ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[WeatherGuesser]

As for my preps, 12 gallons for the generator, 200 bucks in cash, a full tank in the van, fridge turned up to max, 1 and 1/2 propane, both cells fully charged, all laundry and dishes done, water heater cranked up to 160 (no touch rule for all 4 kids)

All well and good. Certainly nothing wrong with doing that, but it won't help if the cell towers go down.

[Evil Jeremy]

But upgrading a storm based on intensity would cause residents to become more cautious instead of them thinking "Oh, it's just a tropical storm, no big deal." The word "hurricane" catches people more than "tropical storm".

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Say beryl does reach the 75 mph threshold, if that happens at least imo it should be declared a hurricane as that is the scientific approach. If the NHC does not upgrade it, like cyclone suggests could possibly happen then they are probably doing it to prevent chaos from the tourists or other people who are not familiar with tropical cyclones. The highways would be choked with tourists trying to escape, and there would be a bigger mess on the local governments hands.

Also, I don't know much about hurricane insurance works, but I imagine a hurricane held at TS status for the sake of preventing panic will result in insurance policy claims and issues down the road.

[Dave]

AF 308 taking off for Beryl

000
URNT15 KNHC 271934
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 01 20120527
192530 3024N 08856W 0135 ///// //// +343 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
192600 3024N 08856W 0130 ///// //// +327 //// 312001 003 /// /// 29
192630 3025N 08855W 0090 00017 0119 +317 +287 358002 006 /// /// 03
192700 3026N 08854W 9817 00284 0131 +296 +229 038004 006 /// /// 03
192730 3027N 08853W 9606 00455 0119 +275 +192 015004 005 /// /// 03
192800 3028N 08853W 9425 00631 0125 +258 +173 360002 004 /// /// 03
192830 3030N 08851W 9303 00757 0134 +248 +155 012001 003 /// /// 03
192900 3031N 08850W 8886 01160 0140 +213 +148 006004 006 /// /// 03
192930 3032N 08848W 8434 01617 0143 +173 +135 029003 004 /// /// 03
193000 3033N 08847W 8061 01978 0138 +138 +126 052005 006 /// /// 03
193030 3033N 08845W 7735 02336 0151 +118 +095 062006 008 /// /// 03
193100 3034N 08843W 7435 02650 0143 +093 +076 087009 009 /// /// 03
193130 3035N 08841W 7151 02999 0157 +074 +057 086009 010 /// /// 03
193200 3036N 08840W 6890 03304 0159 +055 +040 069012 014 /// /// 03
193230 3036N 08838W 6651 03593 0139 +052 +008 088015 016 /// /// 03
193300 3037N 08836W 6445 03852 0108 +058 -025 091011 015 /// /// 03
193330 3038N 08835W 6254 04098 0111 +042 -038 094010 011 /// /// 03
193400 3039N 08833W 6056 04360 0107 +030 -058 072009 012 /// /// 03
193430 3039N 08831W 5901 04576 0107 +018 -069 060008 010 /// /// 03
193500 3040N 08829W 5724 04812 0116 -001 -076 065008 010 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

EJ,that is an excellent point about the insurance part of this Beryl event,how will that work.

[psyclone]

I would bet against this system reaching hurricane intensity. still looks loose and too ragged and is running out of time to tighten up. still it is very impressive, espcially when one considers how awful it looked yesterday morning (naked swirl alert) and the calendar. super cool system.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ohiostorm]

He looks like a Hurricane from the satellite images I am seeing!

[cycloneye]

Folks,the most important mission has started as plane has departed from Keesler Base.

[tropicwatch]

I am sure that if the hurricane hunters report a pressure drop and winds that coincide with hurricane strength. The NHC will upgrade to hurricane status. Also, I would think that local media would tell people to pay close attention due to the possiblity of torrential rainfall during the next couple of days and power outages. So if and when Beryl becomes a hurricane. People will be prepared anyway.

Tropicwatch

[FutureEM]

But upgrading a storm based on intensity would cause residents to become more cautious instead of them thinking "Oh, it's just a tropical storm, no big deal." The word "hurricane" catches people more than "tropical storm".

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Say beryl does reach the 75 mph threshold, if that happens at least imo it should be declared a hurricane as that is the scientific approach. If the NHC does not upgrade it, like cyclone suggests could possibly happen then they are probably doing it to prevent chaos from the tourists or other people who are not familiar with tropical cyclones. The highways would be choked with tourists trying to escape, and there would be a bigger mess on the local governments hands.

Also, I don't know much about hurricane insurance works, but I imagine a hurricane held at TS status for the sake of preventing panic will result in insurance policy claims and issues down the road.

