ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

I see you're here, wxman. Do you think RECON will see hurricane force on the northern side?

[ocala]

Live weather station at Atlantic Beach.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLATLAN2

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Considering the Reconnaissance aircraft has yet to investigate the more intense northeastern and northern octants, Beryl is probably a hurricane at this point. SFMR readings in the weaker western octant suggested that the cyclone already had winds just shy of hurricane-force.

Data from the Jacksonville radar will also yield the upgrade of Beryl to a hurricane.

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[WeatherGuesser]

Latest saved radar loop:

Can you post links to those instead of posting 2Mb image files on every page?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272214
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 17 20120527
220530 2943N 07854W 8426 01559 0103 +135 +112 202041 041 035 008 00
220600 2944N 07855W 8429 01555 0103 +135 +119 199041 041 037 009 00
220630 2946N 07855W 8432 01551 0101 +137 +117 199040 040 036 009 00
220700 2948N 07855W 8425 01559 0097 +144 +115 197040 040 035 008 00
220730 2950N 07855W 8426 01557 0097 +145 +114 195041 042 037 006 00
220800 2952N 07856W 8426 01557 0099 +141 +112 194041 042 036 008 00
220830 2954N 07856W 8428 01555 0096 +144 +112 193042 042 036 009 00
220900 2956N 07856W 8429 01552 0097 +139 +117 191041 042 036 009 00
220930 2958N 07856W 8428 01554 0098 +137 +123 188042 042 036 009 00
221000 3000N 07856W 8425 01554 0099 +132 +130 185043 043 036 009 00
221030 3002N 07857W 8429 01551 0098 +133 +128 185043 044 037 008 00
221100 3004N 07857W 8428 01554 0098 +133 +130 179042 043 036 008 00
221130 3006N 07857W 8429 01550 0100 +130 +129 177041 042 037 007 00
221200 3008N 07857W 8430 01548 0096 +130 +130 175040 041 039 007 01
221230 3010N 07858W 8424 01554 0096 +132 +132 176042 043 042 008 00
221300 3012N 07858W 8431 01546 0094 +134 +133 173042 043 042 008 00
221330 3014N 07858W 8434 01543 0095 +132 +129 174042 044 039 007 00
221400 3016N 07858W 8414 01557 //// +111 //// 154050 056 044 015 01
221430 3018N 07859W 8452 01524 //// +110 //// 152046 055 040 018 01
221500 3020N 07859W 8430 01548 0102 +120 +120 145049 051 040 012 01
$$
;

[Peach]

Hello Beryl; I see blue skies, and sunshine, to the west, and dark gray sky to the right. She is rolling in; I cannot take photos as my sibling will not let the cameras get damp. Light rain so far, still only a breeze.

[Dave]

For you whose been following my other things today...our close friend's bleeding in his brain has stopped and he squeezed the nurses hand 20 mins ago...now I can give you 100% of my attention. Please hold all comments till later...we've got Beryl to work first. Just thanks to all of you for your thoughts and prayers...been a very long day. I'm fine...on with recon we go.

[weatherSnoop]

For you whose been following my other things today...our close friend's bleeding in his brain has stopped and he squeezed the nurses hand 20 mins ago...now I can give you 100% of my attention. Please hold all comments till later...we've got Beryl to work first. Just thanks to all of you for your thoughts and prayers...been a very long day. I'm fine...on with recon we go.

So happy for the positive news you received...Thanks for all you do here

[northjaxpro]

Beryl extremely close to being designated a hurricane. No matter if it named a hurricane or not, we are in for a rough, rough evening with beryl coming in for landfall. The first heavy squall is now approaching the coast associated with the westside of the eyewall.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

Sorry weatherguesser, are you having issues loading it?


Live Visible loop. Looks impressive as the sun sets, and rather dangerous. Be safe out there.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[thetruesms]

So the real question is - Is this just poor coordination, or are we looking at a strong disagreement between WFOs?

JAX office is probably overloaded at the moment. I would imagine they're trying to rectify the situation.

Everything I hear does point to just a miss on the timing. JAX obviously has a lot on their plate at the moment.

And now I see St. Augustine Ampitheatre finally got around to canceling their concert. Of course, now all the people that had to drive multiple hours and were faced with driving in or wasting their money are in St. Augustine with nowhere to go.

['CaneFreak]

I strongly agree with that. I am starting to get some consistent 75 to 85 knot readings from the radar at an altitude of approximately 7,000 ft.

Considering the Reconnaissance aircraft has yet to investigate the more intense northeastern and northern octants, Beryl is probably a hurricane at this point. SFMR readings in the weaker western octant suggested that the cyclone already had winds just shy of hurricane-force.

Data from the Jacksonville radar will also yield the upgrade of Beryl to a hurricane.

[Hurricane Andrew]

What are you using CaneFreak?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272224
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 18 20120527
221530 3022N 07859W 8423 01556 0096 +136 +123 143051 051 040 012 00
221600 3024N 07859W 8433 01546 0095 +140 +119 144051 051 038 009 00
221630 3026N 07859W 8424 01559 0101 +135 +120 145054 055 036 008 00
221700 3028N 07900W 8429 01554 0099 +139 +117 146053 054 035 005 00
221730 3030N 07900W 8429 01557 0102 +139 +114 143051 052 037 003 00
221800 3032N 07900W 8429 01559 0100 +145 +109 142051 052 036 003 00
221830 3034N 07900W 8427 01560 0104 +141 +113 143051 053 035 004 00
221900 3036N 07901W 8430 01556 0105 +140 +110 142051 051 035 003 00
221930 3038N 07901W 8429 01560 0107 +139 +111 140050 051 034 002 00
222000 3040N 07901W 8429 01560 0109 +136 +115 138048 049 034 004 00
222030 3042N 07901W 8428 01562 0110 +134 +117 137050 050 034 004 00
222100 3044N 07902W 8428 01564 0113 +132 +118 135049 050 034 004 00
222130 3046N 07902W 8429 01562 0115 +130 +120 135049 049 034 002 00
222200 3048N 07902W 8429 01564 0116 +133 +121 134049 050 033 005 00
222230 3050N 07902W 8429 01567 0117 +134 +120 134049 050 033 004 00
222300 3052N 07902W 8428 01568 0118 +135 +120 131049 049 034 005 00
222330 3054N 07903W 8429 01568 0117 +136 +117 129049 049 033 005 00
222400 3055N 07903W 8430 01566 0116 +139 +111 128049 050 033 005 00
222430 3057N 07903W 8428 01570 0122 +134 +094 129050 050 033 004 00
222500 3059N 07903W 8429 01571 0123 +135 +083 129049 049 034 004 00
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

The feederband coming on the coast now will have to be watched closely. I would not be surprised to see small scale tornadoes occur with that band.

['CaneFreak]

GR Analyst

What are you using CaneFreak?

[fci]

I find it pretty ridiculous on how CNN was going nuts over Hurricane Irene last year, and now barely mentioning Beryl...

If it has 4-6 hours till landfall then there is a chance of RI. Barring the environmental conditions it is in that is...

Irene was a hurricane and potentially striking millions of people in the major NE cities.
Beryl was a Subtropical Storm which the genius meteorologists at CNN probably did not even understand.
Oh, and it is Jacksonville which doesn't have the viewership that the major NE cities has.
Either way, CNN dropped the ball which seems to be a reoccurring theme with this system.

JUST MY OPINION, of course.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I strongly agree with that. I am starting to get some consistent 75 to 85 knot readings from the radar at an altitude of approximately 7,000 ft.

Considering the Reconnaissance aircraft has yet to investigate the more intense northeastern and northern octants, Beryl is probably a hurricane at this point. SFMR readings in the weaker western octant suggested that the cyclone already had winds just shy of hurricane-force.

Data from the Jacksonville radar will also yield the upgrade of Beryl to a hurricane.

I'm getting consistent 85kt readings in the northeastern eyewall at the 1800m level.

I'm assuming the only reason that the NHC has yet to designate this a hurricane is to avoid the panic that comes along with the issuance of hurricane warnings. Additionally, the data within the vortex message that suggested that flight level winds were at 80mph+ and SFMR readings just above 70mph in itself already dictates towards the upgrade of Beryl.