ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Latest:



15 frame live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[Hurricane Andrew]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[seaswing]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
347 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

FLZ020-022-023-272030-
BAKER-COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-
347 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
BAKER...NORTHERN COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 347 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAYLOR...OR 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARGO...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND TAYLOR AND BELMONT THROUGH
430 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

Hmmm.. could be heading my way. I am SW from Belmont. We had a small band go through a few minutes ago and this is definitely Tropical in nature. One minute it is dark and blustery, the next minute the sun is out and it is still and humid. Reminds me of the tail end of Frances although we had no power for 6 days.

[weatherSnoop]

HH's cannot get lost on this trip...just stay with I-10 and continue to Atlantic

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop:

[lester]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY
FISH CAMP...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
PALM BAY...WEST MELBOURNE...MALABAR...MELBOURNE...MICCO...BAREFOOT
BAY AND GRANT

[cycloneye]

HH's cannot get lost on this trip...just stay with I-10 and continue to Atlantic

That is facinating!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272014
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 05 20120527
200530 3048N 08541W 4101 07403 0396 -177 -525 019017 018 /// /// 03
200600 3048N 08537W 4099 07403 0395 -176 -529 023018 018 /// /// 03
200630 3048N 08534W 4098 07405 0392 -179 -533 025018 018 /// /// 03
200700 3048N 08531W 4099 07401 0391 -180 -534 024018 019 /// /// 03
200730 3048N 08528W 4098 07401 0391 -179 -533 025019 019 /// /// 03
200800 3048N 08525W 4099 07401 0390 -180 -535 026018 019 /// /// 03
200830 3048N 08522W 4097 07403 0389 -185 -525 029017 018 /// /// 03
200900 3048N 08518W 4099 07399 0389 -185 -500 033017 017 /// /// 03
200930 3048N 08515W 4098 07400 0389 -185 -486 035017 018 /// /// 03
201000 3048N 08512W 4100 07396 0387 -185 -482 035017 018 /// /// 03
201030 3048N 08509W 4099 07396 0387 -181 -476 030017 018 /// /// 03
201100 3047N 08506W 4099 07397 0387 -184 -476 030019 020 /// /// 03
201130 3046N 08503W 4099 07395 0387 -185 -473 031020 020 /// /// 03
201200 3045N 08500W 4101 07391 0385 -184 -468 025020 020 /// /// 03
201230 3044N 08457W 4098 07397 0384 -185 -467 025021 021 /// /// 03
201300 3043N 08454W 4098 07395 0383 -185 -472 020021 021 /// /// 03
201330 3042N 08451W 4097 07397 0382 -185 -469 019021 021 /// /// 03
201400 3041N 08448W 4099 07392 0382 -186 -448 024022 022 /// /// 03
201430 3040N 08445W 4099 07392 0383 -185 -466 021021 022 /// /// 03
201500 3039N 08441W 4098 07392 0382 -185 -465 016022 022 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Flakeys]

Rain and thunder over here in Citrus county. Hope it's the first of many!

[Dave]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
415 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

FLZ024-025-032-033-GAZ154-165-166-272100-
CLAY-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-DUVAL-INLAND CAMDEN-NASSAU-ST.
JOHNS-
415 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THROUGH 530 PM...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM JUST EAST OF JEKYLL ISLAND TO SOUTHERN
DUVAL COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH 530 PM...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TEMPORARY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED.

MORE SIGNIFICANT BANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL AREA OF
BERYL...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COASTLINE THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$

