Texas Spring 2012

[Texas Snowman]

Fort Worth NWS discussion this afternoon. Looks like two or three days of fair rain chances in the Red River Valley:



A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT BETWEEN THE RED RIVER AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE CURRENT WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT HELP TO DAMPEN THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT... DETERMINING CAP STRENGTH AND INITIATION POTENTIAL WILL
BE RELIANT ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ANY AMPLIFICATION OF
THE FLOW ALOFT...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION.

EVENTUALLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEND SUPPORT TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD SEE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. INSTABILITY LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
THAT STORMS COULD REACH STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE LEVELS. WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS COMING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TIME OF DAY...ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH AND WE WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
NEXT FEW DAYS. TIME WILL TELL.

[aggiecutter]

HPC's QPF looks encouraging for both North and Northeast Texas the middle of next week.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

[Ntxw]

Euro has been consistent with showing thunderstorms and MCS activity in the northern half of the state by Weds and Thurs of next week. Scattered showers also possible elsewhere and more along a cold front. We'll see if this verifies. The negative PNA prediction previously has not mounted and instead straddle neutral. Hope! NAO will go very negative so if an extension can reach to Texas NW flow aloft might provide relief.

Looks like this may verify middle and late week, Euro is very bullish. Several bouts of showers and good MCS activity in north, nw, and central Texas. Everyone else showers along cold front which is becoming rarer by each calendar date. Relief is coming! Keeping those fingers crossed. May see several inches of rain in parts of N Tx into Oklahoma.

[weatherdude1108]

Just what I wanted to see!
Maybe next time.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING..AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WHILE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. HI-RES
MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOLAR
HEATING. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THESE AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND HAVE REMOVED POPS WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
BUILDS AND EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS INCREASING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID. HAVE GONE ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE HIGHS AS SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS STILL A
FACTOR IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS MOVES INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE
PREVIOUSLY CONSISTENT MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN EXTENSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND LESS RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHIFTING IT TOWARD THE RIO
GRANDE. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING LITTLE OR NO IMPACT OF
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM BUD ON SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A LITTLE DUE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

Well it just wouldn't be fair if we didn't have our own share of the ridge, would it?

Yeah, you're right. Equal opportunity for all of us.

[weatherdude1108]

Already feeling the effects of hot, wind-drying Texas Summer S.A.D. symptoms. Starting to see things

[ndale]

I can tolerate a normal Central Texas summer (hot and dry). I just don't want another one like last year.

[Tireman4]

Well, this is not the High Pressure Ridge of Death, but it is still hot. LOL

[Portastorm]

Cheer up south central Texans! NWS is suggesting we could see some decent storms Thursday evening into Friday morning as the frontal system and upper level energy clips the Austin/Round Rock/Georgetown area.

Here is a snippet from the afternoon forecast discussion out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

ALTHOUGH WEAK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NERN/ERN
AREAS. THE PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THE UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE FROPA COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL END QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS LINGERING ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA
BY SUNRISE.

[Rgv20]

Are we going to have a Texas Summer 2012 thread? because my area of the state is ready for summer!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
340 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TXZ248>257-291500-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
340 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...PRONOUNCED HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105
AND 108 DEGREES. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LIMIT CLOUD
COVER UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE FULL SUNSHINE MAY FURTHER
ENHANCE THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.

WHILE SOUTH TEXAS IS NO STRANGER TO HEAT OR HUMIDITY...THIS WILL BE
ONE OF THE STRONGER PUSHES OF BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY SO FAR THIS
YEAR. BE CAREFUL TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY OUT OF THE SUN AND
TAKE BREAKS IN AIR CONDITIONING WHEN POSSIBLE...AND TRY TO TIME
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO AVOID THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

$$

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You can have it....this should cool you fellows off

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x768VAsOQSw[/youtube]

[weatherdude1108]

SPC Day 2 outlook has included more areas to the west from Highway 281 and eastward.

"DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX/LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY TO TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...
...RIO GRANDE TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TX...
WHILE THE STRONGER WESTERLIES/PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE RELATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION /GENERALLY ARKLATEX
NORTHEASTWARD/...FRONTAL UPLIFT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES/RELATIVELY STRONG DESTABILIZATION AMID VEERING WIND
PROFILES NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE."

[Portastorm]

Our friend in the Valley, Rgv20, asks if we're going to have a Texas Summer 2012 thread. An excellent idea!

I'm locking this thread and let's move our discussion on over to the summer thread. See you over there.