ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

Many people in Jax are unprepared for this I'm afraid. Just had a friend on FB that lives in Jax. Bch. tell me she was headed out for Cocktails and Dinner this evening!

Think this storm got downplayed too much!

The St. Augustine Ampitheatre is going strong with their "All shows rain or shine" tagline, too. I've got a friend going to the concert there tonight.

nice..nothing like a show in a TC..... some people will never learn...

[FutureEM]

Many people in Jax are unprepared for this I'm afraid. Just had a friend on FB that lives in Jax. Bch. tell me she was headed out for Cocktails and Dinner this evening!

Think this storm got downplayed too much!

The St. Augustine Ampitheatre is going strong with their "All shows rain or shine" tagline, too. I've got a friend going to the concert there tonight.

Do they even remember the Sugarland Concert last year, not smart at all.

[tolakram]

Closer look, new convection firing south of center now.

[brunota2003]

Dropsondes that are dropped in the center are always called "eye drops" regardless of strength.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272144
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 14 20120527
213530 2917N 07924W 8432 01546 0092 +141 +109 225042 043 031 002 00
213600 2916N 07923W 8426 01552 0095 +140 +101 223042 043 029 003 00
213630 2915N 07922W 8433 01549 0098 +140 +104 221041 042 026 002 00
213700 2914N 07920W 8426 01557 0102 +136 +110 227041 041 024 003 00
213730 2913N 07919W 8429 01554 0107 +128 +118 231043 045 021 004 00
213800 2911N 07918W 8433 01549 0112 +120 +120 232041 045 030 006 01
213830 2910N 07917W 8429 01555 0110 +120 +120 234040 041 030 006 01
213900 2909N 07915W 8430 01555 0106 +133 +118 232040 042 032 006 00
213930 2908N 07914W 8430 01554 0102 +138 +109 238043 045 033 004 00
214000 2907N 07913W 8429 01557 0105 +136 +111 234045 046 036 003 00
214030 2905N 07911W 8428 01560 0107 +135 +118 234044 045 034 004 00
214100 2904N 07910W 8436 01552 0111 +129 +123 234042 044 034 008 00
214130 2903N 07909W 8431 01556 0125 +110 +110 238043 044 041 021 01
214200 2902N 07908W 8428 01563 0128 +110 +110 238042 043 040 020 01
214230 2901N 07906W 8413 01578 0131 +110 +110 235040 041 037 016 01
214300 2859N 07905W 8443 01550 0131 +110 +110 222039 043 042 022 01
214330 2858N 07904W 8428 01565 //// +105 //// 207047 054 045 035 01
214400 2857N 07903W 8435 01557 //// +106 //// 211048 052 047 036 01
214430 2856N 07901W 8419 01579 0129 +120 +120 210036 054 050 025 01
214500 2855N 07900W 8434 01552 //// +110 //// 216027 033 037 021 01
$$
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[KatDaddy]

On the way to a CAT 1 with explosive development W,NW, and N of the LLC.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram: added disclaimer

[CrazyC83]

Many people in Jax are unprepared for this I'm afraid. Just had a friend on FB that lives in Jax. Bch. tell me she was headed out for Cocktails and Dinner this evening!

Think this storm got downplayed too much!

The St. Augustine Ampitheatre is going strong with their "All shows rain or shine" tagline, too. I've got a friend going to the concert there tonight.

nice..nothing like a show in a TC..... some people will never learn...

Once sustained winds reach 40 mph, no one should be outdoors unless they have to.

[LCfromFL]

We just got back from riding out to Fernandina Beach. Lots of people out to see the surf. Waves were around 6' but the sets (if you can call them that - they were so random) were a mess - rather like a washing machine. We saw one lone surfer who couldn't make it out past the break - he was getting slammed and the wind was pushing him south quickly. There was a group of 5 young men (morons) who were in about thigh-high water and would body-surf in. Idiots. Anyway...north of main beach (about a 1/2 mile) the beach is eroding pretty quickly - like a 3' drop off rather than the normal smooth transition from the dunes to the water. The wind was really kicking up the sand so we didn't stay out long.

[FutureEM]

On the way to a CAT 1 with explosive development W,NW, and N of the LLC.

I hope recon hits up those sectors, I know they already went through the WNW...but there is more to survey.

[JonathanBelles]

New inland TS warnings have gone up in the FL Big Bend and south central GA.

[NDG]

On the way to a CAT 1 with explosive development W,NW, and N of the LLC.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram: added disclaimer

Looking like a fairly good possibility if pressure continues to fall.

