulation is about 140 to 150 miles due east of jacksonville beach at the current time. NWS Jax office is projecting landfall at near Ponte Vedra or jax beach sometime before midnight.