NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)
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NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)
GFS and a couple other models are hinting at something maybe coming out of the western carrib over the next week and wouldn't you know there is a large amount of convection that has good upper support. needs to be watched.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Western Carribean
This could possibly be the 3rd thing to come from that trough in the Carribean, first it was Alberto now we have Beryl and possibly another tropical system next week, thats nuts
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Re: Western Carribean
I agree, this cluster isn't looking too bad. It has to stay right there though. Wind shear is high but to the west of it, its going down.
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Re: Western Carribean
Cyclenall wrote:I agree, this cluster isn't looking too bad. It has to stay right there though. Wind shear is high but to the west of it, its going down.
well its the upper divergence that is good atm aiding the development of very deep convection. add that with a pre exsiting trough and maybe a weak tropical wave and you have whats needed. models keep the area around for a week or so which give it plenty of time to organize. just need to persists.
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Re: Western Carribean
the 0Z GFS and even the 18Z not showing much as before....does look good though....
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Re: Western Carribean
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
zero low level convergence and zero vort....might take awhile...
zero low level convergence and zero vort....might take awhile...
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Re: Western Carribean
it look like area could be invest soon if look same way later today or tonight
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Re: Western Carribean
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M a r k
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Re: Western Carribean
Experimental probability chances not very high, and lower latitude than this blob.
from: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/
from: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/
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Re: Western Carribean
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yeah was not very likely. but models get a lot of convection in the area for the next quite a few days.
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Re: Western Carribean
I wonder if it will be tagged as an Invest and become a tropical depression or even storm, which would be Chris?
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Re: Western Carribean
What are the chances that this system becomes invest 95l today?
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"People might not get all they work for in this world, but they must certainly work for all they get."- Frederick Douglass
Re: Western Carribean
AHS2011 wrote:What are the chances that this system becomes invest 95l today?
From what I´ve heard out taging stoms as invests might just mean they want to run a couple modles on the area, not necisarily that anyone thinks it has a high chance of forming. Personally I dont think it will be tagged, today atleast because it does not have much to work with at the moment, not much low convergence, ok upper divergence, little to no voticity, moderate shear, and not much model support. I dont think this will become 95l today.
I obtained my thoughts from viewing the cimss sight for winds and analisis.
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
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Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
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The other thing is. The area to watch would be the far western well rather NW Carrib. this area from alst night and today will move there and hang around. chances are not that great but yesterdays 12z runs from gfs nogaps and ukmet showed something weak.
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Re: Western Carribean
Crown Weather reports chances near zero for any development this week.....40 knot wind shear not conducive for development atm.....if the area persists into next week the area may need to be watched more closely...
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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This area should not become anything of note. It's just an area of showers and thunderstorms being fueled by a divergent flow aloft. Surface observation and vorticity maps don't show any signs of a surface circulation, and the disturbance (if you want to call it that) is under high wind shear not at all conducive for organization.
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