WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

this is what the euro has developing off the east coast of luzon...



48 hour forecast from JMA...

ABPW10 PGTW 291330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/291330Z-300600ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3N 134.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED REGION OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OVER A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290404Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATES
A SERIES OF WEAK LLCCS EXTENDING FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES TO THE SOUTH OF YAP. THE OSCAT PASS MISSED THE DOMINANT
LLCC, HOWEVER BASED ON THE WIND SPEEDS FROM A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS
AND THE OSCAT PASSES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LLCC, WIND SPEEDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1009 MB. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE BEING POORLY DEFINED,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[dexterlabio]

11.2N 135.2E 95W INVEST. 15kts.



JMA also recognizes this as a low pressure area.



LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 12N 130E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

A possible formation of a Tropical Cyclone along the Philippine Sea, East of Luzon is likely between June 01 to 04 (Fri to Mon) according to typhoon2000.

[Chacor]

Typhoon2000 is a private enthusiast site that isn't even run by a met…

[euro6208]

Remains at LOW


ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N
134.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC HAS BEEN
QUASI-STATIONARY, HOWEVER A 300141Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS ALONG
THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE LLCC ARE BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH THE
SHARPEST REGION OF TURNING CLOSER TO THE PHILIPPINES THAN SUGGESTED
BY MSI. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN A LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE
(30 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. BASED ON THE LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE ONLY MARGINALLY IMPROVING OVER THE PAST DAY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

to be fair that site has links to satpics, IR and radar images or loops and has updated forecasts or data from int'l weather agencies. i find it helpful. the TC formation forecast for this week on that site was based on global tropics hazard outlook from NWS Climate Prediction Center.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php



going back to this invest, i think the convection is becoming healthy on the southern portions and I can see now but barely the LLCC on IR loops which is north of the thick convection.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

[dexterlabio]

JMA:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 12N 130E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

looks like our 4th tropical cyclone of the year is coming...

[euro6208]

on its way...


1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
LLCC HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND A 300315Z
OSCAT PASS INDICATED ELONGATED TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM A WEAK,
BROAD CIRCULATION ON THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES TO THE
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE LLCC ARE
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS IN THE SHARPEST REGION OF TURNING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT IN A LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE (30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON RECENT
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Infdidoll]

The euro never fails to amaze me. We're fostering a mommy dog and her pups. Ugh...Not going to be fun having to share a small apartment with all of them inside if it heads this way.

[dexterlabio]

^well I have a feeling it's gonna pass by or at least affect Okinawa. Storms recurving from Luzon tends to track towards the southern islands of Japan especially at this time of the year. as for PI, the local mets said it is gonna pull the wet southwest monsoon and start the rainy season. i guess it's time for us to ready the umbrellas and rain coats.



this system is really improving right now. My bet is that this will develop into a TC on Friday, let's see how things will pan out...






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[cycloneye]

JMA:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 12N 130E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[dexterlabio]

TCFA


WTPN21 PGTW 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 130.7E TO 14.7N 126.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 302130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N
131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 301916Z SSMI
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AND
UNANIMOUS IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH A TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUAL RE-CURVE SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312200Z.//
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

Is there another site to get JTWC updates? Their site hasn't been working for me for two days now.

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 302251
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 30/2132Z

C. 11.7N

D. 130.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CANNOT DETERMINE IF CENTER IS LOW OR MID LEVEL SO WENT WITH
A CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. CONVECTION WRAPS .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[oaba09]

It looks like this will become the 1st storm that will be given a local Philippine name for this year.

Euro is showing a recurve but i'm expecting for it to enhance the SW monsoon here. Looks like Japan has the bulls eye again...

[dhoeze]

Since 2 PM until now, its very dark outside here in Makati

[dexterlabio]

It looks like this will become the 1st storm that will be given a local Philippine name for this year.

Euro is showing a recurve but i'm expecting for it to enhance the SW monsoon here. Looks like Japan has the bulls eye again...

agee...even the western part of this system could bring bad weather in Luzon esp. on the eastern side and the enhanced monsoon affecting western luzon...i believe, it's now that time of the year of rains and flooded streets,and of course,work suspensions.

JMA already has this as a TD and expects a TS within the next 24hrs:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 11.8N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 14.1N 126.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.



...with JMA upgrading, I expect PAGASA to follow..

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 12.2N 128.1E POOR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 14.7N 126.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =