ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

[cycloneye]

They talk at discussion about the recon data.

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS IN BERYL FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER
THIS EVENING AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 80 KT...AND A
RAIN-INFLATED PEAK SFMR WIND OF 62 KT. CORRECTING THE SFMR WIND FOR
THE RAIN YIELDS 55 KT. IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE TO FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND SPEED RATIO WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL. EARLIER DOPPLER
RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATED WINDS AT 5000-6000 FT AS STRONG AS THOSE
MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT FLIGHT-LEVEL. HOWEVER...THE PLANE
MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF ONLY 50-55 KT WITHIN THIS
REGION...SUGGESTING THAT EARLIER REDUCTION FACTOR WAS REASONABLE.

[Cyclenall]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What is a sure thing is if Beryl would have been 6-12 more hours on the gulfstream waters it would have been a hurricane,but time was short in this case.

That's what's said everytime though, it already might be and there is evidence.

Looks completely tropical to me. NHC has said it is. What makes you think it isn't?

It doesn't look completely tropical to me but its more tropical than non-tropical. Its "eye" is large and convection is quite thin which is akin to subtropical cyclones.

[NDG]

Latest radar loop of Beryl as she makes landfall.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/JAX.N0R ... 595_an.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Got some reports from people chasing. the roads in Fernandina beach are nearly impassible. power is out everywhere and trees cover the 200 and A1A

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop: http://i.imgur.com/7esRx.gif

[Aric Dunn]

looks likes the mayport reporting station is sustained at 48 gusting over 60.

[AdamFirst]

Very wet night here on the treasure coast. Training rain band has dumped 3+ inches on us down here in St. Lucie County.

[Aric Dunn]

its getting close. radar can see the low level circ now.

[ozonepete]

Looks completely tropical to me. NHC has said it is. What makes you think it isn't?

It doesn't look completely tropical to me but its more tropical than non-tropical. Its "eye" is large and convection is quite thin which is akin to subtropical cyclones.

Actually if it "looks" tropical to any of us is not that important. What I should have said is that all of the data points to tropical as the NHC made clear. A large eye is never an indication of tropical or subtropical. Many subtropical storms have very small centers and many large intense hurricanes have vey large eyes, such as Ike or Isabel did. Some pretty intense hurricanes have also had "thin" convection and were quite dry. Neither of those criteria determine tropical or subtropical, just to set the record straight.

[Zarniwoop]

TWC just reported a 73 mph gust on air but gave no details.

I have to say, that I hope no one gets one hair on their head harmed during this storm season, but as a serious lurker on this board since Ike crushed me in 2008, I have missed this a ton and its great to see the start of another season.

Be safe!

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AdamFirst]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WALTON...FORT PIERCE INLET...WHITE
CITY...SAINT LUCIE NUCLEAR PLANT...PORT SAINT LUCIE...INDRIO...FORT
PIERCE...

* UNTIL 1230 AM EDT.

* AT 1023 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN HAD FALLEN REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF SAINT LUCIE COUNTY WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95. DUAL POLAR DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 3.5
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE WIND FLOW
FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL BECOMES MORE WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...
THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS CELLS OF TROPICAL
STORM BERYL WILL TRAIN OVER SAINT LUCIE COUNTY ADDING TO THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT HAVE ALREADY ACCUMULATED.

[jinftl]

In post-analysis, this storm very well could be classified as a hurricane...but that is pretty much an academic point. It would be different if the NHC kept calling it a tropical storm when sustained hurricane force winds were being reported on land...highest official report of sustained winds so far have been in the 50mph range with gusts to 70 mph or so. That's square within the parameters of what a tropical storm warning indicates. I think it is probably to going to pan out that the recon did measure winds bordering on hurricane force in the band well northeast of the center...but only the fish experienced that.

Storm is not over...but the door for intensifying is closed...weakening from here on out. Lots of power outages I am sure...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What is a sure thing is if Beryl would have been 6-12 more hours on the gulfstream waters it would have been a hurricane,but time was short in this case.

That's what's said everytime though, it already might be and there is evidence.

Looks completely tropical to me. NHC has said it is. What makes you think it isn't?

It doesn't look completely tropical to me but its more tropical than non-tropical. Its "eye" is large and convection is quite thin which is akin to subtropical cyclones.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

At least some areas of Florida and Georgia are getting a little drought relief. If the wind would die down some and just drop the rain, it would all be good.

[ozonepete]

At least some areas of Florida and Georgia are getting a little drought relief. If the wind would die down some and just drop the rain, it would all be good.

The best is yet to come, hopefully. If it hangs in over land for a while it should "fill in" and the rain shield should expand and it could dump a pretty nice amount of much needed rain over that whole area. Let's hope so.

[NDG]

The positive thing about not being upgraded is that anybody who will have damage to claim with their insurance Co. don't have to worry about a high insurance hurricane deductable.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Tropical Storm Beryl, the first landfalling tropical storm of 2012.

[MGC]

Lets hope Beryl is the last landfalling TC of 2012.....

For such a large system, Beryl intensified quickly once the storm passed over the gulf stream. I thought Beryl would only make it up to 60mph...he exceeded my forecast.
Beryl should dump some much needed rain over the area.

Cindy in 2005 was later upgraded to hurricane based on observations of a chaser who measured hurricane force winds on Grand Isle La.....so never know if an upgrade will happen with Beryl so close to hurricane intensity.

All of you in Beryl's path be safe......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

landfall in the next 20 min.

[ozonepete]

Lets hope Beryl is the last landfalling TC of 2012.....

For such a large system, Beryl intensified quickly once the storm passed over the gulf stream. I thought Beryl would only make it up to 60mph...he exceeded my forecast.
Beryl should dump some much needed rain over the area.

Cindy in 2005 was later upgraded to hurricane based on observations of a chaser who measured hurricane force winds on Grand Isle La.....so never know if an upgrade will happen with Beryl so close to hurricane intensity.

All of you in Beryl's path be safe......MGC

Yeah, pretty sure they will upgrade later. It's not that important right now as long as everone is safe as you said, MGC.