The term "hurricane" creates a host of troubles across the board, insurance claims are definitely one of those. I learned in my Tourism Systems class last semester, that tourists often don't react with reason when they have to change their travel plans. We looked at case studies of political strife, as well as natural disasters...the conclusion was drawn that even a minor event can cause chaos. What many tourists view as a novelty right now, might soon terrorize them all because of a simple name change...and who knows how they might react.

The same reasoning when into the 1991 unnamed storm, except that dealt with complacent residents instead of tourists.

[Evil Jeremy]

Beryl might be land falling close to Jacksonville, but it's helping bring rain throughout Florida:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Emmett_Brown]

We'll obviously have to wait for recon, but judging from satellite photos, it looks like Beryl has leveled off, and perhaps the intensification trend has ended for now.

[Annie Oakley]

Dave-thanks for being here and I hope your friend is okay

[Dave]

If someone wants to pickup the hdobs I can work the graphics, otherwise I can do both...any takers?

[SunnyThoughts]

DT has this radar pic on his facebook. Nice

[Hurricane Andrew]

I can do graphics for now

[CronkPSU]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Say beryl does reach the 75 mph threshold, if that happens at least imo it should be declared a hurricane as that is the scientific approach. If the NHC does not upgrade it, like cyclone suggests could possibly happen then they are probably doing it to prevent chaos from the tourists or other people who are not familiar with tropical cyclones. The highways would be choked with tourists trying to escape, and there would be a bigger mess on the local governments hands.

Also, I don't know much about hurricane insurance works, but I imagine a hurricane held at TS status for the sake of preventing panic will result in insurance policy claims and issues down the road.[/quote]

The term "hurricane" creates a host of troubles across the board, insurance claims are definitely one of those. I learned in my Tourism Systems class last semester, that tourists often don't react with reason when they have to change their travel plans. We looked at case studies of political strife, as well as natural disasters...the conclusion was drawn that even a minor event can cause chaos. What many tourists view as a novelty right now, might soon terrorize them all because of a simple name change...and who knows how they might react.

The same reasoning when into the 1991 unnamed storm, except that dealt with complacent residents instead of tourists.[/quote]

with it being this close, all it would do would get people to get the hell off the beaches and roads and bunker down in their hotel rooms...i think if they are worried about public safety, it does more good than harm to upgrade it

[Dave]

Dave-thanks for being here and I hope your friend is okay

No change, now in a coma...surgery didn't work. Time to work a misson...thanks.

[Dave]

I can do graphics for now

Do it Andrew.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271944
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 02 20120527
193530 3041N 08827W 5562 05050 0115 -016 -080 063009 011 /// /// 03
193600 3042N 08826W 5397 05289 0279 -028 -101 054012 013 /// /// 03
193630 3043N 08824W 5252 05504 0290 -041 -237 066017 019 /// /// 03
193700 3043N 08822W 5115 05712 0304 -055 -320 069017 019 /// /// 03
193730 3044N 08820W 5028 05846 0311 -067 -348 063017 017 /// /// 03
193800 3044N 08818W 4895 06055 0322 -079 -369 051016 017 /// /// 03
193830 3044N 08816W 4807 06196 0331 -082 -392 047014 014 /// /// 03
193900 3044N 08814W 4714 06341 0339 -090 -404 047014 015 /// /// 03
193930 3044N 08812W 4619 06503 0350 -105 -387 042016 017 /// /// 03
194000 3044N 08810W 4527 06654 0356 -119 -374 033018 019 /// /// 03
194030 3044N 08808W 4441 06793 0358 -130 -409 022019 019 /// /// 03
194100 3045N 08806W 4354 06943 0365 -142 -432 032019 020 /// /// 03
194130 3045N 08803W 4270 07089 0373 -154 -435 037021 021 /// /// 03
194200 3045N 08801W 4192 07227 0380 -164 -433 035022 023 /// /// 03
194230 3045N 08759W 4117 07371 0390 -174 -435 032022 022 /// /// 03
194300 3045N 08757W 4098 07405 0394 -179 -437 027021 021 /// /// 03
194330 3045N 08755W 4095 07411 0394 -180 -439 024021 021 /// /// 03
194400 3045N 08752W 4097 07408 0394 -179 -443 031022 022 /// /// 03
194430 3046N 08750W 4095 07412 0396 -178 -448 032022 023 /// /// 03
194500 3046N 08747W 4097 07412 0398 -177 -456 033022 022 /// /// 03
$$
;

[bg1]

Very impressive, though I wonder what is going on with the left outer band.
Looks like a minimal hurricane already.


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Looking at the radar from http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html, it looks like it wobbled to the south a bit.