[Rgv20]

New inland TS warnings have gone up in the FL Big Bend and south central GA.

Hot off the press..

Tropical Storm Warning

TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
541 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL MOVING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...

.NEW INFORMATION...
BERYL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND AS A RESULT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...MADISON...INLAND TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE...INLAND DIXIE...
COOK...BERRIEN...BROOKS...LOWNDES AND LANIER.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WELL AS
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 240 MILES
EAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF CROSS CITY
FLORIDA. STORM MOTION WAS WEST AT 10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 65
MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK
OF BERYL AS THE AFFECTS OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY SPREAD MANY MILES
FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN MANY OF THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM BERYL BEING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD
PRONE AREA. MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AS WELL AS FLOODING ALONG
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADS.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE
PREPARATIONS FOR THE ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THOUGH
WINDS ONLY UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA...WINDS
OF THIS INTENSITY CAN BREAK SMALL BRANCHES OFF TREES AND CAUSE
MINOR DAMAGE TO UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FLZ019-028-029-034-GAZ147-148-159>161-272315-
/O.CAN.KTAE.HU.S.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.TR.W.1002.120527T2141Z-000000T0000Z/
MADISON-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-COOK-BERRIEN-BROOKS-
LOWNDES-LANIER-
541 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

[bg1]

Who was that met yesterday that said the NHC wasted a name?

[tolakram]

Looking like a fairly good possibility if pressure continues to fall.

The center is too large in my opinion, and it stayed sub-tropical too long. Regardless, those bands are going to bring some nasty nasty weather to Jacksonville.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

New inland TS warnings have gone up in the FL Big Bend and south central GA.

Why that particular strip of counties? It's not that big of an area they issued warnings for, and it's separated from the already issued warnings.

[Dave]

This is a few minutes old but report to KJAX:

(5:47 PM) SURF REPORT - 1732hrs - Flagler Beach Fl - Skywarn Spotter estimates surf heights of 6-10 feet in Flagler Beach by the pier.

[JonathanBelles]

New inland TS warnings have gone up in the FL Big Bend and south central GA.

Why that particular strip of counties? It's not that big of an area they issued warnings for, and it's separated from the already issued warnings.

It's jax's responsibility to issue warnings to the east of the just issued TS warnings, and they have not done so yet.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 272151
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/21:16:00Z
B. 30 deg 03 min N
080 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1358 m
D. 62 kt
E. 295 deg 24 nm
F. 016 deg 73 kt
G. 294 deg 27 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 12 C / 1526 m
J. 19 C / 1527 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 21:07:30Z
;

[tolakram]

Delete mine Dave

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272154
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 15 20120527
214530 2854N 07859W 8423 01583 0132 +120 +120 181032 035 038 017 01
214600 2853N 07858W 8432 01572 0136 +120 +120 198037 038 031 010 01
214630 2852N 07857W 8435 01568 0125 +130 +130 210035 036 032 006 01
214700 2851N 07856W 8430 01573 0123 +139 +131 215034 035 034 005 00
214730 2849N 07854W 8431 01573 0124 +140 +124 214034 035 034 002 00
214800 2848N 07853W 8431 01577 0128 +140 +123 212034 034 032 002 00
214830 2847N 07852W 8426 01582 0129 +140 +123 213034 034 032 001 00
214900 2846N 07851W 8431 01579 0130 +140 +121 213033 034 032 002 00
214930 2845N 07849W 8433 01579 0129 +142 +117 211032 033 031 002 03
215000 2845N 07848W 8424 01585 0128 +142 +114 210032 033 /// /// 03
215030 2846N 07847W 8427 01583 0128 +143 +114 209030 032 024 003 03
215100 2848N 07848W 8432 01579 0129 +141 +118 205031 032 031 002 00
215130 2850N 07848W 8426 01585 0131 +140 +120 203032 032 030 003 00
215200 2852N 07849W 8429 01582 0132 +138 +121 200033 034 032 002 00
215230 2854N 07849W 8430 01582 0133 +138 +121 201032 034 032 003 00
215300 2856N 07849W 8426 01583 0130 +140 +120 201032 032 033 003 00
215330 2857N 07849W 8431 01579 0131 +138 +122 201033 033 033 002 00
215400 2859N 07850W 8427 01582 0130 +136 +123 205033 034 032 004 00
215430 2901N 07850W 8428 01580 0132 +133 +126 199035 036 031 004 00
215500 2903N 07850W 8426 01584 0135 +130 +120 180038 039 029 008 00
$$
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