[Evil Jeremy]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272024
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 06 20120527
201530 3038N 08438W 4098 07392 0380 -185 -435 018024 024 /// /// 03
201600 3037N 08435W 4099 07391 0381 -185 -445 019024 024 /// /// 03
201630 3037N 08432W 4098 07392 0380 -184 -445 019025 025 /// /// 03
201700 3036N 08429W 4098 07391 0379 -184 -440 019024 025 /// /// 03
201730 3035N 08426W 4100 07386 0378 -185 -440 017024 025 /// /// 03
201800 3034N 08423W 4099 07389 0379 -184 -443 025026 026 /// /// 03
201830 3033N 08420W 4101 07385 0377 -185 -445 024026 027 /// /// 03
201900 3033N 08417W 4101 07383 0377 -185 -443 022026 026 /// /// 03
201930 3033N 08414W 4095 07392 0376 -185 -447 022026 026 /// /// 03
202000 3033N 08411W 4102 07378 0375 -180 -466 022026 026 /// /// 03
202030 3033N 08408W 4097 07391 0374 -182 -496 023027 027 /// /// 03
202100 3033N 08404W 4097 07385 0372 -181 -513 022027 027 /// /// 03
202130 3033N 08401W 4101 07377 0372 -185 -524 020027 028 /// /// 03
202200 3033N 08358W 4101 07379 0371 -180 -527 018028 029 /// /// 03
202230 3033N 08355W 4099 07379 0369 -180 -517 014029 029 /// /// 03
202300 3033N 08352W 4097 07383 0369 -180 -494 014030 030 /// /// 03
202330 3033N 08349W 4102 07374 0368 -181 -494 016029 030 /// /// 03
202400 3033N 08345W 4098 07381 0368 -182 -513 017030 030 /// /// 03
202430 3032N 08342W 4097 07381 0367 -182 -531 016030 030 /// /// 03
202500 3032N 08339W 4101 07373 0365 -181 -537 015031 031 /// /// 03
$$
;

[thundercam96]

Saved radar loop:

Looks Like Its Strengthening In The Northern Quadrant

[Hurricane Andrew]

I'm back Jeremy.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok, let me know if you need me to cover for you again.

[Dean4Storms]

Awesome Sat. loop of Beryl.......

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... l_anim.gif

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272034
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 07 20120527
202530 3032N 08336W 4102 07369 0365 -180 -539 017031 032 /// /// 03
202600 3032N 08333W 4096 07380 0365 -185 -543 020030 030 /// /// 03
202630 3032N 08330W 4095 07379 0362 -185 -531 018029 029 /// /// 03
202700 3032N 08327W 4098 07374 0362 -185 -427 021029 029 /// /// 03
202730 3032N 08323W 4102 07363 0360 -185 -344 020027 029 /// /// 03
202800 3032N 08320W 4099 07372 0363 -182 -352 022027 028 /// /// 03
202830 3032N 08317W 4104 07364 0363 -178 -404 022029 030 /// /// 03
202900 3032N 08314W 4098 07378 0365 -185 -443 022031 031 /// /// 06
202930 3032N 08311W 4097 07378 0363 -185 -471 021031 032 /// /// 03
203000 3031N 08308W 4098 07375 0363 -185 -478 021032 032 /// /// 03
203030 3031N 08304W 4100 07370 0362 -181 -445 023031 032 /// /// 03
203100 3031N 08301W 4097 07372 0360 -180 -368 028028 030 /// /// 03
203130 3032N 08258W 4101 07364 0358 -182 -324 028030 030 /// /// 03
203200 3032N 08255W 4160 07265 0362 -177 -291 028029 030 /// /// 03
203230 3034N 08253W 4380 06879 0345 -147 -326 033031 032 /// /// 03
203300 3035N 08250W 4610 06488 0326 -122 -342 036031 034 /// /// 03
203330 3036N 08247W 4853 06095 0305 -100 -328 037032 035 /// /// 03
203400 3037N 08245W 5079 05742 0283 -075 -357 034036 036 /// /// 03
203430 3038N 08242W 5303 05399 0263 -058 -249 034033 035 /// /// 03
203500 3039N 08240W 5529 05070 0138 -038 -234 035034 035 /// /// 03
$$
;

about 15 mins west of Jacksonville now..and starting to descend..

[Mouton]

Back from a forray up to Main Beach at Fernandina. Rollers in the 6 foot range on an outgoing tide. Steady 30mph or so wind from the NNE, causing a bit of sand burns on face. Guests to 40 or so.

Rain shower too.

Off the beach, downtown FB, winds at 15kts from the N, guest to 25. Barometer 29.80.

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon lowering to operation altitude. We should start getting data soon.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 80.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...71 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...94
KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BANDS
ALL AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CONTRACTED AND DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN STATUS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE FSU PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS OF GFS FIELDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 55 KT AT 18Z BASED ON A T3.5
FROM TAFB AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST
AIRCRAFT MISSION. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY SHORTLY.

BERYL CONTINUES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL TONIGHT AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN
AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS THE
CENTER OF BERYL REMAINING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...BERYL COULD GET A LITTLE
STRONGER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER
LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE ONCE BERYL MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS. COOLER WATERS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...
AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 30.0N 80.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 30.0N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1800Z 30.2N 82.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 30.6N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 31.6N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 33.8N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1800Z 37.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN