ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Damn nearing landfall. Stay safe everyone.

[Peach]

Question, if allowed; if not, feel free to delete:
I have read that a more accurate measure of strength is barometric pressure, and size. Beryl is at 992mb, within the range of Cat. 1. Are there tropical storms that are that low? I tried looking it up myself, but could not find an answer.

[JtSmarts]

Question, if allowed; if not, feel free to delete:
I have read that a more accurate measure of strength is barometric pressure, and size. Beryl is at 992mb, within the range of Cat. 1. Are there tropical storms that are that low? I tried looking it up myself, but could not find an answer.

Depending on the size of the storm, you could have a TS at even 970-980mb.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

High rain-rate on the 80kt flight-level reading makes it suspicious. The cyclone is extremely close to becoming a hurricane though.

Rain-rate has no impact on flight-level winds…only SFMR sfc winds.

Wasn't aware; I thought a high rain-rate would inflate the F-L winds in a minor way. In that case, this is the first hard evidence towards an upgrade.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280014
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 29 20120528
000530 3117N 08120W 6117 04193 0079 +000 +000 062043 045 /// /// 05
000600 3117N 08123W 5921 04454 0057 -010 -029 057045 046 /// /// 03
000630 3116N 08126W 5692 04772 0054 -026 -049 056046 047 /// /// 03
000700 3116N 08129W 5512 05027 0047 -038 -073 053046 047 /// /// 03
000730 3116N 08131W 5335 05288 0195 -050 -080 057044 045 /// /// 03
000800 3116N 08134W 5126 05603 0212 -062 -104 058046 047 /// /// 03
000830 3116N 08137W 4981 05826 0225 -071 -125 055046 047 /// /// 03
000900 3116N 08140W 4864 06020 0245 -081 -158 053049 050 /// /// 03
000930 3116N 08142W 4701 06287 0262 -096 -185 048045 049 /// /// 03
001000 3115N 08145W 4542 06552 0276 -120 -203 049045 046 /// /// 03
001030 3115N 08148W 4438 06722 0281 -130 -221 049043 045 /// /// 03
001100 3115N 08151W 4317 06933 0292 -143 -224 048041 042 /// /// 03
001130 3115N 08153W 4222 07105 0306 -159 -232 050042 042 /// /// 03
001200 3115N 08156W 4129 07277 0319 -169 -240 049040 042 /// /// 03
001230 3115N 08159W 4029 07466 0332 -180 -264 046037 039 /// /// 03
001300 3114N 08201W 3940 07633 0343 -192 -309 038035 037 /// /// 03
001330 3114N 08204W 3851 07805 0354 -203 -383 038035 035 /// /// 03
001400 3114N 08207W 3773 07958 0363 -211 -429 040038 038 /// /// 03
001430 3114N 08210W 3694 08114 0374 -223 -430 037037 038 /// /// 03
001500 3114N 08212W 3627 08252 0383 -235 -434 040037 039 /// /// 03
$$
;


That's it..headed for the barn...mission over. Last VDM still not in.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I guess this was scheduled to be a short mission:

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2200Z
B. AFXXX 0302A BERYL
C. 27/1945Z
D. 30.4N 80.5W
E. 27/2130Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Can't find the plan for today, but found that part posted by cycloneye earlier. I see nothing for tomorrow, maybe something for when it reemerges, so I guess that is all the recon for now.

[Dave]

Speaking of...

000
URNT12 KNHC 280015
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/23:38:40Z
B. 30 deg 12 min N
080 deg 37 min W
C. 850 mb 1353 m
D. 44 kt
E. 169 deg 24 nm
F. 249 deg 58 kt
G. 172 deg 31 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 12 C / 1523 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN NW-NE
M. C50
N. 1234 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 16
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 80 KT NW QUAD 23:51:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 330 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[ozonepete]

Radar and satellite sure look like it has been moving a little north of due west now.

[FutureEM]

VDM just confirmed the 80kt wind

[FutureEM]

80kt FL confirmed in the VDM

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 280015
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/23:38:40Z
B. 30 deg 12 min N
080 deg 37 min W
C. 850 mb 1353 m
D. 44 kt
E. 169 deg 24 nm
F. 249 deg 58 kt
G. 172 deg 31 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 12 C / 1523 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN NW-NE
M. C50
N. 1234 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 16
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 80 KT NW QUAD 23:51:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 330 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Ptarmigan]

If Beryl makes landfall as a hurricane, I wonder what is the earliest hurricane to make landfall.

[Dave]

Now...thanks for everyone's help today!

[Dave]

Break time!

[ozonepete]

Thanks for a really great job Dave. Hope your friend keeps getting better.

[cycloneye]

Break time!

You did an extraordinary job under your personal circunstances that you are going thru,thank you.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar and satellite sure look like it has been moving a little north of due west now.

radar is very deceiving with the large void/ partial eye. recon last vdm was just s of do west. after that wobble from the of vort that got absorbed earlier.

[Hurricane Andrew]

How is your friend Dave?

[tolakram]

latest saved radar loop: http://i.imgur.com/9tdXF.gif

Looks to be continuing to build convection around the center.

[Aslkahuna]

Last hurricane of note to make landfall in the Jacksonville-St. Augustine FL area was Dora in 1964 with 125 mph winds. Alma in 1970 was the last May hurricane but it wasn't such at landfall in the US or Cuba.

Steve