Fabian Slowing or Stalled?

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 2:58 pm

Fabes hasn't moved much over the last several hours. Hard to believe a full-blown turn to the north is already underway...but the latest recon fixes are only about .10 degrees or 6 nautical miles apart with no westward movement...the change only to the N slightly. .10 in 2 hours is what...3 knots or less. Hard to say if that's movement the middle of a cyclonic loop. Needless to say...this slowdown isn't something that the models picked up on...with the eyewall open to the SE in the last recon vortex message...maybe we'll see the loop continue back to the SE a tad.

I'm not saying one or the other is happening...just pointing out that one of the two is happening. Either Fabian is noving to the N very very very slowly...or it has completely stalled and is executing a cyclonic loop.

Eeeeennnnteresting.

MW

Aquawind · #2 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:09 pm

I agree a slowdown and the northward turn looks evident to me.. Also looks like it's intensifying since then.. Colder cloud top are completly surrounding the eye on the latest frames. Fabes is in debate..a cyclonic loop is very possible..

:jump:

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:13 pm

later fabes!!!! :o

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:13 pm

The eye is now more visble and clear than earlier as it is in a fluctuation fase now to more intense then before but not by much as recon had 944 mbs as their reading a short time ago down only 1 millibar.

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:15 pm

Here is Hurricane Fabian in "his" cyclonic-loop:

JCT777 · #6 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:16 pm

Nice graphic, Tom! Thanks for posting it.

ColdFront77 · #7 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:18 pm

You're welcome, John.

#8 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:24 pm

Actually for a storm as deep as Fabian...here is a look at the deep steering layer analysis from CIMMS...it prettly clearly shows Fabian trapped between two strong deep-layer ridges...which is why he's slowed today:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

MW

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:26 pm

Sorry, I am aware of those other layers. I felt like posting the initial one. Oh well. * sigh *

#10 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:30 pm

It's a good look at the differences between the two layers and the low-level high-pressure ridge to the north combined with the two deep-layer ridges to either side may be putting a temporary squeeze on Fabian. Both looks are interesting...and also show why TD12 isn't moving much.

No need to be sorry for posting useful info IMHO...

MW

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:33 pm

Sure is. I feel like I should of posted the one you did and not the one I did. Knowing so much about meteorology doesn't show with my posts/discussions.

I try my best to put my thoughts down and they don't always work how I like them to.

Colin · #12 Postby **Colin** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 4:02 pm

It looks to me like it is moving extremly slowly...but it does look to be moving more of a NNW motion now.

BTW, nice graphic Tom!

Fabian Slowing or Stalled?

Fabian Slowing or Stalled?

250/850 Steering Layer Analysis

No Need to Be....

Who is online